Summary and Key Points: As May 9, 2025—the historic Russian Victory Day—approaches, the Ukraine-Russia conflict faces a critical juncture.
-Ukraine’s recent Kursk offensive failed to shift Russian strategy, resulting in severe setbacks for Ukrainian forces.
-With American aid uncertain under Trump, Ukraine now faces harsh demands: surrendering significant eastern territories, abandoning NATO aspirations, and compensating debts with rare resources.
Ukraine Has a Tough Choice to Make in Russia War
Since the end of WWII in 1945, May 9th (victory day of the Red Army over the Nazis) has become one of the most important dates on the Russian calendar. Until 1990, it was as important as Nov. 7th (the Communist Revolution Day). Since 1991, the only other holiday equally important for the Russians is Novy God (their New Year’s celebration).
In the remaining weeks until May 9th, 2025, we will likely witness dramatic changes in the war raging in Ukraine since February 2022.
These changes can evolve in one of the following two directions. Either Ukraine will accept the harsh terms that President Trump is trying to impose, or it may face a major defeat on the battlefield.
Territorial Skirmishes
Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk was a “wild card” move that aimed at knocking the Russians out of balance, forcing them to withdraw troops from Ukrainian territory and, as some Ukrainians were hoping, leading them to agree to a ceasefire deal in which areas the Russians captured in Ukraine would be given back to Ukraine in return to the land they lost in Kursk.
This gamble has failed. Russia didn’t pull out troops from Ukraine. It mobilized additional forces, including mercenaries from North Korea and elsewhere, and gradually pushed back.
By now, the Russians have regained control over almost all the territory they lost in Kursk and, according to unconfirmed reports, have even put a sizable Ukrainian force under siege.
Ukraine Faces Terms
President Trump has offered Ukraine a deal that is hard to swallow. They will have to relinquish ~20% of their eastern territories to Russia, use some of their rare materials to pay their debts to America, and forget about being admitted to NATO.
In return, they will be relieved from the war and benefit from a significant economic aid package backed by the United States.
Russia Pushes On
However, the situation that awaits Ukraine if it declines Trump’s offer is much worse. In this scenario, Putin will do his utmost to achieve a decisive victory over Ukraine and announce it during the upcoming May 9th holiday.
Left without additional supplies of armaments from the US, Ukrainians will not be able to hold on for too long. Russian forces will move in one or both of the following directions.
Once they finish driving the Ukrainians out of Kursk (expected within the next two weeks), the Russians will locate forces about 20 km from the outskirts of Kharkiv. Taking the second-largest city in Ukraine, a home for 1.5 million Ukrainians before the war, will be a significant blow to Ukraine and a good reason for Putin to celebrate May 9th.
Russia’s Second Option
Alternatively, Russian Troops may advance towards Odessa. This action can be done by land—from Kherson, where their front line is now, through Mykolaiv and then along the coast of the Black Sea to Odesa, a 200 km drive—or it can be done by landing troops, establishing a bridgehead on the coast near Pivdenne (a mere 40 km from Odesa), and then moving west.
Such a move will deprive Ukraine of its access to the Black Sea and create direct land contact between Russia and Moldova, turning the latter into another “Belarus” south of Ukraine.
If the withdrawal of American support causes the Ukrainian Army to start crumbling, the Russians may even simultaneously attempt a “pincer” move on both fronts. Either way, the result for Ukraine is quite grim. Under these circumstances, one should expect President Zelensky and his government to choose the deal that Trump offers.
Capt. Michael Terry, 36th Fighter Squadron F-16 pilot, prepares to launch at Osan Air Base, Republic of Korea, July 9, 2020. The 36th Aircraft Maintenance Unit and the flight line operators wokred to make this aircraft mission-capable after being grounded for 186 days. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Noah Sudolcan)
However, history has shown us that leaders do not always choose the right direction, even when it is obvious. Ego considerations, fear of revenge by their own people in case they are perceived as losers, etc., may intervene.
Let’s hope that a sensible choice will be made this time.
About the Author:
Lt. Colonel (res.) Boaz Golany is an Emeritus Professor at the Technion, Israel Institute of Technology where he has served as a Dean, VP for External Relations & Resource Development and Executive VP & Director General. His research interests cover diverse areas of applied operations research. He also serves as a member of the Board and as a strategic consultant to some companies and organizations.
