Forget JAS 39 Gripen or Fighter Replacements: Canada Created Its Own F-35 Crisis

Key Points – Canada’s troubled relationship with the F-35 fighter jet dates back to 2010, when the government planned to buy 65 stealth aircraft.

-Skyrocketing costs, from an initial $75 million per plane to $133 million, and a projected lifetime expense of $30 billion, led lawmakers to cancel the deal in 2012.

Today, history might repeat itself as Prime Minister Mark Carney delays Canada’s latest commitment of 88 F-35s amid tense relations with President Trump and economic uncertainty from tariffs.

-If the deal collapses again, Canada faces ongoing uncertainty about its aging CF-18 fleet, risking military readiness and complicating interoperability with NATO allies.

Canada’s F-35 Nightmare: Why the Fighter Jet Deal Might Collapse Again

Lost in all the speculation about Canada purchasing (or not purchasing) 88 F-35 fighter jets from the United States—a deal Prime Minister Mark Carney is not excited about. There is an additional back story. Canada once ordered 65 of the stealth fighters in 2010.

The F-35 procurement was an agreement that the Canadian Air Force and Lockheed Martin were excited about. 

The Canadian military wanted an airplane that could be interoperable with NATO allies that also flew it. The Great White North could replace the aging CF-18 Hornet.

F-35 pilots could have more survivability with full radar-evading attributes, and the Canadian Air Force could be a leader in military aviation into the 2040s.

Canada Has F-35 Sticker Shock

But there was a problem. The expense was getting out of control. The F-35 deal was going to set Canada back $8.5 billion, and the unit cost went from $75 million to $133 million. The escalating cost was a difficult pill for lawmakers in parliament to swallow.

The CF-18 wasn’t that bad, so why make the expensive buy now when Canada struggled to supply soldiers and military hardware to the NATO military mission in Afghanistan? The fight in 2010 was for counter-insurgency and counter-terror.

This was four years before the Russians had annexed Crimea, and the potential of a great power war was negligible 15 years ago.

The F-35 Could Have Served Canada Well in Combat

Canada still wanted to fight “shoulder to shoulder” with NATO allies. The F-35 has ground strike capabilities for close air support, so there was a chance that the Canadian air force could save its soldiers in combat and help allies fight the Taliban with the F-35.

At the time, the Netherlands, Italy, Turkey, Denmark, Norway, and Australia were partners in the Lightning II program or were already flying the stealth warbird. By all accounts, each country was happy. However, there was a palpable sense of doom going around Ottawa.

Was this the right decision? And should it be done now for such a high price? Plus, the Joint Strike Fighters were not delivered until 2016. The global threat environment could change by then, and new political leadership could sour on the deal.

That money for the F-35s could be spent elsewhere.

Time for a New Set of Eyes to Analyze Costs

To ensure the government acted as good stewards of taxpayer funds, the Canadian auditor-general did some investigating. The office hired the accounting firm KPMG to conduct an audit. The news wasn’t good. To keep the F-35 in the air for its projected life cycle, Canada would have to shell out more than $30 billion.

Whoa, lawmakers exclaimed, this is not what we signed up for. The Canadians did not want to be on the hook for such an exorbitant amount. They canceled the contract with Lockheed Martin in 2012.

If Not the F-35, then What?

The Canadians decided to go back to the drawing board. The air force started looking at cheaper alternatives, such as the F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet. This made sense since the CF-18 the Air Force depended on was a F/A-18 variant. The JAS 39 Gripen, Dassault Rafale, and Eurofighter Typhoon were also considered. Lawmakers wanted a “full evaluation of choices.”

Worldwide Ripple Effects

This was not a good time for Lockheed Martin and the Joint Strike Fighter, as the Canadian decision had ripple effects. Once Ottawa canceled, other countries got cold feet. Italy originally wanted to buy 131 F-35s. They reduced that down to 41 stealth jets. Japan stopped their order, blaming cost per unit and life cycle expenses.

The Netherlands was going to withdraw from their deal, too. Australia announced a delay upon further review.

With these cuts, Lockheed Martin was sure to raise the price of the F-35 in the future to make up for lost profits. It would have cost even more if the Joint Strike Fighter won the competition against Sweden, France, and the Eurofighter consortium.

Flash forward to 2025, and the Canadian deal to buy F-35s is in danger again. This time, it is for poor relations with the Americans because of President Donald Trump’s threatening rhetoric and his exorbitant tariffs on Canadian goods. Prime Minister Carney has delayed the deal for the 88 F-35s to review it more.

The money allocated for the first 16 F-35s has already been earmarked, but Canada may claw back those funds and cancel the entire lot. If that happens, the country faces another uncertainty about its air force.

Could the military continue its life cycle extension program for the CF-18? If so, the Hornet fleet would have upgrades to its avionics, radars, and munitions, and Canada would not even have to buy a new fighter. 

The F-35 to Canada deal seems jinxed. It was canceled once, and it could be nixed again. The Air Force could go for a mixture of F-35s, CF-18s, and the Gripen or Eurofighter.

However, this would be complicated as the Canadians would lose interoperability and need to train pilots and ground crews on different airplanes.

Lockheed Martin hopes that Trump could speak well with Canada about the F-35. However, during a White House meeting this week with Carney, Trump did not bring up the Lightning II in conversation. The “fighter plane diplomacy” that has created 19 F-35 partners is not working with Ottawa.

Lockheed is now holding its breath and hoping the Canadians honor the commitment to 88 fighters. Jobs in Canada and the United States are on the line, and the trade war could spark a recession in both countries.

There is a lot riding on the F-35, and Canada’s choice will have repercussions depending on the nation’s decision.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.