Key Points – Lee Jae-myung is favored to win South Korea’s snap presidential election on June 3rd, following President Yoon Seok-yeol’s impeachment.
-Lee’s anticipated foreign policy, described as “Trumpist” due to its transactional and value-free nature, signals a potential shift.
-He controversially suggests South Korea might not side with the US if China attacks Taiwan and advocates for re-engaging with Russia.
-This stance stems from South Korea’s proximity to threats and doubts about US reliability under President Trump. Such a policy could severely strain the US-South Korea alliance and further erode the rules-based order in East Asia.
South Korea Will Soon Elect A New President
South Korea will hold a presidential election on June 3. This was unanticipated. The country’s previous president, Yoon Seok-Yeol, was impeached and removed earlier this year. The candidates have now been formally declared, and the campaign has begun.
The consensus is that the leftist or progressive candidate, Lee Jae Myung, will win. Lee nearly won the last election in 2022. However, a factional left-wing candidate pulled nearly 3% away from Lee, throwing the election to Yoon. That outcome is unlikely this time. Public disgust over the impeachment will likely give Lee the presidency.
While domestic issues will dominate the debate, as in any democracy, Lee’s foreign policy instincts will cause controversy among South Korea’s overseas partners.
South Korea and Sino-Russian Imperialism
Lee has provoked the most controversy with various comments over the years that South Korea should not take sides if China attacks Taiwan. Lee’s approach seems to be strategic ambiguity and hedging. That is, rather than commit to a US-led coalition to defend Taiwan, South Korea will initially hang back.
South Korean defection on cooperation against Chinese revisionism would worsen the erosion of the rules-based order in East Asia. The core norm of that order is that military conquest to change borders is illegitimate. A Chinese attack on Taiwan would obviously violate that principle. South Korean defection over Taiwan would also undercut South Korea’s moral claim on international assistance should it later be attacked by North Korea or perhaps China.
More importantly for Seoul, should the US fight China over Taiwan, South Korean nonparticipation would end the US-South Korea alliance at a stroke. It is inconceivable that the US would extend a security guarantee to a wealthy, conventionally powerful state that chose not to help the US in its most significant conflict since World War II. Lee never notes this in his comments on China. This is a huge, unresolved issue in South Korea’s grand strategy.
Lee has also suggested that South Korea should resume regular diplomatic and economic intercourse with Russia despite the ongoing Ukraine invasion. This would be a similarly sharp U-turn in South Korean foreign policy. The previous conservative administration participated in the sanctions on Russia and provided the shells that powered the Ukrainian offensive in 2023. However, given Trump’s similar desire to end the sanctions and isolation of Russia, Lee’s transactional, value-free foreign policy orientation is in good company now. Lee, like Trump, appears to have little interest in defending liberal norms.
South Korea Could Go It Alone
Still, there is logic in Lee’s position beyond obvious selfishness and buck-passing. South Korea is proximate to China and faces a tough local competitor in North Korea. Should it participate in a war over Taiwan, it would almost certainly absorb many Chinese missile strikes.
US airbases in South Korea would be used to conduct strike packages against Chinese targets, which would bring further retaliation. If South Korea, as the US ally most near China, were to commit to fighting it in a Taiwan war, it would need an iron-clad US commitment that America would fight for South Korea.
Unfortunately, US President Donald Trump is incapable of making such commitments. Indeed, Trump is notorious for breaking contracts and simply abandoning partners as a businessman and president. In Europe today, the US’ Article 5′ commitment to NATO is almost certainly a dead letter. No one believes that the US under Trump would fight Russia to defend Europe. Lee and his circle are likely figuring that the same applies to South Korea.
Worse, if China defeated the US over Taiwan, South Korea would be stuck next to a belligerent, angry China, even as the US simply withdrew from the region. South Korea also has the alternative of developing nuclear weapons to defend itself without US help, which, too, would allow it to stand aside from any Taiwan conflict.
So, the foreign policy stakes of this election are high. Despite his progressive credentials, Lee is a Trumpist foreign policy candidate. He is transactional and disinterested in the liberal order. His election will accelerate the erosion of East Asian regional rules, as is already evident in Europe.
About the Author: Dr. Robert E. Kelly
Dr. Robert E. Kelly is a professor of political science at Pusan National University. Kelly is also a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor. You can find him on X: @Robert_E_Kelly.
