Summary and Key Points: Air Force General Anthony Cotton suggested at a defense conference that the U.S. Navy may need more than the currently planned 12 Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines due to increasing geopolitical threats, particularly from China.
-Although construction delays and budget overruns have troubled the Columbia-class, their critical role in nuclear deterrence makes cuts unlikely. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth prioritizes nuclear force modernization but seeks $50 billion in annual Pentagon cuts elsewhere.
-Building additional submarines faces budget challenges, as the military juggles various expensive modernization projects. Ultimately, increasing Columbia-class submarine numbers remains uncertain despite rising tensions with near-peer adversaries.
The Great Columbia-Class Submarine Expansion?
A retiring Air Force general speaking candidly at a defense conference this week said something interesting that could portend a future that would see more Columbia-class ballistic missile (SSBN) submarines built.
Granted, this comes from the Air Force and not the Navy, but it offers a glimpse into what the military brass is thinking about future force requirements for the nuclear triad.
Air Force General Let’s the Cat Out of the Bag
Air Force General Anthony J. Cotton, chief of US Strategic Command, said at the McAleese and Associates annual Defense Programs Conference that China is a number one adversary and that the geopolitical threat environment has changed.
He mainly discussed the number of new B-21 Raider bombers (Cotton wants 145 instead of 100), but the general dropped a small clue that piqued the crowd’s curiosity since it was about the Navy.
Build the Columbia-class in Greater Numbers?
Cotton said, “The Navy’s new Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine also likely needs to be built in greater numbers than were originally envisioned, for all the same reasons.” The threat is “significantly greater” than it was in an earlier era, and “this is not ‘Cold War 2.0,'” he explained.
This is a curious comment from someone who wears an Air Force uniform. Cotton is retiring soon, so he may not have been watching his words carefully, but this shows what some in the military think about nuclear deterrence and the future of the Navy’s boomer fleet.
Not a Good Start to the Columbia-class Program
The Navy plans to spend $130 billion to purchase 12 Columbia-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines. However, the first submarine is estimated to arrive over a year behind schedule and cost hundreds of millions of dollars more than planned.
Let’s Decipher What Hegseth Is Saying
While the Navy has said the Columbia-class submarine has been its highest priority for years, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth did not explicitly announce that the Columbia-class submarine is on his wish list.
Hegseth did mention the Virginia-class cruise missile fast attack submarine as a favorite. However, one should read into the tea leaves a little deeper into Hegseth’s description of the most critical future weapons for the US military.
Hegseth said that nuclear weapons force modernization plus nuclear command, control, and communications will be a priority and immune from budget cuts.
Does this mean that Hegseth would consider building more Columbia-class boats since they carry nuclear weapons? That’s the assumption General Cotton is making.
Not a Time for Unlimited Budgets
Hegseth wants to cut some costs, though. He calls for a $50 billion reduction in spending, or about 8 percent of this year’s budget, followed by the same cuts in the next five years.
The question is—will the Columbia-class be on the chopping block, too? No chance of that happening. The boomer force is too important, but I don’t see more Columbia-class subs being built past the twelve. These many subs are enough to blast the living heck out of our adversaries.
They will cost significant money, and the Navy needs the Virginia-class, too. Then, the Air Force wants the new F-46 Next-generation Air Dominance fighter to be awarded to Boeing today, plus General Cotton wants 145 B-21 Stealth Bombers that cost $692 million apiece.
President Trump and Hegseth desire more lethality in the Department of Defense and a new era of peace through strength. The cost-cutting will probably come from laying off tens of thousands of civilian DOD workers – mainly those without probation.
It appears we are in for a new defense build-up with military hardware that can keep up with China and Russia. I’m not sure that means more Columbia-class subs than planned, but the Navy and Air Force should be happy they are getting what they want in submarines and airplanes.
We will just have to see if Congress and military bean counters agree on how this will be paid for.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
