Summary and Key Points: F-35 Heading North? Canada’s fighter replacement saga is tightening into a political and financial trap.
-While Ottawa publicly reviews whether to stick with an all–F–35 fleet, reports suggest it has begun paying for long-lead items for 14 additional jets—moves that quietly preserve a place in the production line.
-U.S. pressure is rising, with warnings that reducing the planned 88 aircraft could force changes to NORAD and push the United States to cover capability gaps.
-Ottawa is also weighing a mixed fleet pairing F-35s with Saab’s Gripen to reduce dependence, but that compromise could create new costs and complications.
Canada’s F-35 Review Isn’t Over—Ottawa Is Already Paying for 14 More Jets
F-35 for Ottawa? Canada’s long-running fighter jet replacement saga is far from over.
In fact, the episode is taking on an increasingly precarious shape, with Ottawa publicly “reviewing” whether to stick with an all–F-35 fleet.
Behind the scenes, however, it continues to lay the groundwork for keeping more F-35s on the table.
Last week, CBC News reported that Canada has begun making payments for “long-lead items” tied to 14 additional F-35s.
These components must be ordered years in advance to hold a spot in the global production queue. The Department of National Defence declined to confirm new financial commitments at the time, saying its review is ongoing, while Defence Minister David McGuinty has continued to stress that only 16 jets have been formally acquired so far.
But Washington is not afraid of throwing its weight around, and U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra has warned that if Canada does not proceed with the planned 88 F-35s, NORAD “would have to be altered.”’
Such a shift would force the U.S. to fly more of its own fighters to fill the gaps.
Ottawa, meanwhile, is weighing whether a mixed fleet of F-35s alongside a European jet such as Saab’s JAS 39 Gripen, could whittle down dependence on its southern neighbour.
F-35 Fighters and JAS 39 Gripen Together for Canada?
The mixed-fleet proposal received a detailed airing in a Globe and Mail op-ed recently penned by University of Ottawa professor Peter Jones.
Jones cited familiar complaints about the overhead of training and maintaining two aircraft types. He also outlined the gaps in operating costs, with the F-35 totalling some US$35,000–US$50,000 per flight hour versus US$8,000–US$12,000 for the Gripen.
A smaller number of F-35 hours could reduce costs, while they could also be used primarily for missions linked to the U.S. Jones suggests that Gripens be used for NATO deployments and routine patrols.
Saab CEO Micael Johansson has described Canada as exploring a dual fleet “not to be too dependent on the US,” and said Saab is providing detailed timelines on technology transfer and how quickly a Canadian production line could be established. Saab has talked up local assembly and job creation, while U.S. officials have signalled that cutting F-35 numbers could carry consequences for continental defence arrangements.
Canada’s review is being sold as a strategic pivot, but every payment or political row makes reversing course pricier.
A “mixed fleet” could be a worthy compromise, or it could end up being a half-measure that satisfies no one.
About the Author: Georgia Gilholy
Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education. You can follow her on X: @llggeorgia.
