Meet Canada’s Possible F-35 Fighter Replacement: The JAS 39 Gripen

Key Points: Canada’s commitment to purchasing 88 F-35 fighters is under review by Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government, spurred by political tensions with the US Trump administration and a desire to reduce dependency.

-Defense Minister Bill Blair is exploring alternatives, including the Swedish Saab JAS 39 Gripen E, which was runner-up in the original competition.

-The Gripen E offers affordability, multi-role capability, and potential Canadian industrial participation.

-While operating a mixed fleet of F-35s (Canada is committed to the first 16) and Gripens presents logistical complexities, the current political climate makes adjustments to the F-35 deal conceivable.

JAS 39 Gripen Coming to Canada? 

While some temporary relief from President Donald Trump’s bruising trade war has been secured, the brief respite has provided Ottawa with breathing room and spurred discussions on how deeply America’s northern neighbor should be intertwined with the United States, given the present economic uncertainty, despite the two countries’ historically close relationship. 

One project that some Canadians think could be destined for the chopping block? 

The F-35 and its current status as the fighter jet of the future for the Royal Canadian Air Force.

Canada Might Dump the F-35? 

Years ago, Canada conducted the Future Fighter Capability Project, an open competition that Ottawa ran to test and evaluate a number of fighter jets and determine what platform would replace their American-designed CF-18 Hornets. 

Lockheed Martin and the F-35 emerged from that competition as the winner and secured a contract for 88 fighters to replace the Cold War-era Hornets.

The contract award encompasses more than just the jets themselves — it also includes weapons, F-35 support infrastructure, training software, and sustainment for the Canadian F-35 project. 

However, according to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, Ottawa is exploring alternatives to the F-35, which could be a significant stumbling block to the F-35’s future in Canada.

The Gripen E, designed and built by Saab, the Swedish aerospace firm, was a runner-up in the Future Fighter Capability Project, and Canada’s Defence Minister, Bill Blair, expressed interest in reassessing the jet’s feasibility for service with the Royal Canadian Air Force.

“It was the fighter jet identified by our air force as the platform that they required, but we are also examining other alternatives — whether we need all of those fighter jets to be F-35,” Blair said, hinting that Canada could be open to flying a mixed F-35-Gripen E fleet. 

“The prime minister has asked me to go and examine those things and have discussions with other sources, particularly where there may be opportunities to assemble those fighter jets in Canada,” Blair said.

The Saab JAS 39 Gripen

Saab, Sweden’s leading aerospace firm, has designed several generations of very successful aircraft for the Swedish Air Force for close to a century, with successive generations of modifications and redesigns of the earlier aircraft, equipped with superior power plants, modernized avionics and updated, enhanced with and airframe designs — all while retaining the basic delta wing and canard layout. And the newest Saab jet, the Gripen E, is no exception.

Saab explains that their Gripen E is able to “conduct air-to-air, air-to-surface and reconnaissance missions. Air supremacy is achieved with the carriage of up to seven Meteor Beyond Visual Range Air-to-Air Missiles and two Within Visual Range IRIS-T missiles. Weapons like these, combined with the ability to use offensive and defensive means simultaneously, enables Gripen E to detect, engage and suppress or destroy targets effectively.”

And while Sweden does not operate aircraft carriers of any kind, Saab does offer an export variant of the Gripen E, navalized to resist the harsh and corrosive maritime environments that naval aviation must deal with. 

This marinized variant of the Gripen E also features a slightly modified airframe, reinforced to withstand the additional stress placed on the jet when operating from flattop carriers.

Some International Success — but also Some Limitations

Saab’s Gripen E design success is reflected in the countries that have signed up to operate the fighter jet: in addition to Sweden, Brazil, the Czech Republic, Hungary, South Africa, Thailand, and the United Kingdom have all expressed interest.

It’s a testament to the jet’s capabilities and the balance the Gripen E manages to strike between performance, operational flexibility, ease of maintenance, and reliability at the relatively low operational price point to boasts. 

In particular, for countries that are unlikely to face an advanced, fifth-generation stealth fighter in combat, or conversely, without the need for financial resources to start or buy into a fifth-generation fighter program, the Gripen E shines.

One of the Swedish fighter’s potential shortcomings, however, is its relatively small size compared to some larger aircraft, such as the American F-15, a functionally heavy fighter with moderate bombing capability, or even when compared to the F-35, itself also a single-engine aircraft. Given the Gripen’s smaller size, questions about onboard fuel and range are not without merit.

It should also be noted that the Gripen, despite its advanced avionics and radar, is not a stealthy, fifth-generation aircraft, even if some measures have been taken to reduce the jet’s radar cross-section. For Canada, that may not be entirely relevant.

One of the primary adversaries Ottawa has previously faced is the Soviet Union. As Russia does not field a credible fifth-generation aircraft in significant numbers, it seems unlikely that Canadian Gripen Es will see aerial combat against Russian fifth-generation stealth jets.

When compared to other fourth- or 4.5-generation fighter jets, Saab’s Gripen E stands out as impressive. 

Highly maneuverable, with a respectable weapon load out, and relatively modest operating costs place the jet among the top of comparable aircraft — but it is no stealthy fighter.

F-35 RIP in Canada? 

Given the inherent advantages of stealth fighters, coupled with the not insignificant financial investment Canada has already put into the F-35 program, it seems unlikely that the Royal Canadian Air Force will easily be able to pivot away from the more capable American aircraft, irrespective of the current friction in the U.S.-Canadian relationship.

Instead, it is more likely that Canada would operate a mixed fleet of F-35s and Gripen Es — but such a fleet would be more of a political statement than an effective diversification away from the American stealth fighter.

However, a mixed air fleet would be a significant break for Canada, which has long resisted operating multiple kinds of fighters, considering the logistical training and maintenance complications that would entail.

However, if the ongoing trade war continues to affect Canada, the logistical complications might seem worthwhile.

About the Author: Caleb Larson 

Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines from Donbas and writing on the war’s civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.