Summary and Key Points: The United States Navy relies heavily on the stealth of its submarines, which have long dominated undersea warfare with superior noise-cancellation technology.
-However, emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, advanced lidar sensors, magnetic anomaly detectors, and underwater drone swarms from adversaries like China and Russia could soon erode this advantage.
-Such developments might make previously undetectable U.S. submarines vulnerable, compromising their critical role in nuclear deterrence and conventional strikes.
-While this new detection technology is not yet fully matured, American military planners must closely monitor its evolution and prepare countermeasures to preserve their strategic advantage in future warfare.
U.S. Navy’s Submarine Dominance Faces New Tech Threat
A critical aspect of American undersea warfare is the assumption that U.S. Navy subs can always run silent, run deep, and be 100 percent undetectable.
This means that the Navy can depend on submarines to be as stealthy as possible and sneak around the world with the ability to strike anyplace and anytime.
This is quite important for nuclear deterrence as ballistic missile “boomer” subs can bring nuclear weapons to the enemy at a moment’s notice and stay hidden to answer if an adversary such as Russia or China does the unthinkable and conducts the first strike in a nuclear war.
How the Age of Navy Stealth Submarines Could End
But what if Russia and China use some form of artificial intelligence or quantum computing to render the U.S. advantage in undersea warfare useless?
Stealthiness would thus not always be assured, and the Americans could find that their boats would be discoverable.
This would affect the condition of mutual assured destruction. The United States would lose its ability to conduct warfare when one of its critical legs of the nuclear triad becomes incapacitated.
Can U.S. Subs Still Be as Quiet as a Dolphin?
U.S. submarine designers and engineers have consistently improved the acoustic signature of American submarines. Each generation gets more and more stealthy. The subs can evade sonar to the best of their ability and even have the ability to conduct operations as “quiet as a baby dolphin.”
Since American subs with their nuclear power could stay under the sea and cruise unabated, the Navy had the optimal advantage over adversaries for the time being. Nuclear strategists were secure in the knowledge that they had a huge benefit when bringing nuclear weapons to the fight.
Sea Floor Sensors Could Be Decisive
New American boomer subs like the Columbia-class SSBN are designed to last for a remarkable 60 years, but in that time the Russians and Chinese could develop ways to sniff them out and even attack and sink an American boat. There are already “networks of acoustic hydrophone arrays mounted to the seafloor” that place U.S. submarines in jeopardy.
These subs, along with the fast attack cruise missile boats such as the Virginia-class, are also expensive, running $2.8 billion a piece. If the Chinese and Russians could discover those types of boats, the Americans would lose their ability to launch Tomahawk cruise missiles. The Virginia-class could also be caught and destroyed.
Rose Gottemoeller, former deputy secretary general of NATO, said that “the stealth of submarines will be difficult to sustain, as sensing of all kinds, in multiple spectra, in and out of the water becomes more ubiquitous and the ongoing contest between stealth and detection is becoming increasingly volatile as these new technologies threaten to overturn the balance,” according to IEEE Spectrum.
Moreover, U.S. submarines emit radiation and chemicals that can be discovered, making their stealthiness from radar and sonar impotent. Artificial intelligence and quantum computing could notice these anomalies and find American subs much more easily than before.
Lidar Sensor and Magnetic Anomaly Detectors Would Be Dangerous for Submarines
The Center for Strategic and International Studies has revealed that Lidar sensors and magnetic anomaly detectors are other ways that U.S. submarines could be found. However, magnetic anomalies have difficulties sensing underwater. The technology would have to progress further in the coming decades, but that is certainly possible.
Moreover, Lidar is expensive, and the price would have to come down to make it possible to deploy, but agai,n this disadvantage could be mitigated in the future. Rest assured that Russian and Chinese engineers are working to make these technologies cheaper and more efficient, and they will only get better with time.
Watch Out for Swarming Underwater Drones
Another way to counter submarines is to use underwater drone swarms to sense and attack enemy boats. Think of them as modern depth charges. A submarine would have little chance of avoiding numerous undersea loitering munitions. Or they could be used to replicate sonar buoys. China is even developing something called the Robo-Shark undersea drone to do just that.
However, China would need an inordinate number of these unmanned underwater craft to make a difference. There are many places where a submarine can hide in East Asia. But it is noteworthy that U.S. adversaries are looking at different and better ways to detect subs.
The Virginia-class attack submarine Pre-Commissioning Unit Mississippi (SSN 782) conducts alpha trials in the Atlantic Ocean. (U.S. Navy photo courtesy of General Dynamics Electric Boat)
The new technology to detect American submarines is at least a decade or two away. The U.S. undersea warfare capabilities are still the best in the world, but this advantage could change. The repercussions would be huge. The Americans would lose the stealthiness they have built up over the years. They would be forced to go back to the drawing board and find countermeasures to the new types of sensors and drones that could make a difference in subsea warfare.
U.S. intelligence knows that our enemies are advancing further with detection and elimination means. Analysts will have to keep track of what the Chinese and Russians are doing in this realm and look for counter-technologies to bubble up from defense contractors.
It’s a new age of undersea warfare, and the United States may not always have such a massive advantage in noise cancellation and stealth. Look for new ways to detect subs in the coming years. There could be a time when American boats could be detected easier, and this would change the equation in nuclear warfare and lessen the anywhere and anytime U.S. dominance in conventional strike.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
