In fact, according to betting aggregator Smarkets, gamblers give the former president the highest likelihood yet of winning in 2024.
“Donald Trump is increasingly likely to be elected president in 2024, after hitting an all-time high in the latest betting-market prices on the Smarkets exchange,” the group said.
According to the aggregator, the former president has a 26% chance of winning in three years – a dramatic increase over the 4% chances of him being re-elected shortly after the January 6 riots that occurred in 2021.
Is Biden Running?
According to Smarkets, current President Joe Biden doesn’t have a great chance of winning re-election next time around. Plagued with rising inflation and an inability to pass landmark Democratic legislation, the president has just a 16% chance of winning next time around according to gamblers.
It’s not surprising, either. President Joe Biden’s opinion ratings have struggled to surpass 40% in the last year, with the latest polls showing a majority of Americans disapproving of the job he’s done so far. According to data from Reuters/Ipsos, 59% of Americans disapprove of the president so far – with just 36% expressing positive views of the president.
A new poll from Gallup also shows how just 16% of adults are happy with the direction the country is headed, while 83% believe that the United States has gone off the rails.
If President Joe Biden truly intends to run in 2024, therefore, he has quite a job to do turning his fortunes around. Biden said in December last year that the prospects of former President Donald Trump running in 2024 would make him more likely to throw his hat in the ring for a second term.
Biden also reportedly told former President Barack Obama earlier this year that he intends to run again in 2024 – a claim that stands in contrast to his promise of being a “transitional” president that he made during the 2020 presidential campaign.
With Vice President Kamala Harris struggling in the polls, too, it’s unlikely at this stage that the Democrats would choose her to go up against former President Trump in a future election.
Whether President Joe Biden runs in 2024, therefore, likely depends entirely on his health.
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society.