Forget the hoopla, the verbiage, the smiles, and the insults surrounding the Trump administration’s recent statements about Ukraine and meetings with the Russians.
Focus only on the facts underlying the comic book roleplaying.
Fact No. 1: Russia’s self-elected president Putin has adopted a maximalist position regarding the war: he wants to keep all the territory he claims and transform what remains of Ukraine into a colony of Russia.
Putin must be a maximalist, as any hint of settling for less will undermine his legitimacy among Russia’s hawks and doves.
The former will accuse him of betraying Mother Russia. At the same time, the latter will ask him to explain why he destroyed the Russian economy and killed or wounded close to a million Russians for the sake of a few uninhabitable slivers of territory.
In a word, Putin will not compromise. He wants it all. And Trump will soon realize that he’s dealing with an immovable object.
Fact No. 2: But Trump fancies himself an irresistible force.
He is amazing, infallible, omniscient, and all-powerful, able to leap tall buildings and defend the American way.
Trump is Superman, and Superman may not even consider the possibility of giving in to Lex Luthor and looking like a loser.
And abandoning Ukraine—as much as he might desire to do so in his heart of steel—would count as just that: a pathetic defeat at the hands of his adversary and the exposure of Superman as a fraud who is Clark Kent.
At best, therefore, the irresistible force will meet the immovable object, and aside from the fireworks, little substance will happen.
Fact No. 3: As Superman fights Lex Luthor, Ukraine will continue to receive European aid and, armed with Europe’s best army and drones, will continue to inflict staggering losses on the Russians and keep them from acquiring more than tiny pieces of territory.
Meanwhile, the Russian economy will tank, and Putin’s ability to sacrifice some 1,300 soldiers per day will prove to be, if it isn’t already, unsustainable.
US-Russia negotiations won’t change the conditions on the ground, which resemble a stalemate at worst and a modest Ukrainian victory at best.
In sum, Trump and Putin will huff and puff, but little of immediate relevance to the war will come of their negotiations.
US-Russian relations will improve, and some sanctions may be lifted. Still, after the partying stops and the superheroes and villains go home, Ukraine will be the only country without a hangover.
About the Author: Dr. Alexander Motyl
Dr. Alexander Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia, and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires, and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, including Pidsumky imperii (2009); Puti imperii (2004); Imperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires (2001); Revolutions, Nations, Empires: Conceptual Limits and Theoretical Possibilities (1999); Dilemmas of Independence: Ukraine after Totalitarianism (1993); and The Turn to the Right: The Ideological Origins and Development of Ukrainian Nationalism, 1919–1929 (1980); the editor of 15 volumes, including The Encyclopedia of Nationalism (2000) and The Holodomor Reader (2012); and a contributor of dozens of articles to academic and policy journals, newspaper op-ed pages, and magazines. He also has a weekly blog, “Ukraine’s Orange Blues.”
