The biggest geopolitical shift in the world has less to do with great power competition and more to do with people power. This formidable force is the rise of global conservatism. This new dynamo could matter more in the near term than what Beijing, Moscow, Tehran, Brussels, Paris, Berlin, Tokyo, Delhi, or Washington thinks.
Progressives at Dusk
The world watches the Davos Consensus dim like an iPhone running on 1% in real-time. How long before George Soros and Greta Thunberg become trivia questions?
Once upon a time, progressives believed they would define progress. The whole premise of the modern liberal project turned on a relentless drive for global orthodoxy—on everything: climate, governance, migration, gender, the economy, law, media, technology, and gas stoves. Even as China, Iran, and Russia, radical extremists of different stripes, and other grifters and ne’er-do-wells shredded their way through the rules-based-order, liberals sat like the Romans roasting marshmallows by the vomitorium while the barbarians were at the gates.
An alternative worldview has emerged because liberal paradises are withering everywhere, common sense dried up on the vine, prosperity dropped from trees like rotten fruit, credibility was crushed underfoot, and the sweet rivers of liberty turned swampy. However, the resurgence of a conservative worldview has also emerged because it is delivering on the promise of a credible alternative for a better life.
The left may have missed the rise of the right because the movement comes without a definitive label—right, center-right, conservative, social conservative, conservative internationalist, national conservative, freecon, neocon, classical liberal, populist, and more. They thought the right was just a ragtag gang of pirates. The plethora of names also reflects why the left doesn’t understand the right or the source of the conservatives’ global strength.
The global conservate project is the doppelganger of Davos. Rather than build a movement by defining an orthodoxy, conservativism succeeds by eschewing policy orthodoxy. Indeed, every root and branch of the conservative movement that tried to claim the right to define the right has been stiff-armed in their efforts to get the rest in line. The lack of orthodoxy turns out to be the real strength of modern conservatism: diverse peoples united more by the commonality of interests and ethics than politics or rigid ideology. Modern conservativism is about good governance that delivers on issues that impact the lives of everyday people. The word “conservative” no longer means conserving what is old; the term means conserving what works, adapting action to the conditions of the modern world, and not subverting principles because they stand in the way of progressive progress.
The Conservative Space
By working on likeminded issues conservatives are connecting, building trust and confidence, and expanding their national spaces into a larger network that transcends these issues, issues cutting across domestic, legal, and national security priorities.
The emerging conservative ecosystem is a historic and world-changing event, a surge of confidence for the conservative agenda along with a commitment to closer working relationships, significantly in parts of Europe, Latin America, Africa, the US, and Canada, and dots in the Indo-Pacific including Australia, New Zealand, India, and South Korea. Here is the basket of issues that can be heard everywhere conservatives are found, leading to conversations and partnerships that organically create a global movement, magnets drawing continents together.
Energy and Environment
Only a few years ago only the bravest of the brave would dare question the orthodoxy of climate change, NetZero goals, the Green New Deal, and green transition. Now not only are conservatives making the case that NetZero is unachievable, won’t address climate change, and is creating more not less human misery, but they are publicly mocking Greta Tunberg and embracing an alternative approach focused on affordable, dependable, abundant energy, with a balance that recognizes the necessity of achieving energy security and escaping energy poverty. Regarding energy, Trump is just the tip of the iceberg, which is not melting.
Mass Migration, Border Security, and National Sovereignty. Uniformly, battling unrestrained mass migration is recognized as an issue of common concern and common sense. Conservatives want to disarm weapons mass migration.
Woke. Woke is an inelegant but commonly accepted term of art for a basket of issues that represent efforts to impose a political agenda through subverting culture, law, ethics, and morality. Woke can mean different problems for different people in different places. Still, the anti-woke tide reflects a common desire to fight back against political warfare guised under a liberal agenda.
Free Speech, Election Integrity, and Lawfare. The suppression of conservatives by silencing free speech and through legal repression is increasingly emerging as an issue across the global space. Repression is often camouflaged by terms like protecting democracy, fighting disinformation, and social justice, often pioneered by organizations like the Soros Open Society Foundation and its globalist agenda. The tools of repression, conservatives believe, are the new weapons of mass suppression.
Antisemitism and Antizionism. The rise of hatred for Jews and Israel is a problem everywhere. The global intifada is a massive global campaign fueled by money, politics, and power used like a sledgehammer on a watermelon. Jew-hating is not just a problem for Jews. Weapons of hate can be turned on any group. Antisemitism and antizionism are the gateway drug for violent identity politics. After they perfected against Jews these practices will be turned on the rest. Conservatives fear they are next. Fighting Jew hate is the cornerstone of protecting religious liberty and battling barbarism in the world today.
The Challenge of China. There is no consensus on how to deal with Beijing’s malicious, pernicious, and destabilizing activities across the world, but everywhere, conservatives are increasingly asking the question—what to do? Folks are ready for that conversation, even if they don’t one hundred percent agree on what next. For conservatives, not everywhere, but more and more, the issue has become not a choice between systems, picking East or West. Getting China wrong risks national independence and survival.
The Good Life. Most want an economy that works for everyday people and not just elites. Folks demand good governance that will deliver opportunity and prosperity. Conservatives increasingly reject that they have to make a myopic choice between protectionism and a free market. They want answers to how they can live in a community where they can enjoy the fruits of their own labor.
Conservatives everywhere, of course, have their own issues, but the big seven issues frame a common language that increasingly allows people, no matter what their dialect or politics, to talk with one another.
Traversing the Landscape
Modern conservativism, by nature, is brash and disruptive. That said, not every activist who claims a mantle of conservatism is a common traveler. Conservatism is more than tactics—goals and values matter. Political opportunism and deception, for example, is not populism. Crass, old-fashioned populism rallies around a popular leader, with the leader deciding right and wrong, a practice that often leads to more wrong than right. Conservative populism is rallying around leaders that commit to delivering on the issues that people most deeply believe are affecting their daily life. The problem is how conservatives find their popular leaders. Three factors driving the drive for change may answer that question. One is that movements are manufactured and manipulated by money, coercion, power, and propaganda fueled by the Russians, the Chinese, the Open Society Foundation, or other malefactors. A second source of dissatisfaction can be long-standing beliefs rooted in history, culture, and ethnicity. Third, and what we are seeing the most, populism rises from a deep discontent with failing governance and political leadership that is inept, cruel, or corrupt (on occasion all of the above). One or more of these animating forces might be at play at the same time. For instance, Russian and Chinese influence operations often try to sow dissent in the polity of their adversaries. Usually, however, these efforts only take where people are already primed to hate their government and want change. How do you know what really motivates a movement?
Unpacking what is animating the campaign for political change can be complicated. The left makes the problem worse by just labeling every conservative movement a tool of evil actors, manned by a bunch of no-nothings, or led by the reincarnation of Hitler. The demonization of the right is the preferred tactic for silencing conservatives. Conservatives have to figure out for themselves who should sail along on their unruly pirate ship and who is beyond the pale. The standard is not that everyone believes the same things. As a matter of ethics, however, no conservative can accept, for example, folks that may be hard core on immigration, but also are seriously antisemites and racists. Putin, for instance, tries to obfuscate the banal evil of his regime by claiming he stands for traditional Christian values. Believing in Putin’s conservatism is like asking Hanibal Lecter to make dinner
Making these hard calls on who to trust is made harder by the influence of media and elites. There is no upside in trusting the people who screwed you over to tell you who the good and bad guys are in the world. Fortunately, today conservatives have their own huge, diverse global network. Plug in, connect, consider, and make your own judgments. Modern conservatism is a bit like Darwinism—if you choose poorly, neither you nor your movement will likely survive the fight for the most fit, just, productive societies.
Succeeding in the Conservative World
Four keys exist to tapping into and thriving in an emerging conservative world. Actions typified in many ways by leaders like Milei, Meloni, Modi, and Donald J. Trump.
First, you have to campaign and govern as a conservative. If you get political power and nothing changes, conservatives will quickly and rightly lose interest. The battle between progressives and conservatives is not Coke and Pepsi. Change has to be more than just changing labels.
Second, build the capacity to govern. Coming to power without people who share your vision and commitment and have the ability to implement change is like being gifted a Ferrari without a driver’s license.
Third, have the means not to let the left define you—because if they do, you are Hitler. Whether it is social media or word of mouth, you must compete in the information space, not devolving into propaganda or content management or restricting free speech but simply having the capability to tell people honestly who you are.
Fourth, build an independent, thriving civil society that can’t be silenced by the left and is not dependent on the party, the government, or elite interests. Foster a vibrant conservative ecosystem that makes the case for good governance. Never tie up the dogs and bark yourself. Politics is about governing. Stick to the day job. A strong civil society will generate the ideas and human capital to sustain the movement.
Progress Beyond Progressives
The reality is populists are getting more popular. The right is shifting the center of global politics to the center right. The left’s game plan to stop change from happening isn’t working. These truths are redefining global politics. They are already impacting climate and energy, migration, and social policy, and these changes are profoundly going to change the world.
About the Author: Dr. James Jay Carafano
Dr. James Jay Carafano is a leading expert in national security and foreign policy affairs. Carafano previously served as the Vice President of Heritage Foundation’s Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy and served in the US Army for 25 years. He is an accomplished historian and teacher as well as a prolific writer and researcher. Follow him on X: @JJCarafano.
