Sometime in the late 2020s, the first new American bomber in four decades will join the US Air Force. The B-21 Raider will almost certainly enter service in a period in which the United States faces not one but two peer or near-peer nuclear-armed states.
Ultimately, the Air Force might build as many as 225 B-21s, more than twice as many as initially planned, a force designed to deal with an uncertain, dangerous world.
The 2020s have proved the most unstable period since the end of the Cold War. In Europe, the United States and NATO face a Russian invasion of Ukraine and destabilization efforts orchestrated by Moscow. In Asia, the US, Japan, and other allied states face a China that is aggressively pushing other countries out of the South China Sea and embarking on a massive buildup of air, sea, and now nuclear forces.
The B-21 Raider bomber was announced with great fanfare in 2016. Named after the B-25 Mitchell bomber crews that raided Japan in 1942, the B-21 will replace 45 B-1B Lancer and 19 active inventory B-2A Spirit bombers. By the late 2030s, 100 B-21 Raiders and 76 upgraded B-52J bombers should make up Air Force Global Strike Command’s bomber force.
B-21 Raider: Initial Purchase
The original purchase number of 100 B-21s reflects a modest improvement both in numbers and readiness. The Air Force will not only end up with 36 more bombers, but as newer aircraft, the B-21s will be easier to maintain than the 30- and 40-year-old B-2As and B-1Bs.
This means a more capable bomber force capable of striking more conventional and nuclear targets, with greater resiliency against losses while maintaining an effective force.
Nuclear Tensions
The world has changed a great deal in the nine years since the initial B-21 Raider procurement announcement. Relations with Russia have turned frosty, with the US helping Ukraine’s defense against Moscow’s invading armies. Relations with China have also worsened, and China has recently embarked upon a nuclear buildup that has doubled its inventory of nuclear weapons while increasing the number of nuclear delivery systems.
North Korea has also sharply boosted its nuclear arsenal, and Iran appears bent on developing nuclear weapons of its own. In addition to the nuclear mission, the B-21 Raider, which is designed to carry both nuclear and conventional weapons, could face a protracted major war before a nuclear one, a war in which it would likely strike heavily defended targets, risking losses over repeated missions.
If tensions with Russia and China continue to rise, an argument could be made for re-establishing the nuclear alert force, a fleet of bombers permanently maintained at a high level of readiness. In the event of a nuclear attack, alert force bombers could quickly evacuate their bases, ensuring that a portion of the overall bomber force survives, armed with nuclear weapons.
The US could even go back to the so-called “Chrome Dome” missions, which involved maintaining a portion of the alert force in the air at all times, holding near Russia, China, North Korea, or Iran, poised to strike.
Complicating matters is China’s nuclear buildup. The full scope and scale of the buildup is unclear: the US Department of Defense believes China has approximately 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles, while the Union of Concerned Scientists assesses this number as 134. Regardless, the number of Chinese nuclear weapons is clearly trending upward.
This raises the prospect that the world could eventually see three nuclear powers, all with roughly the same number of weapons, inhabiting the same world at the same time. Even worse, if nuclear planners plan for the worst case scenario, they must consider the prospect that an increasingly friendly Russia and China could join forces in a surprise attack to destroy American nuclear forces.
As a result, the Air Force is facing calls to maintain a fleet of at least 300 bombers, including a minimum of 225 B-21s and 76 B-52Js. This larger fleet would yield at least 129 combat ready B-21s at all times, divided between an alert force configured against two peer or near-peer nuclear powers (Russia, China) and the standing bomber force, ready to augment the nuclear force or conduct conventional missions against Russia or China, or both at the same time.
Obviously even more bombers would be useful, but the opportunity cost of adding more bombers, versus funding other capabilities must be considered. One hundred additional B-21s would cost an additional $76 billion, not including infrastructure upgrades, pilot training, and munitions.
The B-21 Raider was unveiled to the public at a ceremony December 2, 2022 in..Palmdale, Calif. Designed to operate in tomorrow’s high-end threat environment, the B-21 will play a critical role in ensuring America’s enduring airpower capability. (U.S. Air Force photo)
That could fund as many as three carrier strike groups, 130 strike fighters, or a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines with hypersonic and cruise missiles.
It may be better to spread firepower (and money) around among many platforms, rather than concentrate it in a single platform, although of the three options presented only the B-21 is a dual strategic nuclear and conventional platform.
The B-21 Raider bomber is shaping up to be the Pentagon’s most lethal, and versatile, instrument of war at an extremely unpredictable time. At the same time, prospects for arms control limiting the number of nuclear weapons between the US, Russia, and China are poor.
B-21 Raider. Image: U.S. Air Force
In other words, there is no happy, cheap way out of our predicament. In uncertain times, civilians buy insurance. For the US government, insurance could come in the form of the B-21 Raider.
About the Author: Kyle Mizokami
Kyle Mizokami is a writer on defense and security issues and has been at Popular Mechanics since 2015. If it involves explosions or projectiles, he’s generally in favor of it. Kyle’s articles have appeared at The Daily Beast, U.S. Naval Institute News, The Diplomat, Foreign Policy, Combat Aircraft Monthly, VICE News, and others. Kyle is also a Contributing Editor for 19FortyFive. He lives in San Francisco.
