Summary and Key Points: Drawing on his tactical background as a former US Army Special Forces Warrant Officer, defense columnist Steve Balestrieri analyzes the geopolitical and military hurdles facing the HMS Prince of Wales.
-Although the Royal Navy has placed the carrier on a five-day advanced readiness notice in Portsmouth to potentially reinforce Cyprus during Operation Epic Fury, Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s refusal to join offensive strikes has sparked fierce public backlash from President Donald Trump.
Queen Elizabeth-Class Aircraft Carrier.
HMS Queen Elizabeth Royal Navy. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
(Aug. 8, 2017) The Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth II sails in formation alongside the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) during exercise Saxon Warrior 2017, Aug. 8. Saxon Warrior is a United States and United Kingdom co-hosted carrier strike group exercise that demonstrates interoperability and capability to respond to crises and deter potential threats. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Tristan B. Lotz/Released)
-Beyond the diplomatic rift, Balestrieri warns that decades of defense cuts have left the £3 billion supercarrier dangerously vulnerable, plagued by a severe shortage of F-35B stealth fighters, inadequate Phalanx CIWS air defenses, and a lack of active Type 45 destroyers to protect it from Iranian missile swarms.
The Hollow Flagship: Why the HMS Prince of Wales is Vulnerable in the Middle East
The UK Ministry of Defense said that one of the country’s two aircraft carriers had been placed on advanced readiness in Portsmouth, England, for a possible mobilization to the Middle East, according to the BBC. The HMS Prince of Wales must be ready to sail in five days.
The administration of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer had refused to join the offensive airstrikes against Iran, but said its carrier and a destroyer, HMS Dragon, was also preparing to go to Cyprus to bolster defenses on the UK base there.
However, President Trump blasted the UK and Prime Minister Starmer on his Truth Social page on “X” for not joining the effort two weeks ago.
Joining Wars After They Are Already Won?
“The United Kingdom, our once Great Ally, maybe the Greatest of them all, is finally giving serious thought to sending two aircraft carriers to the Middle East,” Trump posted. “That’s OK, Prime Minister Starmer, we don’t need them any longer — But we will remember.
“We don’t need people that join wars after we’ve already won!”
On Saturday, the president was pressed by CBS News on the UK’s deployment and how it could help the US effort against Iran. He said, “I couldn’t care less. They can do whatever they want. The loyal ones are already in.”
Trump was not happy that Starmer refused to allow the US to use its air bases in the UK for refueling American bombers on their way to Iran, resulting in much longer overflights and necessitating in-flight refueling. The president stated that Starmer “is no Winston Churchill.”
But how effective would the HMS Prince of Wales be in the air operations against Iran?
Queen Elizabeth-Class Aircraft Carrier Artist Rendering.
HMS Queen Elizabeth Aircraft Carrier. Image Credit: Royal Navy.
Queen Elizabeth-Class. Image Credit: Royal Navy.
Pictured is an aerial view of HMS Queen Elizabeth as she conducts vital system tests off the coast of Scotland.
Prince Of Wales Has F-35s To Bolster Air Defenses on Cyprus:
The Prince of Wales would be sent to aid in defending British bases in Cyprus, Jordan, and Qatar. It operates a maximum of 72 aircraft, including a maximum of 36 F-35 stealth fighters.
These would bolster the F-35s that the UK already has stationed on Cyprus. The Ministry of Defence (MOD) has stated, “We have been bolstering our UK military presence in the Middle East since January, and we have already deployed capabilities to protect British people and our allies in the region, including Typhoons, F-35 jets, air defence systems, and an extra 400 personnel into Cyprus.
“Since the strikes began, we’ve had British jets in the sky shooting down drowns and have sent additional assets to the region to further reinforce our air defences, including more Typhoons and Wildcat helicopters with drone busting missiles.”
From an offensive standpoint, the Prince of Wales would be limited in its usefulness due to some inherent issues, even if PM Starmer changed his mind on joining the air offensive.
UK Carrier Strike Groups Lack Proper Power Projection
There remain serious questions about whether the carrier strike groups provide adequate power projection. Several factors influence this.
Aircraft availability is a persistent issue. The UK has built its carrier designs around the F-35B, focusing on its air superiority and strike capability. However, procurement delays, maintenance issues, and rising costs have impacted the numbers present. Of the 138 F-35Bs ordered, only a handful are fully operational.
Another big issue for the Royal Navy is the supply of support ships required to defend the carrier in the event of an enemy attack. Destroyers and frigates are needed but in short supply, which could impact the carrier’s survivability against a determined near-peer enemy.
In 1998, the UK had three small aircraft carriers and an escort fleet of 23 frigates, 12 destroyers, and 12 attack submarines.
Currently, the Royal Navy is down to just seven aging Duke-class frigates, six destroyers, and half a dozen attack submarines, also known as hunter-killers.
And those numbers don’t reflect that many of those ships can’t be sailed quickly.
HMS Prince of Wales Aircraft Carrier. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
HMS Prince of Wales Aircraft Carrier.
HMS Prince of Wales Aircraft Carrier.
The Royal Navy operates two Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers, and both have been disappointing, beset by many difficulties. The big ships (the largest that Britain has ever built) are rarely at sea and have been forced to withdraw from exercises due to breakdowns.
The Royal Navy wanted a pair of carriers for power projection. Still, constant mechanical failures, deployment delays, and a shortage of F-35 aircraft have left the carriers a shell of what they were intended to be.
Anti-Air Defenses Inadequate
The carriers do not have any medium-to-long-range air defense systems. The F-35B aircraft complement can be scrambled for an attack, but for aircraft or missile defense, the carriers carry only three Phalanx CIWS (Close-in Weapons System) systems.
The manufacturer hails it as “the last line of defense”; in other words, once missiles, drones, or aircraft pierce the outer security, this system will take over. The CIWS is highly effective. The US Army has used it in combat to take down artillery, mortars, and drones.
However, the maximum effective range is only about 1,500 meters. That is far too close. And with only three Phalanx weapons, a swarm of drones or missiles could be disastrous.
A recent report in November revealed to The London Times that in several exercises and in multiple scenarios, the two Queen Elizabeth class carriers were sunk due to enemy missiles. That doesn’t bode well for their survival in combat.
Other UK ships fire the excellent Sea-Viper anti-aircraft missile. They have successfully used it against Houthi drones and missiles during commercial shipping protection operations, and it needs to be added to the carriers as well.
The Royal Navy Doesn’t Have Enough Ships For Deployment
Decades of defense cuts have sliced the Royal Navy to the bone. So much so, that the Prince of Wales may need NATO support to protect the ship from Iranian missiles or drones to stop it from becoming “just another target.”
Of the fleet’s six destroyers, only HMS Dragon can sail. And of its seven frigates, only HMS Somerset and HMS St Albans are available. The rest are undergoing maintenance or struggling with defects.
Britain also has six attack submarines, but only HMS Anson is active and she is deployed in Australia
In contrast, American carrier strike groups constantly upgrade air defenses to counter the latest anti-ship missiles. The layered defenses are much thicker than those of our British cousins, yet questions remain about the survivability of the Ford class.
The Queen Elizabeth-class Carriers: A History of Problems
Issues have beset the Queen Elizabeth class since her commissioning. The Prince of Wales has only spent 21.3 percent of her time at sea, according to a report by the UK Parliament in May 2023. The carrier had spent 33 percent of its time undergoing repairs.
In 2020, a burst water main in the engine room caused significant flooding, significantly damaging the electrical switchboards.
The HMS Queen Elizabeth was supposed to take part in Exercise Steadfast Defender last year. However, a pre-sailing inspection had identified “an issue with a coupling on [HMS Queen Elizabeth] starboard propeller shaft.” At the time, the Prince of Wales had just returned to sea after its own propeller shaft issues.
The HMS Queen Elizabeth lost a UK-operated F-35B fighter in the Mediterranean in November 2021, thus sparking a recovery effort to ensure that technology did not fall into Russian hands, which operates several vessels in the region.
After an investigation, it was discovered that the UK F-35B had sucked in a cover that protects the engine air intake when the aircraft is inactive, which had not been removed before take-off.
Can UK Carriers Survive Missile Attacks From Iran? Not Without Help
Last year, many experts sounded the alarm about the UK carriers’ ability to survive a shooting war with a modern enemy. “There is a dissonance between the UK’s military ambitions and its capabilities,” Richard Barrons, a former head of the UK’s armed forces, told the Financial Times.
“The risk is that we get drawn into a conflict and can’t sustain our presence, and this exposes a strategic weakness.”
The Queen Elizabeth class of aircraft carriers has had a poor availability record, and the Royal Navy doesn’t have the assets around them to protect all F-35B aircraft, as well as the carriers themselves.
Tom Sharpe, a former Royal Navy officer, said deploying HMS Prince of Wales to the Mediterranean now that the USS Gerald R Ford had left the area “would make me nervous”.
“Removing the protective blanket the USS Ford provides makes me less comfortable sending Prince of Wales there,” he said
Without US or French help in defending the carrier, the Prince of Wales won’t be a significant help in the ongoing air campaign against Iran, even if the government changed its mind and decided to join in.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
