Iran, in alignment with Russia, represents a fundamental threat to the interests of the United States, Israel, and Azerbaijan in the Middle East and the Caucasus. While President Trump pursues a ceasefire in Ukraine, his administration seeks to expand the Abraham Accords, pacify and de-Hamasify Gaza, and strengthen ties with America’s Middle Eastern allies.
Iran has already amassed sufficient highly enriched uranium to produce several atomic warheads while expanding military collaboration with Russia based on a recent defense and security treaty. Just recently, the Kremlin, aiming to enhance its importance to Washington while retaining Iran as an ally, began proclaiming and signaling publicly its readiness to mediate in nuclear talks between Iran and the US.
Readers of the Iranian press will readily see that Iran is concerned about Israel and Trump’s alleged plans to ally with Azerbaijan. The Iranian government has taken notice of two reports on Azerbaijan’s role in Israel’s regional security system published by the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (BESA), one of Israel’s leading analytical institutions.
On March 1, the newspaper Iran Daily published an article on its front page titled “Israel’s Growing Footprint In Azerbaijan” that raises a red alert calling on all Iranian state structures to pay attention to BESA’s materials concerning the trilateral alliance between Washington, Jerusalem, and Baku.
Iran Daily serves as the mouthpiece of the Iranian Presidential Administration and plays a key role in disseminating the government’s official position on foreign policy issues. The prospect of a triple alliance, entente, or even a strategic alignment among these three powers stirs anxiety at the highest levels of Iran’s government. Since states always try to understand what their opponent will do next, the Iran Daily publication suggests that Iranian authorities take seriously not only Israel’s growing presence in the South Caucasus but also the new US administration’s plans to expand the Abraham Accords.
They also clearly take seriously American threats of “maximum pressure” and Israel’s advocacy of an Israeli, American, or joint US-Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear complex while Iran is weak. Other articles in the Iranian press also highlight Baku’s strategic role in securing Israeli interests, including intelligence activities and energy security.
For many years, Iran has maintained close ties with Armenia, driven not only by economic interests but also by a strategic desire to prevent the strengthening of Turkey and Azerbaijan in the region. Amid growing cooperation between Baku and Jerusalem, Tehran continues to provide political and economic support to Yerevan, considering it a counterbalance to Azerbaijan and Turkey, and most importantly, a geopolitical asset against Israel.
At the same time, Iran’s relationship with Azerbaijan remains complex. Despite economic cooperation, Iran perceives Baku’s strengthening ties with Israel as a serious challenge. Tehran seeks to increase its influence through diplomatic and military cooperation with other regional players, such as Russia. This cooperation is encapsulated in the recent Russo-Iranian treaty.
Donald Trump in Play
Donald Trump’s return to power has reinforced calls for stronger ties between Armenia and Iran. How should the US respond to Iran’s strategy? Iran is highly concerned about the emerging US-Azerbaijan partnership and the increasing military and economic cooperation between Azerbaijan, Israel, and Western countries. Iran fears lifting sanctions under Section 907 of Public Law 102-511, which could expand military support for Azerbaijan. There is also deep concern about US efforts to involve Azerbaijan in regional security programs to contain Iran.
Several conclusions follow from this. First, the BESA report suggests that Iran is visibly agitated about this potential “triple entente” of the US, Azerbaijan, and Israel. A strong partnership between Jerusalem, Baku, and Washington is emerging, so a tripartite strategic alignment becomes possible in Iran’s eyes. Secondly, this suggests that building such an alignment may make great sense in advancing all three states’ interests in the Middle East and the Caucasus to stabilize those regions and help neutralize Iranian threats. Third, the prospect of this strategic alignment attests to the success of Trump’s maximum pressure merely weeks after it was announced.
Iran earlier this month signaled willingness to negotiate with Washington even as it remains defiant towards Jerusalem. Russia’s offer to mediate talks further indicates that Tehran may be looking for a way forward with Washington. So, while much of Trump’s foreign policy has gotten off to a rocky start, the consolidation and potential expansion of the partnership between Israel and Azerbaijan may be a success for Washington if it can be used to help force Iran into shutting down its nuclear weapons program, curbing ballistic missile deployment, and reversing its proxy-based aggressive policies in the Middle East and the Caucasus.
Israel recognizes the importance of the South Caucasus and sees Azerbaijan as a key ally in the region. Iran seeks to counteract these developments by leveraging its alliance with Russia and Armenia and intensifying its diplomacy.
F-15I Ra’am. Image Credit: IDF.
Amid this geopolitical competition, the new US administration must develop a comprehensive strategy to strengthen its allies and counter hostile actions from Iran. Serious challenges require new strategic coalitions and realistic solutions.
About the Author: Dr. Stephen Blank
Dr. Stephen J. Blank is a Non-Resident Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program. He has published over 900 articles and monographs on Soviet/Russian, U.S., Asian, and European military and foreign policies, testified frequently before Congress on Russia, China, and Central Asia, consulted for the Central Intelligence Agency, major think tanks and foundations, chaired major international conferences in the US and in Florence; Prague; and London, and has been a commentator on foreign affairs in the media in the US and abroad. He has also advised major corporations on investing in Russia and is a consultant for the Gerson Lehrmann Group. He is the author of Russo-Chinese Energy Relations: Politics in Command (London: Global Markets Briefing, 2006), and Natural Allies? Regional Security in Asia and Prospects for Indo-American Strategic Cooperation (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, 2005). Dr. Blank is also the author of The Sorcerer as Apprentice: Stalin’s Commissariat of Nationalities (Greenwood, 1994); and the co-editor of The Soviet Military and the Future (Greenwood, 1992).
The Al U Know
March 7, 2025 at 11:14 am
What about the Azerbaijani animal that, let loose from the Russian leash and given its sharp teeth from Turkey, proceeded to repeatedly crush the Armenian people?
Armenia, its army is rebuilding.
So they are a non player.
Turkey went genocidal on Armenia before, and seeks to destabilize Syria, berate Greece. But they are a NATO ally, and giving them inches they will take meters.
The West will have to pivot to toning them down when they start chaffing on the US’ other ally Saudi.
Azerbaijan, how trustworthy are they, how much do they work in concert with Russia?
Alliances don’t last forever, and attempts for empire, glory and quick victories don’t pan out.
-The Al U Know