Key Points and Summary – Russia’s Su-75 Checkmate, once marketed with its own cologne, is struggling to escape “vaporware” status as foreign buyers like the UAE back out.
-Plagued by weight issues, unclear mission roles, and sanctions-driven shortages of high-tech components, the “stealth” fighter has failed to secure orders.
-With experts like the RAND Corporation warning it may be mere “marketing vapor,” potential customers are increasingly favoring combat-proven drones over Moscow’s delayed and undefined jet.
Russia’s ‘Checkmate’: Why the New Su-75 Stealth Fighter May Be Little More Than ‘Vaporware’
One thing that always makes me chuckle about Russia’s new Su-75 Checkmate next-generation fighter is that the manufacturers once created a cologne to market the airplane at an air show. The Checkmate was supposed to pass the smell test, but it has encountered significant difficulties since becoming an offering on the export market.
The Su-75 may never graduate beyond “vaporware” due to a host of problems – namely, foreign governments are turning up their noses at the airplane despite the bottle of fragrance intended to sweeten the deal.
The Checkmate was meant to be a stealthy export option like the Su-57 Felon and cheaper than the F-35. The Felon itself has been another disappointment in the war against Ukraine.
More Su-57s are flying now over the skies of Ukraine, but the Felon has not dominated the fight as much as the Russians had hoped.
Could the Su-75 Die on the Vine?
Russia’s Sukhoi Design Bureau wanted the Checkmate to be a hit, but it just has no takers. The United Arab Emirates was once interested but backed out of the deal, likely because it suspected that international sanctions against Russia would make it difficult for Sukhoi to build the Su-75 in numbers.
The first flight of the Su-75 may happen later this year, though, and that could give the program some momentum as it graduates from ground testing.
Su-57 and Su-75 Checkmate Russian Air Force.
Su-57 Felon and Su-75 Fighters From Russia. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
What Does It Want to Be When It Grows Up?
One of the Su-75’s problems is weight. It was meant to be a light, agile fighter similar to an F-16 Viper, only with stealth capabilities. The prototype airplane became heavier than expected, and its speed and performance were hampered.
The Russians could not decide on how to sell the Checkmate. Is it a fighter-bomber? Or should it be considered multi-role or air superiority? Ground-strike capabilities were considered, but the Checkmate could best be described as an amalgam of the various descriptors used to classify fighter jets. It is trying to be all things to all countries, which has held it back from securing successful export agreements.
Five-Year Development Plan
By now, the Checkmate should have been in serial production. It started as a prototype at a Moscow air show in 2021. The plan was to get countries to place pre-orders with money given up front to fund further production.
Since this hasn’t happened and the war has created difficulties with the aerospace industrial base, the Su-75 program has languished.
India Could Still Be Interested in Su-75 Checkmate
Originally, the Su-75 was targeted toward African countries, Vietnam, and India. At the time, India was particularly seeking a stealth fighter jet that could lead the way in a potential conflict with Pakistan.
India struggled last year in a major dogfight, suggesting its air force may be weak. Pakistan’s J-10Cs shot down at least one Indian Rafale, which is made in China. India needs an upgrade, but the Checkmate may not be the right fit.
A New Powerplant May Not Be In the Cards
The Su-75 also needs a newfangled engine as a selling point. But that hasn’t come to pass, as engineers have been forced to focus on the Su-57’s propulsion system instead. The Su-57 comes with the Saturn AL-41F1 low-bypass turbofan engine—the same engine that powers the Su-35.
Could the Su-75 use the Saturn AL-41F1 too? This question has remained unanswered and has crimped the Checkmate program.
Su-75. Image Credit: Russian Government.
Su-75 mockup image. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Su-75 Checkmate. Image Credit: TASS.
Plus, will the Checkmate really become a fifth-generation fighter? The avionics suite is not expected to be that impressive. Stealth attributes are difficult for the Russians to produce on the Checkmate, and micro-processing chips are hard to come by due to sanctions.
What Is the Correct Price Point?
Next is the price. The Russians are assuring potential customers that the Checkmate will be affordable, but since the acquisition plans are not concrete at this point, it’s hard to put a final price tag on the jet. The longer the Russians wait to build their numbers, the higher the unit costs will be.
What about weapons? The airplane would need the F-22’s dog-fighting ability and beyond-visual-range missiles.
Also, the F-35’s ground-strike capabilities would make countries take another look at the Checkmate. But since the Su-75 is still mainly in the testing phase, the Russians can only make idle promises.
The Su-57 has endured production delays, too, and Sukhoi needs the Felon to be a complete success before it can truly say the Su-75 will enter serial production with many customers around the world.
Just Buy a Fleet of Drones Instead of Su-75?
Plus, this is the era of cheaply made combat drones. Why would an air force opt for an expensive new airplane when they can adapt an unmanned system to be a dependable strike aircraft? Turkey’s Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicle is a quality and combat-proven drone.
A significant fleet of drones would be a worthy investment, without the need for a medium-weight fighter-bomber that may or may not be stealthy.
Think Tank Believes the Su-75 Is a Stinker
“Given the Russian aerospace sector’s difficulties in developing, let alone delivering, advanced combat aircraft, prospective Checkmate buyers should consider a range of options to meet defense needs. What’s attractive about the sales pitch may in the end be marketing vapor that will simply evaporate,” according to the RAND Corporation.
We’ll keep an eye on the Su-75, but I’m not optimistic.
There are too many question marks and no target date for mass production. Moreover, the exact role of the fighter remains unclear.
Potential customers are evaluating different options and hope to save on both money and training costs by using more affordable off-the-shelf combat drones
. The Checkmate would be a total failure, and that would make Vladimir Putin furious with his aerospace industry, which just can’t seem to catch a break lately.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Author of now over 3,000 articles on defense issues, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
