Article Summary: The F-47, the U.S. Air Force’s next-generation fighter, has ignited excitement but also skepticism.
-Despite impressive promises—stealth, supercruise, and drone collaboration—past experiences with programs like the costly F-22 and troubled F-35 raise concerns about affordability and feasibility.
Key Worry: With a rumored $300 million per-plane cost, technical complexities, inflation, and potential budget issues, the F-47 faces significant challenges.
F-47: The New F-22 Raptor?
Few details have been revealed about the F-47, the U.S. Air Force’s new next-generation fighter.
But the blurry or shadowed artist’s renderings released by the U.S. Air Force were enough to make aviation buffs swoon. There will be endless discussions online over the stealthy shape of the aircraft’s fuselage and tail, its supercruise capability to fly supersonic without burning too much fuel, and the potential of a manned fighter designed from scratch to work with a bodyguard of drones.
For their part, Wall Street analysts will focus on the much needed boost that Boeing got from winning the $20 billion Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) contract, with the potential for hundreds of billions more. And, what losing the contest means for Lockheed Martin, manufacturer of the F-35, itself an aircraft with a troubled history.
But the larger question is this: what are the actual chances for a sophisticated and expensive manned fighter to be built in the second quarter of the 21st Century, otherwise known as the Drone Age? It’s easy for a President to hold a press conference, and the Pentagon to release a few ambiguous drawings. It’s another to go complete the full development process – and build the complex manufacturing facilities – to build a modern cutting-edge combat aircraft.
In 2024, then-Secretary of Defense Frank Kendall paused the NGAD program amid reports that the F-47 would cost $300 million apiece, or triple the price of an F-35 (a program battered by enormous cost overruns and development glitches). Considering today’s inflation, supply chain disruptions from real wars and trade wars, and the bumpy history of big-ticket Pentagon projects, $300 million might end up being a bargain.
There is also reason for skepticism about the Air Force’s promise that the F-47 will fly during the Trump administration. The NGAD program began in 2018, and there appear to have been various prototypes flying over the last five years, including some from DARPA. But deploying a fully operational next-generation fighter by the time Trump leaves office in early 2029 is far more challenging.
The F-47 is supposed to be the successor to the fifth-generation F-22 Raptor, which first flew in 1997. That’s not exactly reassuring. The F-22 – or the Advanced Tactical Fighter, as the project was originally known — was conceived in the early 1980s as a replacement for the 1970s F-15 and F-16 fighters. Yet the F-22 didn’t make its maiden flight until 1997.
It’s not correct to say that the F-22 was canceled. But it is correct to say that the program was sharply curtailed from initial plans to purchase 750 of them. In the end, only 187 were built. The Air Force still flies the Raptor – which is considered an extremely capable air superiority fighter — but it is the F-35 that became the backbone of U.S. tactical aviation.
The F-22 was partly a victim of bad timing. It entered service after the Cold War ended, when the Pentagon budget was cut by the Clinton administration. In the early 2000s, U.S. military resources were focused on counterinsurgency in the Middle East, rather than big-ticket conventional warfare items like fighters.
Whatever the impressive capabilities of the F-22 – including stealth and supercruise – what really doomed the program was a price tag that was astounding by today’s standards. “When the final aircraft was delivered in 2012, the F-22 acquisition program was completed at a total estimated cost of over $67 billion,” according to a 2014 Government Accountability Office report.
Shown is a graphical artist rendering of the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) Platform. The rendering highlights the Air Force’s sixth generation fighter, the F-47. The NGAD Platform will bring lethal, next-generation technologies to ensure air superiority for the Joint Force in any conflict. (U.S. Air Force graphic)
Each F-22 cost an estimated $350 million, when even a F-35 – hardly a budget aircraft – costs around $100 million each. Buying several hundred F-22s was simply not affordable, and manufacturing a limited number of planes only drove up the cost.
The same fate doesn’t necessarily await the F-47. It is quite possible that the Air Force – and Boeing, and Congress and the White House – will have learned lessons from the F-22 and F-35 programs. But it is also possible that should the F-47 program experience cost overruns and technical problems, its wings could be clipped.
About the Author: Michael Peck
Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Business Insider, Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn
