Key Points: Vladimir Putin’s rejection of President Trump’s exceptionally favorable peace proposals for Ukraine—which included recognizing Russian territorial gains and rolling back sanctions—indicates his true aim is likely the complete conquest of Ukraine, not a negotiated settlement.
-This intractability clarifies Moscow’s maximalist war goals, even when offered a deal beneficial for Russia.
-While Ukraine appears more open to compromise following military setbacks, Putin continues to pursue battlefield victory.
-The Trump administration’s recent decision to resume military aid to Ukraine suggests a realization that Russia must face continued resistance to reach a point where meaningful peace negotiations become possible.
The Ukraine War Just Won’t End
US President Donald Trump entered office insisting he would end the Ukraine war rapidly (in one day). His initial approach was to pressure Ukraine into substantial concessions while demanding little of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump’s logic appeared to be that Putin was his friend and would respond in good faith.
Trump also seems to have absorbed Putin’s narrative of the war. Trump does not seem to grasp that Putin started the conflict, that Ukraine is the defender, not the aggressor, and that Russian behavior in the war has been appalling.
Indeed, Trump offered Putin such a good deal that it is surprising that Putin did not take it. Trump offered de facto recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, de facto recognition of Putin’s conquests since 2022, rollback of US sanctions on Russia’s economy, and no US security commitment to Ukraine.
This deal is excellent for Moscow. It would give the Russian army and economy a much-needed breather. Russia’s military has not fared well in the war; its casualty estimates are close to one million dead and wounded. Russia’s economy is now hyper-militarized and needs to return to a civilian footing eventually.
A ceasefire with no security commitment would leave Ukraine vulnerable to a renewed Russian attack a few years later.
Putin’s Rejection of Trump’s Generous Deal Tells Us What He Really Wants
The crafty Putin play would have been to take the deal now, re-arm and re-fit, and then destabilize Ukraine again later. Indeed, this was a big concern for Ukraine’s backers. It was a bad deal for Ukraine, but Kyiv is desperate to placate Trump and achieve at least a ceasefire. Putin had the great opportunity to solidify his war gains and slip out from under international opprobrium.
That Putin rejected such generous terms tells us a lot—namely, that he truly seeks the conquest of most, if not all, of Ukraine. The Russian army is likely not capable of that, but Putin simply does not care. As former Vice President Mike Pence says, Putin’s relentless intractability—his refusal to take even Trump’s balance-positive deal—tells us that “he wants Ukraine, not peace.”
In this way, Trump’s extraordinary pro-Putin posturing has served a useful analytic purpose: Putin was more likely to get a good deal from Trump than any other Western leader, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. That Putin still rejected the most pro-Russian deal available makes unambiguously clear that he wants the war and that the only ‘peace’ he will accept is a Ukrainian surrender. Even Vice President J.D. Vance, a relentless critic of Zelenskyy, seems to grasp this now.
Ending Wars Requires Both Sides to be Exhausted and Seek Peace
There is extensive literature in political science on war termination. Unless one side is completely obliterated on the battlefield, most conflicts end when both sides prefer peace over continuing the conflict. They become amenable to ending hostilities when the perception of future battlefield success becomes dim and the costs of continuing to fight exceed the costs of peace. In William Zartman’s words, they reach a ‘mutually hurting stalemate.
Ukraine has almost certainly reached this point of flexibility. It has signaled a willingness to engage in Trump’s various deals despite the poor terms for Kyiv. Ukraine’s big chance to roll back Russian gains was in the much-hyped offensive of 2023. Since that effort failed, the war has mostly stalemated. A deal where Ukraine loses some territory but mainly persists as a free and independent state is not a bad outcome at this late date.
President Donald Trump greets President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine, Friday, February 28, 2025, in the West Wing Lobby. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok).
Russia has notably not reached this point of acceptance. Trump is the most pro-Russian Western leader in generations. He has offered various deals far better than his predecessor ever would have. Yet Putin has turned them down and continues to muse about using nuclear weapons to win the war. He genuinely seems to believe that Russia can win.
The Trump administration seems to have finally grasped this with its decision to militarily aid Ukraine again. Trump must give Ukraine the tools to fight until Putin reaches that hurting stalemate. The only alternative for peace is the total Russian conquest of Ukraine, which even Trump realizes would be a catastrophe for the West and the United States.
About the Author: Dr. Robert E. Kelly
Dr. Robert E. Kelly is a professor of political science at Pusan National University. Kelly is also a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor. You can find him on X: @Robert_E_Kelly.
America First
May 6, 2025 at 1:29 pm
Russophobic neocon propaganda. If it wasn’t a catastrophe for Ukraine to be part of the USSR for most of last century it’s not a catastrophe for it to be part of Russia now. On the other hand AIPAC owning the US government and media is a catastrophe.
waco
May 6, 2025 at 2:40 pm
Pure nonsense.
Nothing from trump can be regarded as positive, let alone ‘excellent’ with the view who sent US-made javelins there in 2019 in the background.
But Putin is truly dumb and stupid today, so trump is trying to twirl him around his little finger.
Anyway, things could really go full steam ahead after may 9, when there’s the possibility of Putin disappearing from the scene.
Once Putin’s gone, the obstacles to victory suddenly become less severe.
Michael
May 6, 2025 at 3:07 pm
” The only alternative for peace is the total Russian conquest of Ukraine, …”
Peace comes when rashka-paraska collapses. Considering that putin himself, the high-priest of the fascist death-cult that is kremlin of today, will not be at the parade in person (too busy, says peskov) is akin to the pope not attending Christmas mass.
Just like during prigozhin’s run on Mockba, the coward evaporates.
Jim
May 6, 2025 at 3:56 pm
There are so many misstatements by the author regarding the issues surrounding the Ukraine conflict it’s not worth listing them out.
But the most blatant misstatement regards Ukraine.
Zelensky outright rejected Trump’s peace proposal.
Zelensky is willing to do a 30 day cease fire because he thinks that’s going to get him a Korean-style armistice, so he can rebuild his military and have Nato countries act as so-called “peace keepers” really acting as “protectors” of the Kiev regime.
Zelensky wants something like Minsk III.
The Russians aren’t going to be Charlie Brown while Zelensky pulls the football like Lucy, again.
Ukraine violated Minsk I and II and never intended to honor either agreement as we learned from former German Chancellor, Angela Merkel and former French President François Hollande who both publicly admitted Minsk was simply a way to buy time to build Ukraine’s military.
Interesting how the Banderites who leave comments here seem always to project onto Russia what Ukraine is, itself, doing.
Banderites are inveterate liars and projectors. And, the Banderites in Kiev are killers and murders, too.
The war will continue and somebody will lose.
Jürgen
May 6, 2025 at 4:15 pm
I agree with America First. Kelly’s entire article is complete nonsense, saturated with Russophobia!
In 10 years, we can return to the conversation about how the “war” between Russia and ukraine ended. ukraine within the borders of 2021 will simply not exist – only miserable pieces will remain of it.
And upon hearing the name Robert Kelly in academic circles after such “analytical articles” they will simply laugh out loud, recalling all his “analytics”, which are not worth a dime!
bobb
May 6, 2025 at 5:00 pm
Trump just got himself slapped down by carney during his meeting with the Canada PM on Tuesday may 6 2025.
Canada is not for sale, said carney to Donald trump.
Canada is not Ukraine where trump can sign a deal after some suitable arm twisting.
Canada has arms and hands way larger than kyiv’s.
Don’t try that tactic with Canada as Canada is made up of provinces rich in minerals, natural resources, money and bigfoot. Cryptid creatures.
You don’t wanna wrestle with cryptids.
Michael
May 6, 2025 at 5:05 pm
Dzhim, from yourself you know others. In psychology it is known as projection. Have a nice parade.
Tick-tock.
Ol'Timer
May 6, 2025 at 8:18 pm
I want to save Russia and Ukraine from the ravages of this war but if Russia insists on enslaving Ukraine, then Ukraine has the right to free itself by any means necessary.
I admire Ukrainian courage enough to want to fund and arm Ukrainians for as long as they keep fighting, which won’t be forever (e.g., it took Russia’s “undefeatable” Red Army about 10 years to get tired of Afghanistan).
The collective West has far more money, technology, people, resources and productive capacity than Russia ever will . . . plenty to kill every Russian soldier that tries to drag Ukrainians, kicking and screaming back, into Russian slavery.
A good deal is on the table, Vlad.
You should take it.
The terms won’t get better.
You’re just getting people killed because you’re deluded or sadistic (maybe both).
Swamplaw Yankee
May 7, 2025 at 12:32 am
Any Yankee just can not process an orc muscovite peasant who has existed 10 times longer than the united states exists.
The Yankee is all about who said what to Wkackoff Weirdo clown shame show. A few go back to 2014.
The orc muscovite peasant russian paid huge money to the Muslim Khans six centuries back. The Orc muscovite peasant wanted to have their bi-annual sex trade caravans into the Ukraine without a physical threat. The Muslim Khan could interfere with their Muslim forces and even seize Muscovites for the muslim sex trade.
Ad rem: In 2014 Obama returned this ancient peasant russian need for sex trade deviancy and huge cash flow. The Obama Democrat cabal green lighted their unilateral free no-cost giveaway of ancient Ukrainian soil and families in Crimea for the muscovite sex trade.
Putin was eckstatic as he immediately sent in “little green groomers” into Crimea to cooperate with Russian traitors in the location of little Ukrainian girls and boys for kidnapping. Now, that made every Russian muscovite peasant totally supportive of Putin as “free” russian language teachers were so needy of new “students”. The russian peasant was suddenly satisfied with Putin as Putin ensured that dusty table tops in Moscow could be returned at no-cost to active “service”.
The American can not comprehend that in 1616 Ukrainian fathers had to fight the muslim and orc muscovite sex traders to free their kidnapped children.
The proof: Today, the MAGA elite 100% refuses to demand Putin pre-pay $10,000,000 in gold bullion for every and each kidnapped Ukrainian child as compensation and reparation. Then, after payment, send in the Whackooff Weirdoe shame show stooges.
The proof: Today, the MAGA elite offer a free ten years of victimization of Ukrainian children to the orc muscovite peasant russians.
Just as in 1616, Ukrainian fathers and mothers in 2025 have to fight the orc muscovite russian peasant who wants their deviant “Lolita” moments offered by Putin. The russian peasant wants the same genetic needs satisfied as when they paid off the muslim khans 500 years ago.
Peace is the MSM code word for unlimited child sex trade human trafficking by Putin’s orc muscovite elite. The international joke is that the MAGA elite have such fake deflective concern about the death of orc muscovite “Lolita” sex traders at the hands of Ukrainian fathers on the front line. The same MAGA elite maintain complete silence about the ongoing satisfaction of the russian peasant human trafficking that the Obama cabal green lighted in 2014. -30-
Bankotsu
May 7, 2025 at 3:14 am
Total garbage article. Putin already said that he wanted to annex all of the territory of the four oblasts in Eastern Ukraine. Trump didn’t offer Russia that.
Daniel
May 7, 2025 at 3:27 am
I don’t think Trump is pro-Russian. I believe he simply tried to make Russia to ally with the USA against China; while this would be a logical move for Russians, it will never happen, at least not with Putin in power. Trump naturally does not care about Ukraine a lot, for him they are just something to offer as a part of the bigger deal (i.e anti-Chinese coalition). But this will change and I think pretty soon. There were two possible ways how to prepare the stage for the Chinese conflict, one was to pacify Russia, and other is to crush them. Putin obviously decided to take the risk and will be on Chinese side. Trump however must see it now and I think he will act accordingly. I also believe it is rather naive to believe that Trump plays buddies with another politicians. As if he did ever before, both in politics and business. It only interests him if somebody can be useful for him or not and the rest is just a show. Putin just decided he will not be useful, so let’s see what comes next.
Bankotsu
May 7, 2025 at 3:41 am
This article is pure garbage.
Voice of Reason
May 7, 2025 at 9:15 am
Article is a parallel universe.
The reality is that Trump sided with the side that had more cards (Russia), offered Ukraine a way out basically on near Russian terms and Ukraine refused.
Why has Ukraine refused? Because it cynically thinks it doesn’t have to until its military is truly collapsing. When, not if, collapse comes it come back to the US and say “see look! you need to save us now!”
There is not going to be a snap back on views of the war in Ukraine regardless of how quickly the government there buckles when the time comes. The Western public and even most elite are sick of it.
Donald Trump certainly is not going to help Ukraine any further. Trump’s aims of not paying Zelensky a dime are met regardless of what Zelensky does now. Now Ukraine and Europe will pay the US for the privilege of buying our weapons and continuing a war which is now well and truly lost (and therefore pointless).
Efforts to get some kind of political dividend against Trump from Ukraine sinking into the tar pit of history are ludicrous. The American public simply does not care about this issue, and to the extent they do, the majority supports Trump.
You pull a 60 billion dollar a year rug out from under a military like Ukraine’s it’s going to sink, and sink fast. When does the money run out? It’s already starting to but if last year is analagous it will get tough starting in July, with panic setting in by the fall.
That’s when Zelensky will take the deal and hop on his private jet to go live very well somewhere in Western Europe.
Michael
May 7, 2025 at 1:09 pm
Russia single fibreoptic factory got bombed last night (second time around). Two airports close to Mockba that are used for military planes for the 9th May parade got bombed, leaving St. Leningrad airports were piled up with airplanes rerouted. And putin the coward (as history will know him) is ”too busy” to attend the parade in person.
Meanwhile, russia bombs apartment buildings. Right.
Tick-tock.
Tom aron
May 7, 2025 at 3:09 pm
The USA is an enemy combatant and not a neutral party. The head of the NATO alliance is not going ‘to set the terms’ for any deal to bring peace to this conflict. Despite western media journalism ( or lack of it), Russia is winning and, as importantly, winning on the international level as populations in European countries stop supporting this conflict at the expense of their economic welfare.
Michael
May 7, 2025 at 3:55 pm
” Russia is winning and, …”
Hilarious! Is that why putin is ”too busy” to attend at the parade the 9th?
Eric Blievernicht
May 7, 2025 at 7:11 pm
“Trump does not seem to grasp that Putin started the conflict, that Ukraine is the defender, not the aggressor, and that Russian behavior in the war has been appalling. ”
The author does not seem to grasp that these are all neocon lies. Russia is the defender, NATO/EU with its post-2014 coup Ukrainian puppet state is the aggressor, and Ukrainian/NATO behavior before and during the war has been absolutely appalling and hypocritical. Stop covering for the neo-Nazis and the murderous terrorists of the globalist homofascist elites.
We (America) should be bombing autocratic anti-democracy countries like Germany and England and France, with Russia as our ally, until they allow free and fair elections and stop arresting and imprisoning thousands of people while denying their basic human rights like free speech and freedom of religion.
George Gordon Byron
May 7, 2025 at 10:30 pm
To Michael:
1) You are also a prophet! How do you know whether Putin will be at the parade or not on May 9 in advance? Provide a source! Or are you just blowing bubbles in the bathtub.
2) Will you report on every facility destroyed in Russia? And about the facilities destroyed in Ukraine, too, or is it not important?
Michael
May 8, 2025 at 5:00 am
”… the neo-Nazis and the murderous terrorists of the globalist homofascist elites.”
You forgot the lesbian environmentalist kindergarten-teachers. They’re the worst.
Chris
May 8, 2025 at 12:06 pm
The article is on track.
Many of the comments are unbelievably stupid.
Collect your kopecks and carry on, Borises.
Michael
May 8, 2025 at 5:23 pm
Georgyi,
That was old news, my bad 🙁 Seems like putin the coward arranged human shields – Winnie the Xi will be there to protect him. And no internet, so no one can post anything embarrassing.
But the fibre-optics factory is so interesting, you see – if I’m not mistaken, it is your only such factory, no? So now you need to source all your fibre-optic cable from abroad = much more cumbersome to supply fibre-optic FPVs. Nothing comparable that you rashka-paraska attack, you specialize in hospitals, kindergartens, apartment buildings, markets, playgrounds and the occasional thermal power plant. But that won’t win a war – it’s just a sign of impotence.
And among the more mundane news, I understand the potato harvest last year was down and so the potato price is now at record levels. But hey, the siloviki don’t eat such simple food, and who cares about ordinary folks?
Tick-tock.*
*) The 2025 summer offensive and the war itself ”doesn’t end well” according to Girkin/Strelkov. He seems like a prophet.
ZivBnd
May 10, 2025 at 9:54 pm
Trump never cared that much about Ukraine one way or the other. Nor did he care about Russia that much, other than as a pawn to be played against the real threat to America, China.
Ok, maybe Russia is closer to a rook, rather than a pawn. Because Ukraine most definitely is a pawn, simply a piece to be used and sacrificed as needed.
But Putin has made it clear that he will not play on the side of the US against China, so Trump is running out of patience with him.
The chess match between Trump/the GOP party and China/the Dem party is coming to its penultimate stage, and Trump has no time to waste on a rook that is not willing to play its role.
Goodbye, Putin.