The B-21 Raider is expected to be one of the stealthiest airplanes ever built. It is designed to be highly radar-absorbent, with an advanced stealth coating to allow it to sneak through contested air space. But could China or Russia shoot it down?
This would depend on the power of air defenses and surface-to-air missiles such as those arming the S-400 or S-500 systems.
B-21 Raider Looks Good So Far…
The most important question is whether the B-21 can survive in a multi-threat environment. That will be critical on Day One of a battle, when the B-21 will conduct deep strikes for shock and awe. The Raider will join Tomahawk cruise missiles fired from U.S. Navy fast-attack submarines.
It will also be paired with the whiz-bang F-47 fighter, itself planned to be a highly stealthy future warbird. These two platforms in a bomber-and-fighter-escort configuration will be extremely lethal as part of an Air Force multi-plane strike group.
Yes, the Bomber Is Not Perfect
Radar will bounce off the B-21 and F-47 for the most part, so the Chinese and Russians are looking for ways to detect the B-21 better. One way to accomplish this task is to use anti-aircraft hypersonic missiles, and even lasers, from their own aircraft. Such systems will likely be available when the B-21 is ready for deployment in numbers.
Northrop Grumman for the Challenger
Northrop Grumman is confident that the B-21 will be much more radar-evasive than the current platforms in the U.S. bomber fleet. The company believes “only ten percent of the U.S. bomber force is capable of penetrating advanced air defenses, and that the B-21 will make up for that,” according to Warrior Maven.
What Could Russia or China do?
However, China has the new H-20 stealth bomber, with a range of 5,200 miles and a payload of 45 tons. The H-20 could attack U.S. targets in the First and Second Island Chains while the B-21 is making its bombing runs. Russia is developing its own next-generation stealth bomber, the PAK DA, and this warbird could make the United States and its NATO allies pay if the Americans try to bomb Russia with the B-21. China and Russia each have two stealth-fighter platforms.
If the B-21 could be sniffed out early by radar, both countries could send these stealthy warbirds to challenge the Raider.
Don’t forget the surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) deployed by Russia’s S-400 and S-500 systems. All told, Russia and China do seem to have some answers to the B-21’s stealth prowess.
Day One and Day Two attacks and counter-attacks will be highly dangerous for the B-21. It will have to be nimble and agile enough to outmaneuver radar and SAMs, and it will rely on support from stealth-fighter escorts including F-47s, F-35s, and F-22s. The United States will have to suppress Russian or Chinese air defenses on the first day of combat in any future war. Tomahawks will be very important in this role. Their accuracy is key to clearing out radar, command and control sites, and SAMs.
American stealth fighters will also have to accurately fire their own air-to-surface missiles.
How to Find a B-21 Raider in the Sky?
With the proper support, the B-21 will be highly survivable on Day One as it sneaks through the contested environment. I am worried, however, about hypersonic missiles and lasers. Such systems could be the B-21’s undoing. A further obstacle would be if China and Russia produce a constellation of early-warning satellites that could spot the B-21.
The Raider will likely not be ready until sometime between 2030 and 2035, although the Air Force claims it will be ready earlier, and the F-47 may take just as long to develop. Meanwhile, the Chinese claim to be already flying at least one sixth-generation fighter that could challenge the B-21 someday.
The Raider is a great airplane, and it is being delivered on time and under budget for the most part, but the Russians and Chinese have their own paths to continue competing for air dominance. Much depends on what happens in the next five to 10 years in the development of stealth flight and air defenses.
U.S. air dominance is not assured, and it will take a multi-pronged attack during the early days of the fight to make sure the B-21 is survivable.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
Jim
April 20, 2025 at 1:41 pm
This is a good story.
A survey of weapons on both sides.
The B-21 is designed as subsonic, has more maneuverability than the B-2, but still at its core is a heavy bomber.
The bomber’s stealth is where the rubber meets the road.
Escort fighters have been important to survivability since WWII. But ground to air missiles are hard to intercept by those escort fighters.
Radar absorption is what the B-21 relies on.
Optical detection technology may come back into use.
All this is a relatively distant battlefield…
Technologies likely will improve in ways that are hard to predict now in their effect on a future battlefield.
Today, we need to compare & contrast our weapons systems against the adversaries’ weapons systems (the survey in this article describes weapons Russia and China have today, not tomorrow). The strength and weaknesses need to be carefully considered.
It should be sobering.
Whether it be in the Middle East or the South China Sea.
Assumptions about military superiority have to be tempered by an objective weighing of the evidence based on military intelligence about the capabilities of our adversaries.
Wrong assumptions in warfare can and often are fatal.