The U.S. Air Force’s Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter jet is being scrutinized as its opponents point to the high cost, lack of precise design specifications, and its misalignment with Department of Defense priorities.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is currently more concerned with changing the “woke” military and tending to the Southern Border with Mexico rather than exploring the rejuvenation of a fighter program in operational pause mode.
The NGAD Is Viable, Say Its Supporters
Proponents of the NGAD believe the nascent airplane is the best option for future warfare with Russia and China – countries that have their own 6th generation fighter programs.
These NGAD supporters have pointed to a new internal Air Force study that shows the American aircraft should be fully pursued.
“Bluntly, what this study told us, we tried a whole bunch of different options and there was no more viable option than NGAD to achieve air superiority in this highly contested environment,” Maj. Gen. Joseph Kunkel, director of Air Force Design, Integration, and Wargaming, said March 4 at the AFA Warfare Symposium in Colorado.
$300,000,000 Fighter: Could the High Cost Be the NGAD’s Undoing?
However, the NGAD’s future is hazy due to its high price tag that could reach $300 million a unit – much more expensive than the F-35 by a massive amount.
Two proposed jet engine designs have emerged, but the NGAD has not reached any concrete design parameters.
Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency is reviewing cost-cutting measures at the Pentagon, and it is unknown whether the budget-slashing project will target the NGAD for elimination. Musk has criticized the F-35 in particular and manned flight generally as being out of step with future needs.
Need a Drone Mothership? No Problem
However, to assuage Musk and other critics, there could be an ultra-stealth unmanned version of the NGAD to align with Hegseth’s calls to focus on drones.
Indeed, the Air Force has announced that its new “Loyal Wingman” drone called the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) prototypes have been unveiled recently.
The NGAD could be a mothership for the CCA if the program is extended. NGAD could use the CCA for better targeting, electronic warfare, and intelligence data collection.
Doing Nothing Is No Option
Air Force leaders who spoke at the Colorado conference have not considered other options. One general said the Air Force is not “sticking its head in the sand” and refusing to look at different solutions that can maintain air superiority in contested environments when flying against Chinese and Russian fighters.
But the Air Force cannot sit back and “do nothing” when it comes to future American fighter jets, the brass explained.
However, Hegseth has called for an 8 percent reduction in spending for each of the next five years. That equates to a trimming of about $50 billion. It is unclear how that will affect defense acquisition efforts, but the SECDEF has outlined his 17 priorities, and NGAD did not specifically make the list.
Missile Defense and Attack Submarines Are Needed More
Hegseth has called for the budget to be focused on the “Iron Dome” or “Golden Dome” that President Donald Trump has called for to protect the United States from enemy missiles with a defense screen that could be based in near space. Hegseth has also mentioned that fast-attack submarines should be fully funded.
A crew chief assigned to the 158th Fighter Wing, taxis an F-35A Lightning II fifth generation aircraft assigned to the wing at the Vermont Air National Guard Base, South Burlington, Vermont, May 2, 2022. The aircraft departed to Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany, to continue NATO’s Enhanced Air Policing mission along the Eastern Flank. (U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Richard Mekkri)
The Air Force still needs to peer into the future and figure out what it wants to accomplish with a 6th generation fighter.
“Is air superiority dead? What does air superiority look like in the future? Does the joint force need air superiority? And what we found is, not only in the past, not only the present, but in the future, air superiority matters,” Kunkel said.
For the NGAD to progress from its current “pause” status, more research and development dollars must be in the budget. Former Secretary of the Air Force under the Joe Biden administration, Frank Kendall, claimed that the NGAD program would need $20 billion in development to finish the initial plans for design and propulsion.
This could shock Congressional lawmakers, although Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker called for much more defense spending before Hegseth became secretary.
The Air Force is also overseeing the production of the B-21 Raider stealth bomber and will invest significant funds to build at least 100 of the airplanes that would be ready in the early 2030s.
Supporters of extreme air superiority would like nothing better than to have both the NGAD and the B-21 ready in the next decade, but $50 billion in cuts each year places the NGAD program in jeopardy.
We will continue our coverage of NGAD to see if the program can survive in the coming months or if it becomes a budget casualty to the cost cutters.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
