Key Points – China is significantly accelerating the expansion and modernization of its nuclear arsenal, moving well beyond its previous “minimalist” deterrence posture.
-Independent assessments (Arms Control Association, January 2024) indicate China now possesses around 500 nuclear warheads, with projections suggesting this could increase to 1,000 by 2030.
-This rapid growth includes the construction of new ICBM silo fields, the development of road-mobile ICBMs, and an increasing inventory of dual-capable missiles like the DF-26.
-This buildup, long anticipated by the Pentagon, is driving intensified US efforts to bolster strategic deterrence, including more frequent bomber patrols and seeking greater allied support.
China’s Rising Nuclear Weapons Arsenal?
(Washington DC) Beneath the visible threshold of China’s well known military expansion in the realm of carriers, destroyers, stealth aircraft, drones armored vehicles, the People’s Liberation Army is also massively accelerating production and modernization of its nuclear arsenal.
An Arms Control Association essay says DoD and independent researchers states China now has a total of at least 500 nuclear weapons. The essay says researchers anticipate that, based on its current pace of production, China is expected to have up to 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030.
The concern has been on the Pentagon’s radar for quite some time. As far back as 2021, former Commander, Air Force Global Strike Command, Gen. Timothy Ray, said at that time China had planned to double its nuclear arsenal by the end of the decade. Ray explained that China was “departing from its minimalist theory” at the 2021 Air Force Association Symposium.
2020 Pentagon Prediction
The Pentagon’s 2020 China Military Report may have informed Ray’s 2021 comments, as Ray seemed to accurately anticipate the years which followed. The Pentagon’s 2020 report states that the amount of warheads arming Beijing’s intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of threatening America will likely grow to 200 in the next five years, by 2025. This prediction seems to be becoming true. As an element of this expansion, China is also increasing its inventory of long-range land-fired DF-26 anti-ship missiles able to fire both conventional and nuclear missiles.
The concerns cited by Ray and the Pentagon’s 2020 report rapidly began to become a reality in subsequent years. By 2021, commercially available satellite photos revealed that indeed China had begun to build silo fields to house ICBMs across the mainland, a development which confirmed the PRCs ambition. For many years, Congressional and Pentagon assessments have indicated that the PRC operates mobile nuclear weapons with multiple re-entry vehicles and can position and reposition ICBMs across the country. The construction of large silo fields would indicate that China seeks to develop the capacity to launch a “bolt-out-of-the-blue” massive salvo attack should it wish to.
China Has 500 Nuclear Warheads
A January 2025 assessment from the Arms Control Association confirms that Ray’s prediction indeed seems to have come true, as China has more than doubled it number of nuclear warheads in recent years
“China is estimated by independent experts to possess, as of January 2024, around 500 nuclear warheads, an arsenal that has increased significantly in recent years. It has sought to modernize and expand its nuclear delivery systems in pursuit of a robust nuclear triad. China continues to develop road-mobile ICBMs, advance the construction of three new ICBM silo fields, and improve the capabilities of its sea and air-based deterrent,” the Arms Control Association says.
The rapid growth of China’s nuclear arsenal has driven the Air Force to work intensely to increase allied support for its nuclear deterrence posture, given that not many US allies operate ICBMs. This is also a key reason why the US has in recent years been increasing the range and frequency of its bomber task force support patrols and basing more assets in Guam.
About the Author:
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
