Why Ukraine Conducting Counter-Offensive in Kherson Region Is Vital – The Ukrainian General Staff announced that a counter-offensive was taking place in the Kherson Oblast inflicting serious casualties on Russian forces.
And despite the ongoing heavy fighting in the Donbas industrial region, the southern port city and region of Kherson may indeed hold the key to a Ukrainian victory or defeat. The fighting in eastern Ukraine has seen the bloodiest fighting in Europe since World War II.
The General Staff reported on its Facebook page, “As a result of an offensive operation conducted by units of [Ukrainian – ed.] Defence Forces, the enemy suffered losses and took up unfavorable defensive positions near Avdiivka, Lozove, and Bilohirka in Kherson Oblast. Fighting continues.
“The Russian occupiers fired on civilian infrastructure in and around the villages of Prybuzke, Posad-Pokrovske, Blahodatne, Osokorivka, and Novooleksandrivka, and the town of Novovoronstovka, among others. The enemy continues to reinforce its air defense system, in particular by deploying S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems.”
Background On the Fighting in Kherson Oblast
Kherson was the first city to fall to Russia in the earliest days of the invasion that began on February 24. The Russians anticipated a blitzkrieg type of operation where they would take Kyiv and Kharkiv within hours and sweep across the south towards Odesa and the Donbas. It was expected to complete the “special military operation” within days.
Now we know that the operation was far too ambitious. The Russian assaults on Kyiv and Kharkiv were bloody failures. They withdrew their forces from the Kyiv region and reinforced their offensive in the industrial Donbas region. It is generally considered that Russia has re-evaluated its goals in Ukraine to the areas currently held as well as the Donbas. But that may only be until they reconstitute enough combat power that they’ve lost thus far.
The Kherson Oblast may be the key to stopping Russia from winning the war. When Russian forces took the city, it gave them the land bridge to the occupied Crimean peninsula with the Russian proxy entities created by the Kremlin after it annexed the region in 2014. It also served as a staging area for Russian operations threatening Odesa with the goal of reaching the Russian-proxy-held area of Transnistria in Moldava.
If the Russian military succeeds in taking Odesa, Ukraine will no longer have any access to the Black Sea, and the Sea of Azov will essentially become a Russian lake.
For Ukraine, The “Time Is Now” For A Kherson Counteroffensive:
The Putin regime has proclaimed “Russia is here forever” during a recent visit to Kherson. And it is acting within their playbook for occupying the territory. Local leaders are being rounded up, arrested, and in some cases executed while being replaced by Russian puppet leaders who are calling for the annexation of the area.
Ukrainian access to outside news, internet, and mobile phone networks are being cut off, and only the Russian version of the news is allowed. The Ukrainian currency is being replaced by the Russian ruble.
Any sympathetic Ukrainians are being forced into “filtration” camps as Putin continues with the false “denazification” program of eradicating dissent.
Russia’s forces have been severely weakened in the bloody fighting thus far, which is why many feel the time for retaking Ukraine is now while their weak. However, the Ukrainian forces have also suffered terrible casualties as well. In a piece on 1945 just recently, Daniel Davis wrote that for a successful counteroffensive, the Ukrainian military may require as much as 12-18 months of regrouping and rearming before they could be successful.
But the attack by Ukrainian forces has already begun. Intelligence assessments have been hinting at this for weeks and the Russians have been preparing defensive positions in the swampy, marsh area around Kherson that the locals refer to as the Syvash or the Rotten Sea. The area has numerous bridges that would each have to be taken to take back the area. The Ukrainians had all of them mined at the outset of the war, but through lightning-quick raids or treasonous activity on the part of some Ukrainian officers, remains to be seen. None of them were blown up.
With the delivery of many Western long-range artillery systems, including the US-made M777, Ukrainian forces can now reach and destroy Russian strong points. The military posted a message, “Hold on Kherson,” they said on Twitter on Sunday morning. “We’re coming.”
The Ukrainians believe that if Russia is given time, it will generate fresh combat forces that will make a counteroffensive even bloodier and will allow Putin’s regime to continue spreading west and even threatening some of the eastern NATO nations’ borders.
It is also a symbolic target for Russia. Putin has dusted off the old term from Czarist days, “Novorossiya” or “New Russia” to describe the regions of eastern and southern Ukraine that are targeted to be annexed.
While, as Davis so detailed, it would be in the Ukrainians’ best interest to wait for the combat power to take back the Kherson area. But waiting also has its risks of allowing Russia to get stronger.
Steve Balestrieri is a 1945 National Security Columnist. He has served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer before injuries forced his early separation. In addition to writing for 19fortyfive.com and other military news organizations, he has covered the NFL for PatsFans.com for over 10 years. His work was regularly featured in the Millbury-Sutton Chronicle and Grafton News newspapers in Massachusetts.
