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Did Nancy Pelosi Put the U.S. and China on a Path to War?

B-1B Bomber
A U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancer, attached to the 34th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron, Ellsworth Air Force Base, South Dakota, flies over the Pacific Ocean after taking off from Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, June 12, 2022. Bomber Task Force missions contribute to joint force lethality and deter aggression in the Indo-Pacific by demonstrating the United States Air Force’s ability to operate anywhere in the world at any time in support of the National Defense Strategy. (U.S. Air Force Photo by Tech. Sgt. Chris Hibben)

The first step towards a U.S.-China war? House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan exhibited the ostentatious arrogance and recklessness which has come to characterize US foreign policy. The attitude of Washington’s denizens is simple: we are masters of the universe, essential and powerful, and must be obeyed. Everyone on earth must submit to our majestic and supreme greatness.

In any other national capital, the catastrophic military disasters of the last two decades would have forced regime change. Multiple lost and botched wars. Tens of thousands of casualties, dead, maimed, and wounded, many scarred for life. Foreign nations destroyed. Hundreds of thousands of foreigners killed. Millions of people displaced, many never to return home.

Why does anyone look to Washington for leadership today?

In America, not one policymaker has been held accountable for this terrible mess of policy pottage. The world’s most important, powerful, militaristic nation is utterly unconstrained by consequences, exercising the reverse Midas touch and destroying most everything in its way.

Today Obama administration retreads are in power, mainly implementing Trump administration policies. The result is bipartisan folly. The US again has turned the Europeans into craven security dependents, despite their contrary protestations; assumed America’s traditional position of sycophantic submission to the Saudis and Israelis while threatening war against Iran; and raised military tensions with China, challenging red lines that could result in a full-scale war with the world’s second most powerful nation.

Although danger seemingly lurks everywhere, today, Taiwan is the most combustible international issue facing America.

Pelosi’s recent visit reflects irresponsible personal vanity. Unlikely to remain speaker after the November election, which is expected to deliver a Republican majority, she wants to play global stateswoman and receive praise from adoring acolytes around the world before her power dissipates. The Taiwanese government welcomed her—it could hardly do otherwise—but local misgivings were significant. Locals realized that they would pay a high price for her political vanity.

Of course, she posed as defender of the oppressed and savior of the threatened, presenting her visit as a show of US support for Taiwan. Apparently, she imagined that her presence would act as a magical talisman, perhaps even making her a patron saint of sorts, protecting the island state, which is not formally recognized by America. After all, the superstitious ChiComs would not dare act against a land she has visited. Right?

In fact, Taiwan did not face immediate assault. Beijing had no present plans for invasion and will not create a military crisis without careful planning and, more important, compelling circumstances. Nor was there ever a chance of interdicting let alone downing her plane: if the Chinese leadership chooses war, it will do so on its terms, not those of a vainglorious, likely lame duck American politician.

Although Washington officials have trouble imaging their actions having consequences—after all, the cost is usually borne by others—the self-centered and short-sighted Pelosi trip will have impacts, both short- and long-term. The immediate is to chill US-China relations and intensify PRC pressure on Taipei.

For instance, Beijing responded by cutting back bilateral contacts with the US in a number of areas. Reported PBS: “On Friday, China’s Foreign Ministry said dialogue between U.S. and Chinese regional commanders and defense department heads would be canceled, along with talks on military maritime safety. Cooperation on returning illegal immigrants, criminal investigations, transnational crime, illegal drugs and climate change will be suspended, the ministry said.”

While none of these talks is vital, and some might eventually be revived, China’s decision presages a potentially permanent downgrade in US-PRC relations. This would minimize the good that might be accomplished from bilateral cooperation and exacerbate problems and disagreements, with ill will suffusing even the most minor controversies. Given a relationship already so fraught with disagreement and hostility, the new normal seems likely to lower the threshold for diplomatic breakdown, violent confrontation, and even war.

Beijing’s changing approach to Taiwan could prove even more dangerous. Americans who imagine the issue is peripheral ignore the island’s complicated history and role as Chinese nationalistic totem. Belief that Taiwan is properly part of China is as close to unanimous as one can imagine, running from masters of Zhongnanhai to students in college classrooms. Indeed, social media commentary on Pelosi’s visit included calls to shoot down her plane.

US-China Naval War

Image of F-35 at sea. Image Credit: US Navy Flickr.

Nor is Beijing’s choice simply invasion or not. The PRC has manifold means to pressure the island state. Invasion is a last resort, almost desperation measure, to be adopted if everything else has failed. There are a multitude of interim steps, which are likely to be activated in the coming days.

For instance, the Pelosi visit triggered a veritable ocean blockade, with live-fire exercises encircling Taiwan. China has never acted this close to the main island, coming within the standard 12-mile territorial waters for any nation. These activities offer preparation for a possible formal blockade. Beijing also imposed some trade restrictions—minor, but, again, a potential test for more significant concerted future action. Willingness to tolerate any form of separate international identity for Taiwan is likely to disappear, with even greater effort applied to flip the baker’s dozen small nations, plus the Vatican, that still recognize Taiwan, aka the Republic of China.

Of greatest concern, China is likely to permanently raise the military temperature in the strait. There will be more aerial intrusions, naval maneuvers, and missile tests. The purpose will be to simultaneously disrupt Taiwanese life and convince the Taipei government that it would be better to negotiate than resist. The US cannot easily respond. Operating more than 7000 miles from home, and only about 100 miles from the PRC, the American military will aways be at a disadvantage, especially if local allies, most importantly Japan and South Korea, seek to mitigate their risks. Today the latter two might talk big regarding possible future contingencies. That does not mean they will confront China tomorrow.

And Beijing could do more. Regularly holding military exercises and disrupting traffic to Taiwan would assert the PRC’s territorial claim, punish the Taiwanese for their US connections, and embarrass the US, unless Washington proved willing to stage a military confrontation with no likely positive outcome. If the US did act, how far would it go in a military game of chicken so close to China?

Pelosi’s PR theater will have additional, longer-term consequences. Allied states, having lived through the disastrous Bush II and bizarre Trump administrations, are highly sensitive to Washington’s extended bouts of arrogance, irresponsibility, and incompetence. The Biden administration’s addition to the list will discourage allied and friendly states from signing on with the US in future anti-China programs, given concern over what other surprises Washington might have in store.

F-22

An F-22 Raptor from Tyndall Air Force Base prepares to land at MacDill AFB for AirFest 2016, March 18, 2016. The F-22 was set up as a static display for visitors to get an up-close look at the world’s best air dominance fighter. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Cody R. Miller/Released)

Pelosi’s escapade comes when the Chinese were giving Americans a diplomatic opening. For instance, there is increasing Asian concern over PRC truculence. So-called Wolf Warrior Diplomacy has damaged relations with Australia and other governments. South Korea has taken tentative steps toward cooperating with both the Quad and NATO. Tokyo has begun speaking of its security interest in a peaceful Taiwan Strait.

However, risking military confrontation with the PRC, which would turn their nations into wartime targets, would be a dramatic escalation. In considering such a risky course, none of these nations will support what appears to be a gratuitously inflammatory course, which offers no positive benefits. Yet again the US appears determined to demonstrate that it cannot be trusted to act responsibly.

Moreover, the Pelosi escapade likely has changed Beijing’s assessment of Taipei. Chinese attitude toward any attempt to promote Taiwanese independence or separatism long has been neuralgic. The PRC increasingly sees the US changing the status quo, which includes Washington’s commitment to the “one China policy.”

The Trump administration took steps to promote Taipei’s unique international identity. Top policymakers such as Trump’s national security adviser (John Bolton) and secretary of state (Mike Pompeo) now advocate diplomatic re-recognition of Taiwan. President Biden has thrice said the US would defend Taiwan, statements that his aides’ subsequent disavowals could not erase. America’s top legislative official, second in line for the presidency, has just visited, appearing to conduct official business in Taipei.

As a result, China is likely to prepare its coercive options, diplomatic, economic, and military, more seriously. As well as speed plans to force reunification. Rather than dissuade the PRC from acting, Pelosi almost certainly has accelerated what is likely to become a political and economic crisis, and which could easily turn into a military crisis. Washington cannot expect Beijing to back down: Taiwan matters far more to China, its people as well as leaders, than America. The PRC consequently will spend and risk much more. The scary outcome could be the first largescale war between two nuclear powers, with the ever-present threat of nuclear escalation.

Some military action is even possible in the near future. The most vulnerable territorial targets would be Matsu and Kinmen (historically Quemoy) Islands, which lie just a couple miles off China’s coast. These small islands were the subject of artillery duels during the Cold War. When I visited Taiwan in the mid-1980s Kinmen was still little more than a military outpost, dominated by Taipei’s armed forces which were expected to hold off the PRC hordes. However, that changed as Chinese-Taiwanese relations warmed. Today ferries run regularly from the Mainland to Kinmen. Beijing could shut down the civilian traffic and seize the indefensible islands. Would Washington go to war with the PRC in an attempt to retake them?

A Chinese attack still seems unlikely. It would result in bloodshed, though not nearly as much as attacking the main island. It would dramatically signal Beijing’s impatience without suffering the consequences from launching a full-scale attack. Who among China’s critics would be willing to put their people’s lives on the line and intervene militarily to recover relatively insignificant islands? Who would put their financial probity on the line and cut off economic ties with the PRC, as was done against Russia? The world likely would just watch.

NATO Military Drills

PACIFIC OCEAN (July 30, 2009) During exercise Stellar Avenger, the Aegis-class destroyer USS Hopper (DDG 70) launches a standard missile (SM) 3 Blk IA, successfully intercepting a sub-scale short range ballistic missile, launched from the Kauai Test Facility, Pacific Missile Range Facility (PMRF), Barking Sans, Kauai. This was the 19th successful intercept in 23 at-sea firings, for the Aegis BMD program, including the February 2008 destruction of a malfunctioning satellite above the earthÕs atmosphere. (U.S. Navy photo/Released)

However, initiating violent military action would cross a red line. Regional tensions would explode. US-Chinese relations would crash. And countries throughout the region, from US allies to formally nonaligned states, such as India and Indonesia, would have to consider the necessity of speeding rearmament and cooperating with America. The world would become substantially more dangerous.

The best case today is a stand-down by both sides. However, the Pelosi visit evidently is shifting Beijing’s calculations, and not toward quiescence. A crisis in the Taiwan Strait was always possible. Now it looks likely.

Nancy Pelosi’s intentions ultimately are unimportant. Whether intending a final ego power trip or Taiwan pep rally, she has placed the island state in greater danger while undermining the foundation of America’s relationship with China. Her legacy could be to accelerate the deterioration of bilateral relations and smooth the path to another great war in the Asia-Pacific, this one between nuclear powers. Foolish and reckless barely suffice to describe her actions.

A 1945 Contributing Editor, Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, specializing in foreign policy and civil liberties. He worked as special assistant to President Ronald Reagan and editor of the political magazine Inquiry. He writes regularly for leading publications such as Fortune magazine, National Interest, the Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Times. Bandow speaks frequently at academic conferences, on college campuses, and to business groups. Bandow has been a regular commentator on ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC. He holds a JD from Stanford University.

Written By

Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, specializing in foreign policy and civil liberties. He worked as special assistant to President Ronald Reagan and editor of the political magazine Inquiry. He writes regularly for leading publications such as Fortune magazine, National Interest, the Wall Street Journal, and the Washington Times.

27 Comments

27 Comments

  1. pagar

    August 7, 2022 at 1:05 pm

    War between china and US is INEVITABLE, pelosi is just merely an actor in the curtain raiser show toward war.

    Pelosi visit is similar to the kabuki-class act of September 1931 and the later July 1937 incident that sparked an all-out avalanche, known occasionally in history as KABALA act. (kill all, burn all, loot all.)

    Today, US has warships, warplanes, spyplanes and subs are making numerous frequent visits to china coasts and china harbors, so pelosi is just annunder actor/ visitor.

    Xi jinping is currently seen overreacting, thus revealing he’s vulnerable to biting any bait dangled in front of him by actors like pelosi.

    Xi, the man who once boasted to everyone that he was solely responsible for bringing Disneyland to shanghai, is thus easily helping Biden and US deep state to prepare the path to war.Between US and china.

    Xi has totally failed to communicate or articulate to his people that today’s US is following exactly in the footsteps of Hirohito’s Japan of the thirties.

    Today, US has military forces on china’s frontdoor, tomorrow it will have hypersonic weaponry pointing through its front window as well. Then what. Too late.The Kabuki show’s main act comes full on.Final show.For china.

  2. M. N.

    August 7, 2022 at 1:41 pm

    In any case, China has to be confronted sooner or later.
    No point in playing strategic ambiguity forever, pretending that we can politely decline the confrontation.
    The CCP despises “the west” and dreams to see it in ruins. Much of China’s population is also brainwashed to that effect.
    There’s no easy way out. Especially not by hiding our heads in the sand.

  3. David Chang

    August 7, 2022 at 1:54 pm

    God bless people in the world.

    On nuclear weapons and foreign policy, America’s enemies are socialism parties, Russia Communist Party and China Communist Party.

    Pelosi don’t keep enough traditional military, and not keep enough nuclear weapons. She mocks foreign socialism party, but she also believes socialism.

    Moreover, on the game theory propose by John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern, they say that rational people seek maximum benefit and minimum expenditure, we cannot avoid zero-sum war.

    So we have to be humble and prepare enough weapons and training hard, but should not mock enemy.

    A Navy officer testify in hearing that the difficult strategy is draw.

    We should agree that America is not Roman Empire.

    God bless America.

  4. HAT451

    August 7, 2022 at 2:36 pm

    To answer the question posed in the title of the article. YES! But it was not by going to Taiwan, it was by her for decades as a member of Congress undermining and underfunding our military.

    Like a broken clock which shows the correct time twice per day, the time was right to reinforce our commitment to great ally of the USA via an official visit. Speaker Pelosi, as the third in line to the president has the right make an official visit to any country in the world, and at the same time China does not have the right tell our politicians when, where, and whom they can visit. In this case, Speaker Pelosi’s visit to China showed strength.

    China and the USA have been collation course for years, mostly arising from the difference of our political philosophies. The current trend is an intensification of this conflict bringing us closer to war. One of the accelerants of this conflict is the USA abandoning President Ronald Regan’s foreign policy of “Peace Through Strength”. We do not want war, but if China perceives as weak, it may bring war to us.

  5. Eric-ji

    August 7, 2022 at 4:36 pm

    In no way was Pelosi’s visit “undermining the foundation of America’s relationship with China”. Her visit DID underscore the lack of any solid foundation for Sino/US relations. The example of China’s treatment of Hong Kong is the key element here. China wants that fate for Taiwan, few others do. China’s goal is similar to Japan’s pre-wwii. Confront it now or later. Don’t be timid.

  6. Scottfs

    August 7, 2022 at 4:50 pm

    The author is a libertarian, one who seeks an absence of international engagement. Keep that in mind.

    Look, the Chinese are well aware of the Kabuki theater of the Biden administration. No one takes them seriously.

    In a larger context, though, the nascent steps Trump took to wean America from utter dependence on foreigner purveyors of vital goods must end, and that includes computer chips from Taiwan. We see stumbling uncoordinated efforts by Congress towards that goal (a centerpiece of the Trump administration, ironically and never to be acknowledged).

    America’s strength for decades been its industrial capability, one that won WWII. We no longer enjoy that edge.

    We must slowly, but inexorably, withdraw from trade with our adversaries, especially China. We must seek some pretense to withdraw Most Favored Nation Status from China, which is our right.

    Never again must we put ourselves in such a vulnerable position.

  7. GhostTomahawk

    August 7, 2022 at 5:18 pm

    Democrats are desperate for a narrative change. They want to look tough eventhough everyone views them as weak and ill prepared. The presidency is widely regarded now as a vacant office. Between Bidens creepy whispers and spontaneous fits of misplaced outrage he single handedly has affirmed its those in the shadows that are running our govt. That’s why Pelosi was willing to go to Taiwan. Biden isn’t in control. The world knows.

    Are we going to war with China? No. China needs the US. We are going to buy ask their solar panels and windmills. The green exhibit goes thru China 100%. War isn’t happening. This is a false flag event to change the narrative from .

  8. GhostTomahawk

    August 7, 2022 at 5:29 pm

    Democrats are desperate for a narrative change. They want to look tough eventhough everyone views them as weak and ill prepared. The presidency is widely regarded now as a vacant office. Between Bidens creepy whispers and spontaneous fits of misplaced outrage he single handedly has affirmed its those in the shadows that are running our govt. That’s why Pelosi was willing to go to Taiwan. Biden isn’t in control. The world knows.

    Are we going to war with China? No. China needs the US. We are going to buy all their solar panels and windmills. The green economy goes thru China 100%. War isn’t happening. This is a false flag event to change the narrative from .

  9. from Russia with love

    August 7, 2022 at 5:30 pm

    in this story there is one unpleasant moment … for the United States. it is the US that is critically dependent on supplies from China, not China on supplies from the US.
    Since Taiwan, according to all international norms and laws, is the territory of China, China can conduct exercises around Taiwan indefinitely, ensuring the blockade of the island. And all this without violating international laws. thus China will end this autonomy without won. Nancy Pilosi’s visit leads to the worst-case scenario for the US – chip maker #2 takes full control of chip maker #1.
    PS
    I don’t understand those who hope for some kind of US dominance in the event of receiving hypersonic weapons. China and Russia already have hypersonic weapons, they are already being produced on an industrial scale and have been put into service. Well, has Uncle Sam already bent over and taken off his pants to get f*cked?

  10. Tomb

    August 7, 2022 at 5:41 pm

    Your neighbor tells you to never go to the drug store.
    You ignore the neighbor and do go to the drugstore.
    Who is the arrogant one ?

  11. Error402

    August 7, 2022 at 8:05 pm

    Did Nancy pelosi put US and China on a path to war? No, the path was already laid long ago by the nation’s militarized foreign policy.

    In 1999, the Cox report laid out a series of accusations or fingerpointing against china, the kind not dissimilar to the ones Japan 100 years ago leveled at china in the infamous 21 demands.

    But then came 9/11 and China was handed a fortuitous reprieve. By time Obama was around in white house, again equally ominous accusations made the rounds but were deflated by Edward Snowden.

    Today, Biden and blinken do same routine with sideshows like warship sailby and sanctions lighting up the show or drama, which all have nothing to do with pelosi.

    Still, pelosi was an unneeded distraction, merely revealing real intentions of Washington.

    What are those intentions.They are of exact same type that Obama and NATO handed to gadaffi.Something to do with ‘viagra’ or viagro or whatever. Didn’t matter much then, doesn’t matter much now.

  12. cobo

    August 7, 2022 at 8:37 pm

    First decent thing she has done in a too long career – f China

  13. Commentar

    August 7, 2022 at 8:56 pm

    US military admirals, generals and analysts predict a war by 2028, a date that somewhat closely coincides with the expected introduction of sentinel (lgm-35).

    Thus, the WRITING IS ALREADY ON THE WALL, for those with eyes to see.

    By 2028, Army long-range fires in the western Pacific could include Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) with hitting range exceeding 600 km. Never mind sentinel or hypersonic rockets.

    Thus, by 2028, or perhaps maybe earlier, china could be facing a double-barrel Biden recommended shotgun, in the form of Army long-range fires and a Navy ford carrier & USS anerica amphibious force bursting with stealth fighters and stealth drones.

    Thus, serious homework is very urgently needed now, homework on how to short circuit the twin threats of stealth attack jets and long-range hypersonic fire.The b-21 raider is expected to be by then also based nearby, in Australia or in one of the nearby minion countries.

  14. Ben Leucking

    August 7, 2022 at 10:26 pm

    Garbage, click bait article.
    The opposite of Bandow’s opening paragraph can also be stated:
    “The attitude of CHINA’s CCP is simple: THEY are masters of the universe, essential and powerful, and must be obeyed. Everyone on earth must submit to THEIR majestic and supreme greatness.”

    If China ever invades Taiwan, Pelosi’s visit will have had no role in their decision.

  15. Arash P

    August 7, 2022 at 10:57 pm

    Look at all these couch generals in the comment section.

    Ask yourself: Are you willing to die for Taiwan?
    Because there are millions of Chinese who are!

  16. TheDon

    August 7, 2022 at 11:12 pm

    2 losers in such a war.
    One big
    Many lives.

  17. David Chang

    August 8, 2022 at 12:24 am

    In addition, many China experts in the United States misjudge the situation.

    They promote the May 4th Movement to people in one-China, and China experts believe that people can change China government. But the May 4th Movement is one of the reasons that China people believe socialism and help Communist Party to occupy mainland China and Taiwan.

    With socialism against foreign socialism parties, so Democratic party always be wrong and incites war. But Democratic party cut much defense budget by reasons of socialism.

    Mr. Bandow say an important fact. China experts misjudged not only the situation in People’s Republic of China, but also the situation in Republic of China.

    People of Afghan mentioned by Mr. Davis are like People in the Republic of China. Most people don’t care about other people, but care about themselves only.

    So the operation of U.S. military in Western Pacific are like Saigon in 1975 and Afghan in 2010. And we must think about the original thought of Abraham Accords in order to avoid total war.

    God bless America.

  18. from Russia with love

    August 8, 2022 at 3:02 am

    “Your neighbor tells you to never go to the drug store.
    You ignore the neighbor and do go to the drugstore.
    Who is the arrogant one?”
    the situation looks a bit different.
    your neighbor tells you to stop breaking into his house and shitting in his closet.
    you are ignoring your neighbor’s demands.
    in the end, your neighbor will take a shotgun and blow your head off when you once again climb into his house.

  19. Tom

    August 8, 2022 at 8:24 am

    As someone who actually lived in the PRC, I am getting really tired of all this PRC-US hysteria.

    I tried to respond to a comment in the thread about how the “US is dependent upon China.”

    Nothing is further from the truth.

    The PRC is a third world country. Period. Their military, in the event of a conflict, will massively underperform just as the Russian one has in the Ukraine.

    Next the PRC, as it currently exists, only functions because of globalism. They cannot secure their waterways, they lack a blue water Navy, and import almost all of their petroleum and fertilizers (absent phosphates).

    In the event of a PRC-US war, the only thing the US needs to do is cut the supply of oil coming out of the Middle East and the PRC collapses inside two months.

    The PRC is a problem economically to the US. The problem was created by the same anti-Western elites within Western societies that are also pushing the PRC-US “war is a disaster” narrative.

    If you want to war with the PRC, then war with them. It’ll be a one-sided ass-kicking as it always is when Asian and Western militaries fight.

    Of course, the same people talking about how horrible this is will be just as disappointed as they were when the Soviet Union fell.

  20. Anybody

    August 8, 2022 at 9:54 am

    Heartening to read the comments here.

    Confrontation with China is inevitable. No way around that. Globalization where everybody trades and lives happily after has completely failed. Just look at Russia. This Pelosi deal is nothing but China picking the confrontational point.

    Military confrontation as well as trade confrontation are nothing more than simple cultural value confrontations. Let the world separation into blocks begin. The quicker the better.

  21. Deserttrek

    August 8, 2022 at 10:15 am

    There is no danger of war with China unless the USA starts it.
    Regardless of title, no politician, especially during these times, should be junketing. The real reason of her trip was to check on her investments and make money for her and her supporters.
    The USA and The People , are of no concern to the DC establishment.

  22. NCDrummerMan

    August 8, 2022 at 11:17 am

    China and Russia have been pushing every established boundary of peace and are attempting to intimidate the rest of the world to stand down and let them start whatever war they want without consequence. At this point the US as well as the rest of the world have no choice but to stand up to these threats, call their bluff, show that their threats won’t influence our policies. If we don’t, then we basically send the message that China can start whatever war it wants and they won’t have a consequence for it.

  23. Jeff

    August 8, 2022 at 12:50 pm

    The author appears to be a PRC supporter. Anyone with any sense has known for years that Taiwan has been on China’s want list. Yes, I am willing to die on that hill. If China takes over Taiwan it will have almost complete control of computer chips and the world will have to bow to them.

  24. Jack

    August 8, 2022 at 1:16 pm

    We need to build 10 more Boomer Submarines immediately

  25. Billy Defish

    August 8, 2022 at 7:10 pm

    Pelosi is a despicable woman she has done nothing but threaten the UK a supposed friend, while senile Biden I want to be Oirish (But is English really) does the same, both ignorant of the detail of the good Friday agreement, they listen to dissident republicans (Terrorists if you like). Shame on the pair of them.

  26. from Russia with love

    August 9, 2022 at 4:18 am

    @Tom
    If you doubt the dependence of the US on China, then look at the trade turnover between the US and China. 80% of it belongs to China and only 20% to the USA.
    look at the structure of this turnover. China supplies high value-added goods to the US – microelectronics, composites, parts for industrial equipment. also supplies steel and rolled products. what does the US supply to China? soy, pork and whiskey. China will be able to replace supplies from the US, the US has nothing to replace supplies from China.

    you write that China is dependent on the supply of oil and fertilizers and cannot protect its water communications? This is at least a controversial statement without any basis. What do you think China is an island? Have you skipped all your geography classes? China has a land border with Russia, which is one of the largest suppliers of hydrocarbons and the largest supplier of fertilizers.

    you write that all the US needs is to stop oil supplies to China from the Middle East? from what? from the AOE that sleepy Joe went to and screwed up so much that he was denied entry to the AOE? or maybe you want to persuade Iran not to supply oil to China? funny😂 the US is now much more likely to be left without Middle Eastern oil than China. and again, with pain, remember the land border with Russia😉

    you write something about a third world country? you live in a third world country where the level of specialists has fallen so low that they are not even able to make a normal section for comments under the article and link comments and replies to these comments🤦‍♂️

    but I like your idea of ​​a US war against China 😎👍 I will be pleased to watch the enchanting fall of the “golden billion” into the mud, to the very bottom.😉

  27. Jacksonian Libertarian

    August 9, 2022 at 9:52 am

    “Captains should study tactics, but Generals must study logistics.”

    The US and allies need to arm the 1st island chain surrounding the China sea in order to impose a strategic blockade on China. Emplacing the hardware (anti-ship and aircraft missiles) and training to sweep the sea free of China’s ships and aircraft, confiscate all merchant ships and their cargos as prizes, and triple damages fines on those doing business with China.

    This would raise the risk of doing business with China, while forcing recognition on China of their weak strategic position (98% of China’s trade, and 40% of their GDP).

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