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Russia’s Black Sea Fleet Is Now ‘Functionally Inactive’

"Moskva" ("Moscow") (ex-"Slava", which means "Glory") is the lead ship of the Project 1164 Atlant class of guided missile cruisers in the Russian Navy. This warship was used in the 2008 Russia-Georgia War. The Black Sea. Sevastopol bay. This photo was taken from a boat. Image: Creative Commons.
"Moskva" ("Moscow") (ex-"Slava", which means "Glory") is the lead ship of the Project 1164 Atlant class of guided missile cruisers in the Russian Navy. This warship was used in the 2008 Russia-Georgia War. The Black Sea. Sevastopol bay. This photo was taken from a boat.

Key Points and Summary: Once the pride of Russia’s naval power, the Black Sea Fleet has suffered catastrophic losses in the Ukraine war, losing over 30% of its warships.

-The sinking of the Moskva, drone swarm attacks, and Ukraine’s precision anti-ship missiles have crippled Russia’s naval operations.

Kirov-Class

Kirov-Class. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

-Forced to withdraw from Crimea, the fleet is now functionally inactive, unable to launch missile strikes or resupply Russian forces in southern Ukraine.

-With the Ukrainian grain trade restored, Russia’s naval strategy has collapsed, marking one of Putin’s biggest military failures in the conflict. Naval warfare has changed forever.

How Russia’s Black Sea Fleet Was Crushed in the Ukraine War 

Since the days of the Crimean War centuries ago, Russia has considered the Black Sea a “Russian lake” owned by the empire. 

It is a strategic body of water that was initially going to be a theater where the Russian navy dominated during the war in Ukraine

I once even wrote that the Russian navy could conduct a successful amphibious operation in the beginning of the conflict to take Odessa. 

That never happened, and I mistakenly overestimated the ability of the Black Sea fleet to project power and conduct decisive operations.

It Started with the Moskva Sinking

The embarrassment for Vladimir Putin’s maritime branch began with the loss of the Moskva flagship, a modern missile cruiser that was the pride of his fleet. 

The Ukrainians sunk it with Neptune anti-ship missiles in April 2022, and Volodymyr Zelensky’s military enjoyed a huge asymmetric and public relations win.

Since then, the situation hasn’t improved as the Russians have lost numerous ships from the Black Sea fleet. 

They witnessed the sinking of 15 of 36 Russian naval vessels – mainly from drone attacks.

Ukraine Employs Asymmetric Anti-Access Measures

The Black Sea vessels were once able to launch cruise missiles at Ukraine, but the ships themselves must stay out of range of Ukraine’s anti-ship missiles

This is not what Putin and his admirals expected. Ukraine does not even have a robust navy, and the Russians have already lost the initiative and overall means to wage war. 

Kirov-Class

Kirov-Class. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Things started well for the Russian military when it annexed Crimea in 2014 and took complete control of the key naval port of Sevastopol.

 Then, the Russian navy was set up for success. But after heavy losses against Ukraine – the fleet must remain on the eastern section of the Black Sea – hardly dominating the “lake.” And to add insult to injury, the Russians withdrew all warships from Crimea – effectively losing the battle of the Black Sea.

Drones and Ship-killing Missiles Save the Day for Ukraine

Those drones and anti-ship cruise missiles the Ukrainians deployed were devastatingly effective. 

There were once 74 Russian warships spread around the Black Sea before the war, and Russia lost more than 30 percent of them in just three years. The British Ministry of Defense said the Russian Black Sea fleet became “functionally inactive” in the spring of 2024.

This means the Russian navy is unable to bombard the Ukrainians and re-supply forces in the southern part of the country. Ukraine can now export as much grain and other food as it did before the war – ending the Russian blockade.  

Kilo-Class

Pictured is a Kilo-Class Russian Submarine in the English Channel. The image was taken from Royal Navy Wildcat HMA2 Helicopter of 815 Naval Air Squadron. Kilo class is the NATO reporting name for the diesel-electric attack submarine.

The Black Sea fleet was once a topic that Putin’s propaganda mill trumpeted after the seizure of Crimea. The vaunted vessels turned out to be over-rated. This was a surprise to me as I believed that the Black Sea fleet would control the war.

 I did not foresee the use of Ukrainian missiles and drones that have incapacitated Putin’s navy in the Black Sea. Now, the Russian state-run media channels ignore the Black Sea fleet and do not report on how badly it has been defeated in the war.

The Black Sea fleet was initially supposed to use its long-range Kalibr land-attack cruise missiles for “shock and awe” displays that would frighten Ukraine into submission. 

These worked well at the beginning of the war, but they are no longer a factor since the Russian losses and the re-positioning of the fleet.

A Game Changer

Russia’s naval struggles have likely alerted U.S. and NATO battle planners about the efficacy of the navy in any conflict. Anti-ship missiles and drones can deny sea access to strategic waters. 

China is deploying such an anti-access/ area denial gambit with its own anti-ship missiles that are aimed at enemy vessels that sail near Taiwan and Okinawa.

Russian Navy Assault Ship.

A Russian Federation Navy Ropuchhka II amphibious assault ship lies at anchor near Vladivostok, Russia, on Aug. 16, 1996, as the ship readies for Exercise Cooperation From the Sea ’96. U.S. Navy and Marine Corps units of the 7th Fleet and Russian Federation Navy units are conducting the exercise near the port city of Vladivostok. The purpose of the exercise is to improve interoperability with Russian military forces in conducting disaster relief and humanitarian missions. Personnel exchanges and training will promote cooperation and understanding between the U.S. and Russian Federation Naval Forces. DoD photo by Petty Officer 2nd Class Jeffrey Viano, U.S. Navy.

Putin’s admirals are likely turning Putin’s attention to the Arctic region, where the Northern Fleet has a better strategic hold. Meanwhile, 

Russian ships have also struggled in the Mediterranean. Moscow’s vessels often catch fire there, and they do not have proper maintenance crews and capabilities that can keep them sailing without mishaps. Russia may also lose its critical naval base in Tartus, Syria.

The Black Sea Fleet Meets New Tech and Losses 

The Black Sea fleet has been defeated by asymmetric means. It is no longer a factor in the war. Ukraine has surprised the world and other countries’ navies, including those of China and the United States, who are learning lessons about modern naval warfare.

In the present and future in East Asia, it will be a game played by anti-ship missiles and drones. 

Many ships may have to stay out of range of enemy weapons. So, flooding the zone with many mighty vessels to dominate a naval theater is not as effective as it once was.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood 

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.

Written By

Now serving as 1945s Defense and National Security Editor, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare. He is an Emerging Threats expert and former U.S. Army Infantry officer.

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