Summary and Key Points: The U.S. Air Force’s F-47 Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter jet is poised to revolutionize aerial warfare, blending stealth, speed, drone-control capability, and advanced weaponry. The program faces critical decisions about cost and quantity.
-The Problem: Will There Be Too Few? While analysts debate exact numbers—between 50 and 100—price will determine feasibility. Earlier estimates of $300 million per aircraft must decrease to around $100 million to ensure viability. Coupled with the B-21 Raider bomber, the F-47 can deliver overwhelming capability against adversaries like China and Russia.
-Timely, cost-effective production is essential for maintaining U.S. air superiority, especially considering China’s rapid advances with its own sixth-generation aircraft.
How Many F-47s Are Needed for a Great Power War?
What we know about the F-47 Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter is exciting. It will be ultra-stealthy with powerful engines that could push out MACH 2 or 3 speed. The F-47 can be a drone quarterback that controls the unmanned Collaborative Combat Aircraft which will push the F-47 to make better ground attacks with targeting and reconnaissance data.
The NGAD will also be able to fire hypersonic weapons and perhaps lasers plus the capability to launch nuclear-tipped missiles.
How Much Will the Air Force Spend on the F-47?
What we don’t know is the price tag and how many F-47s will be produced. The NGAD program could take its cues from the B-21 Raider. Most defense analysts believe there will be at least 100 new stealth Raider bombers. Some Air Force generals are calling for more B-21s – maybe even as many as 150.
Shock and Awe 2.0
Let’s begin with assuming that the Air Force will order 100 F-47s and go from there. This would be enough to do significant damage to the enemy. If the F-47, F-35, and B-21 fly together for an early attack during Day One of potential warfare against China, this would enable a “Shock and Awe 2.0” initial wave of death and destruction – even better than efforts against Saddam Hussein’s forces in the First and Second Gulf Wars.
The B-21 Is Looking to Be Pricey
I would be open to ordering 100 F-47s to fly with the 100 B-21s. Price will be a factor, though. B-21s are estimated to run an eye-watering $700 million per airplane, and the Air Force could spend as much as $203 billion over the next 30 years to develop and make the bomber.
The F-47 Must Be Cheaper Than $300 Million Per Unit
The F-47, with all of the whiz-bang features on board, could cost $300 million each. That was an early estimate bandied about last year and had many people blanching at the cost. Former Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall decided that the $300 million price tag was too much. One idea to bring down the price is to combine aspects of the Navy’s 6th-generation fighter called the F/A-XX. Each airplane could have similar designs and be tested and evaluated together. This type of merger would reduce the cost of both fighters.
The F-47 also has two proposed engines that have passed the initial review stages. Both General Electric and Pratt & Whitney have received $3.5 billion each to develop the engines. This is starting to look like some serious dollars will be spent on the NGAD.
NGAD Should Be Safe from Budget Cuts
These estimates come as Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is calling for $50 billion in budget cuts or about 8 percent reduced spending for FY25 and the next five years. The F-47 NGAD was not on his original list of priorities that would be immune from the cuts. We can be sure now since the F-47 was announced with such fanfare in the Oval Office with President Donald Trump, that it is assuredly gone to the top of the list.
Keeping Up with China and Russia
The next question is the advancement in Russia and China’s fighter plane development. China has the J-35A and the J-20 fighters with stealth attributes (probably not as stealthy as the F-35 and F-47). Russia has the Su-57 and Su-75 radar evading warbirds. Both are testing 6th generation fighters as well and China has already flown their version of the NGAD called the J-36. So, you could say that China has jumped ahead in next-generation flight. Or has it?
The F-47 program has been led by the secretive and highly-effective Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). DARPA flew prototypes built by Boeing and Lockheed Martin as far back as 2019. So perhaps the Americans are not as behind China in 6th generation flight as once thought.
Meanwhile, the B-21 program is going like gangbusters. The Northrop Grumman Raider is flying, and the project is on time and under budget. We will have to wait and see how the Boeing F-47 advances. Boeing has endured difficulty with its civilian aviation component and its space program. That’s why it was a surprise that the defense contractor won the F-47 competition.
Since Trump and Hegseth are so enamored with the F-47, Congressional lawmakers, particularly Democrats, will be watching the F-47 program closely, looking for schedule slips and cost over-runs.
It may take until the mid-2030s to procure the F-47, and China could surround and blockade Taiwan by then or even order a mass amphibious assault on the island by that time. That means the clock is ticking for the F-47 in a race against China for next-generation fighter primacy. Don’t forget Russia’s MiG-41 PAK DP fighter, which has some impressive features that can challenge current 5th-generation stealth fighters such as the F-35 and F-22.
Boeing should build the same number of fighters as the B-21 program produces. One hundred is a nice round number to shoot for and would be enough for a great power war. Even if only 50 NGADs were produced, that would still make a difference in a shooting conflict.
The question will be price. Boeing must bring the cost down to a manageable level – it should shoot for $100 million per F-47 since the B-21 is so expensive. Both airplanes are needed for the Air Force to dominate the skies in the 2030s, and the pressure is on for Boeing to come in on time and on budget.
The B-21 requires a wing man and the F-47 will be ready to fit the bill if all things work in Boeing’s favor.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
