Summary and Key Points: Canada’s $19 billion commitment to the F-35 is hanging by a thread as Prime Minister Mark Carney signals a tectonic shift in North American defense.
-Despite a celebratory rollout in Texas, Carney’s recent pivot toward China and interest in Sweden’s JAS 39 Gripen have ignited fears that the deal for 88 stealth fighters is in jeopardy.
A U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning II participating in NATO exercise Ramstein Flag 24 flies over the west coast of Greece, Oct. 4, 2024. Over 130 fighter and enabler aircraft from Greece, Canada, France, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and United States are training side by side to improve tactics and foster more robust integration, demonstrating NATO’s resolve, commitment and ability to deter potential adversaries and defend the Alliance. (U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Emili Koonce)
-With President Trump threatening massive tariffs over Canada’s “pro-Beijing” rhetoric, the alliance is facing its worst crisis in decades.
-The choice between the American F-35 and the Swedish Gripen isn’t just about stealth—it’s a high-stakes gamble on the future of global leadership.
Beyond the F-35: Why Canada Is Playing Hard-to-Get With the U.S. Air Force
The Canadian military always astounds me. It goes back to when I was in the U.S. Army Basic Combat Training: a group of Canadian soldiers observing us asked if we ever took beer breaks.
I’m not sure to this day if that was a joke or a real concern.
So, it should not surprise me that the Canadian armed forces are still sending mixed messages to the United States.
I’m referring to the U.S.-Canada F-35 Lightning II saga. The Great White North is supposed to fully honor a deal for Lockheed Martin to send 88 F-35s to the Canadian air force.
But Prime Minister Mark Carney is playing hard-to-get.
He is coming off a curious speech he gave at the World Economic Forum in Davos, in which he lamented the lack of complete U.S. global hegemony and called for a new era with China as the pre-eminent world power. In Carney’s new construct, Canada may look to China for leadership rather than to its southern neighbors in North America.
A U.S. Air Force F-35 Lightning II fighter jet from the 56th Fighter Wing, Luke Air Force Base, Arizona, displays it’s crew-designed red, white and blue inlet covers while parked in a military aircraft shelter at the Atlantic City International Airport in Egg Harbor Township, N.J. on May 26, 2016. Pilots and crew from the USAF F-35 Heritage Flight Team made a stop at the 177th Fighter Wing of the New Jersey Air National Guard on the way to their performance at the Jones Beach Airshow in Wantagh, New York on May 28 and 29. (U.S. Air National Guard photo by Master Sgt. Andrew J. Moseley/Released)
Sweden Has a Good Offer on the Table
Does that mean Carney doesn’t see the United States as the main Canadian ally? This could be the case, and if so, Canada may just cancel the F-35 order and buy Sweden’s JAS 39 Gripen instead.
The Gripen is a high-quality 4.5-generation warbird that would satisfy customers worldwide and enable Canada to protect its vast borders in style.
However, there is one stipulation in all of this. Canada has already paid for 16 F-35s. So they may receive the first batch and either cancel the rest or go all in on the full 88-airplane order.
Somebody’s Having a Party
So what should Canada do next? The Air Force decided to send a contingent to the Lockheed Martin facility in Fort Worth, Texas, for a celebration. This was a rousing reception to trumpet the first F-35 produced for Canada.
An Edwards AFB F-35A Lightning II fires an AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile as part of Weapons Delivery Accuracy testing. The 461st Flight Test Squadron and F-35 Integrated Test Force completed WDA testing in early December, which concludes a large and important part of F-35 developmental test and evaluation. (Courtesy photo by Chad Bellay/Lockheed Martin)
This was a decent gesture from the Canadians, a people who are known for their kindness and even-temperedness.
The commander of the Canadian air force even signed the fuselage of the first F-35.
Reading the Tea Leaves
What does this mean?
Will Canada honor the full F-35 agreement now?
This situation is becoming concerning. Perhaps America’s ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, is working behind the scenes with Carney’s national security team to coax the Canadians to buy more than the first 16 fighters.
Why else would Canada’s air force venture down to Texas for a party?
Trump is Being a Burr in the Saddle
That first F-35 with Canada’s name on it is receiving its final touches, and the air force representatives from Ottawa are paying proper respects despite the constant hectoring and needling from President Donald Trump.
U.S. Air Force Maj. Kristin “BEO” Wolfe, F-35A Lightning II Demonstration Team commander, flies over Kennewick, Washington, during the Tri-Cities Water Follies Airshow Over the River, July 30, 2023. The F-35 Demonstration Team participated in the 2023 Tri-Cities Water Follies airshow and various other events in support of their mission to recruit, retain and inspire new and old generations of Airmen. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Kaitlyn Ergish)
“In his most recent salvo, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to withdraw certification and impose tariffs on Canadian-made aircraft. He has also recently threatened 100 per cent tariffs on all Canadian imports if Ottawa ‘makes a deal with China.,’” CBC Canada said to remind their readers that Trump’s antics are still a problem.
It’s All About Jobs
Now what?
Carney has not yet made a final decision on the remaining ordered F-35s. Sweden is making a deal that will allow parts and components, as well as final assembly, of some of the Gripens to be produced in Canada. This will bring more jobs to the country’s defense industrial base, although many F-35 parts are also produced in Canada. Either choice will spur economic development in Toronto and other cities.
Is This the End of a Good Relationship with the Americans?
Carney’s speech in Davos could mean different things vis-à-vis the United States. This could be a complete 180-degree turn for the Americans, allowing the Canadians to work more closely with Sweden. Or it could be a means of pressuring Trump to ease some of the tariff warfare tactics.
The Canadian government has not yet made a decision on the F-35 agreement, and Americans are wondering whether the whole deal will be in jeopardy. To be sure, the Canadian air force contingent visiting the Lockheed Martin plant is a good sign, but Carney is still keeping his cards close to his chest.
Two U.S. Air Force F-35A Lighting IIs fly in formation with two ROKAF F-35As during Freedom Shield 25, a defense-oriented exercise featuring live, virtual, and field-based training, March 13, 2025. The aircraft participated in dynamic targeting and aerial refueling training, validating the capability of ROK and U.S. Air Forces, to find, fix, and defeat a range of threats. (Photo courtesy of Republic of Korea Air Force)
President Trump should make a personal plea to Carney to honor the 88 F-35 commitment. But pride always seems to get in the way. Why should Carney budge if he thinks that Sweden could sweeten their already enticing offer? Does that mean Canada could choose the Gripen if the Swedes cut the price tag on the JAS 39? That remains to be seen.
New Development Could Be a Positive Sign for the F-35
The latest celebration with Lockheed Martin is a good sign for the Americans, though. It looks like Ottawa will take the first tranche of fighters. It would be a pity if the Canadians went for the Gripen. NORAD has raised concerns that Canada’s potential mix of F-35s and JAS 39 Gripens would be disadvantageous to North American security. The idea is that both nations should always have interoperable communications and connectivity in future warfare. Canadian F-35s square the circle.
A crew chief assigned to the 158th Fighter Wing, taxis an F-35A Lightning II fifth generation aircraft assigned to the wing at the Vermont Air National Guard Base, South Burlington, Vermont, May 2, 2022. The aircraft departed to Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany, to continue NATO’s Enhanced Air Policing mission along the Eastern Flank. (U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Richard Mekkri)
The Indians Excel at Economic Statecraft
Carney may listen to these worries about NORAD. The Canadians seem to be playing the game like India. The Indians are known for being unaligned with the Americans and Russians. This dates back to the Cold War, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi just struck a trade deal with Trump that will help relations.
Carney may copy how the Indians used geoeconomics and play the Americans off against the Swedes. If that’s the case, the F-35 complete deal may remain on pause. We will continue to cover this story to see what happens with the full F-35 agreement. The suspense is palpable, and a final decision could come any day. Hopefully, the Canadians can still consider the Americans to be great allies and end up flying 88 F-35s someday.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Author of now over 3,000 articles on defense issues, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
Timothy
February 4, 2026 at 8:32 am
Brent, the bellicose rhetoric of the current “administration” in Washington is what’s the real issue here. He threatened to invade us and make us the 51’st state. Annex is merely a pretty word for invasion.
Canada needs to remove itself from the undue influence of the Disunited States of America, and one good step towards honouring our full commitment to our people and our sovereignty is to minimize the F-35 purchases and maximize the Gripen purchases.
Erik Gertkvist
February 4, 2026 at 8:35 am
In which way is Gripen not able to provide “interoperable communications and connectivity”? Sweden uses Nato standard since many years, and Gripen is designed to be easy to upgrade and adapt to new standards.
Bob Dunlop
February 8, 2026 at 11:39 am
“He is coming off a curious speech he gave at the World Economic Forum in Davos, in which he lamented the lack of complete U.S. global hegemony and called for a new era with China as the pre-eminent world power. In Carney’s new construct, Canada may look to China for leadership rather than to its southern neighbors in North America.”
Where in Carney’s Davos speech did he call for China to be the pre-eminent world power? Carney’s speech was critical of the way world powers, both China and the US, bully middle powers.
Canada is not looking to China for leadership. That suggestion is nonsense. Our recent trade deal with China lowers tariffs on Chinese EVs representing 3% of the Canadian car market, and in return China lowers tariffs on canola oil. Trump says that if we sign the deal, he will raise tariffs on all Canadian goods to 100%!
Canada can no longer trust the US. A deal with Trump is only a deal until he changes his mind. How can Canada buy F-35s, when they cannot fly without continued US support? Trump can pull the plug and ground our F-35s on a whim.