As Pakistan Confronts Military Failure, Will it Follow the Path of Russia, Congo, or Armenia?: With world leaders in the audience, Pope Leo XIV gave his inaugural mass. Among his themes was a condemnation of war. “In the joy of faith and communion, we cannot forget our brothers and sisters who are suffering because of war.” He mentioned Gaza, Myanmar, and Ukraine, but could have mentioned many more. Since the beginning of the decade, wars have erupted across the globe.
In 2020, Azerbaijan attacked the Armenian-run enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, conquering half before accepting a ceasefire which lasted less than three years before overrunning the rest of the territory, expelling the Armenian population.
What History Teaches
Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, a war that continues in the trenches of the Donbas as drones and missiles strike from Kyiv to Moscow. After importing hundreds of millions if not billions of dollars of drones and military equipment from China, Democratic Republic of Congo President Félix Tshisekedi sparked a war in eastern Congo to distract Congolese from his failings elsewhere. It backfired as rebels gained ground both militarily and won hearts and minds of residents with sober and competent governance. The brief India-Pakistan war that erupted earlier this month in the wake of the April 22, 2025 Pakistan-backed terror attack on Indian tourists at Pahalgam was just the latest conflict in a world seemingly increasingly prone to war.
Every war begins with the best laid plans. Often, reality intrudes. The soldiers initially mobilized for World War I in July and August 1914 believed they would be home for Christmas; many spent years in the trenches if they came home at all. Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan both believed they could deliver knockout blows to their enemies, only to see opponents regroup, rally and respond.
Russia-Ukraine War
The same holds true with the most recent conflicts. Russian President Vladimir Putin believed he could knock out Kyiv in two days and conquer Ukraine in two weeks; just over three years later, Russia has made only marginal gains but has lost more men—perhaps more than a quarter million—than in any conflict since World War II.
The reason for the failure will remain the subject of debate: Was it poor training, lack of moral, or had corruption led to a discrepancy between what units had versus what the Kremlin thought they possessed? The only certainty is that the Russian army will not correct its deficits soon since it is unwilling to raise tough questions lest the general doing so find himself falling headfirst out a window or down the stairs.
Congo Case Study
The Forces armées de la république démocratique du Congo (FARDC) face a similar dynamic. Tshisekedi’s incitement and military strategy were disasters; by any objective measure, he lost a chunk of his territory and even more credibility.
For this reason, neither he nor the FARDC will acknowledge let alone discuss why the M23 insurgent group, a relatively small group of insurgents, so thoroughly routed the FARDC. Tshisekedi’s accusations that Rwanda secretly controlled, supplied, and even fought the FARDC have more to do with salvaging his own reputation than reality. By failing to look inward, Tshisekedi however is condemning the FARDC to future failure.
Armena Case Study
Armenia is an exception. Azerbaijan’s 2020 campaign against Nagorno-Karabakh shocked Armenians as Azerbaijani forces seized the high ground and were poised to capture the Nagorno-Karabakh capital when Putin imposed a ceasefire.
Armenians had wrested their historic homeland at great cost upon the Soviet Union’s fall and had successfully defended it for decades against multiple attacks. To lose the heart of Nagorno-Karabakh in 45 days was almost inconceivable. Armenians questioned why Azerbaijan had established a qualitative military edge and how the Armenian-backed regional military had failed to account for drones.
Ultimately, Armeni’s National Security Service arrested longtime Defense Minister Davit Tonoyan on charges of embezzlement. In the years since, Armenian officers have studied their failures and worked to plug shortcomings. To do this, however, they first had to acknowledge them.
Which Path Will Pakistan Take?
Pakistan has a history of starting wars with India only to lose badly. Yet, they repeat the pattern largely because they refuse to acknowledge their failures or loss. Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir will not admit the obvious:
India was able to hit Pakistan with precision and impunity, neutralizing one-fifth of the Pakistan air force in a single day and knocking multiple Pakistani airfields offline. Pakistan was saved by diplomats panicked at the possibility of further escalation between the nuclear powers, not by its armed forces.
So far, however, Pakistan appears more inclined to follow the Russian and Congolese path of denial rather than the Armenia path of military reform. This is tragic for it may preserve Munir’s bank accounts and personal privileges, but it condemns Pakistanis to decades more failure and only makes more war inevitable as Pakistan triggers conflicts its leaders do not realize they can never win.
About the Author: Dr. Michael Rubin
Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum. The views expressed are his own.
