Ever since its announcement last week, Boeing’s F-47 NGAD has been making headlines around the world. Lauded for its advanced capabilities, the fighter essentially represents America’s commitment to maintaining air superiority in the face of emerging threats like China.
However, before everyone gets too excited, it is important to examine the F-47 through a different lens.
The F-47, because of its advanced specs, is an extremely expensive piece of military hardware. To offset this cost, President Donald Trump suggested selling the fighter to our allies, but given the current geopolitical climate, will anyone want the F-47?
F-47: Another Budget Breaker?
The F-47 promises not only to maintain American air power but to reshape the future of warfare as a whole. With advanced avionics, stealth technology, and electronics, the new fighter on paper certainly seems to live up to that promise.
However, it comes at an incredible price.
Prior to 2025, the NGAD project was the Air Force’s most expensive project, with tens of billions of dollars allocated to it. Before the F-47 announcement, a single NGAD fighter was estimated to cost around $300 million per aircraft.
If this price holds up for the F-47, that will make the fighter the most expensive fighter jet on the planet, with no close competitors in that regard.
Thankfully, it looks like the new fighter has been reined in a bit. Although the price of the fighter cannot be disclosed yet due to secrecy, U.S. Air Force Chief Gen. David Allvin stated that “Compared to the F-22, the F-47 will cost less and […] we will have more of the F-47s in our inventory.”
Despite the F-47 incorporating better technology than the F-22, it will be cheaper and built in higher quantities than the Raptor. This is promising, though it still leaves its fair share of questions. A single F-22 costs around $150 million to produce, and an F-35 costs around $100 million to produce.
I think it’s fair to expect the F-47 to cost around $110 million unless the price doesn’t increase (which is more than likely).
The F-47 is expected to enter service around the 2030s, although President Trump expressed hopes that the aircraft will be completed sooner. Given the history of the F-35 and B-21, delays on a project like this are almost certainly inevitable.
Trump also claimed that an experimental version of the F-47 has been flying already for the past few years, similar to what Will Roper, then Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics, said in 2020.
An NGAD experimental frame was supposedly flown as far back as 2015. However, given how much the NGAD was changed/redesigned throughout its lifetime, it is unlikely that whatever was flown back then will have much resemblance to the final F-47.
The F-47 has its share of promises, but it also has its share of concerns, primarily its economic requirements. With several billion allocated to its development and another several billion requested for production, the F-47 is one of the most costly endeavors undertaken by the USAF, which is certainly saying something in light of the Air Force’s other ambitious projects. With so much investment already and little more to show than CGI renditions, critics are worried that the F-47 may not be as complete as President Trump and Gen. Allvin claim it is.
Can Exports Offset the Cost of the F-47?
President Trump mentioned that several allied nations expressed interest in the F-47, hinting at a potential downgraded variant for exports.
This is an interesting development, considering the F-22 was never approved for export due to its sophisticated technology. Assuming the F-47 is cleared for export, it would certainly help to alleviate the staggeringly high development/production costs.
For some years now, Europe has been working on its own sixth-generation projects. Italy, Japan, and the U.K. have been working on the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP). Meanwhile, France, Germany, and Spain have been working on their Future Combat Air System (FCAS).
Neither of these joint projects has turned out to have any tangible results aside from mockups and CGI renditions. The F-47 would be a fine addition to many European air forces that are looking to expand their air power to counter the threat posed by Russia.
Japan would also benefit from having the new fighter in its arsenal, especially now that China is flying its own sixth-generation aircraft.
The F-47 and Geopolitics
However, it is too early to talk about exporting the new fighter. Aside from the aircraft physically not being ready, recent geopolitical trends have been forcing Europe to reevaluate its reliance on the U.S., and many European nations have been looking to other partners such as France to provide military aircraft.
While this sentiment may be temporary, especially considering Europe’s current industrial state, the F-47 is entering into an awkward geopolitical climate.
The new stealth fighter has many hurdles to conquer before it enters service. Its monumental cost is a significant challenge that will no doubt hamper production. Additionally, cost overruns and delays are always a possibility with ambitious projects like this.
While international exports would certainly help, relations between the U.S. and Europe are currently and will likely remain tense until the end of Trump’s term.
Only time will tell if the new fighter can overcome all these challenges.
About the Author: Isaac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a 19FortyFive Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
