Does Putin Have a Clue in Ukraine? The war in Ukraine is about to enter 2023. On the 311th day of the war, the Russian leadership continues to pursue a maximalist strategy that doesn’t reflect the current situation on the battlefield.
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The Russian Casualties in Ukraine
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Saturday, Ukrainian forces have killed approximately 105960 Russian troops (and wounded approximately twice to thrice that number).
Equipment destroyed includes: 283 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets, 269 attack and transport helicopters, 3,029 tanks, 2,016 artillery pieces, 6,075 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 423 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 16 boats and cutters, 4,707 vehicles and fuel tanks, 213 anti-aircraft batteries, 1,746 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 180 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 711 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
War to the End?
Meanwhile, the Russian leadership continues to show that it is willing to take the war to the end, even if that means that it will last several more months and even years.
In an interview on December 27, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov restated Moscow’s maximalist goals in Ukraine. Lavrov said that the Kremlin would continue to pursue a military solution to the war until Ukraine concedes to the Russian demands. As of now, the Kremlin demands the “demilitarization and denazification” of Ukraine. In a sense, Russian President Vladimir Putin wants Ukraine to give up its government and ability to defend itself.
Ukraine, of course, has no desire to do so, especially now that it has the strategic advantage and is winning on the battlefield. And so, it does seem likely that the war will drag on until one or both sides have reached a point where peace is the more favorable option.
Missile Strikes and the Russian Strategy
Since early October, the Russian military has been conducting a large-scale missile strike against Ukrainian urban centers and critical infrastructure approximately every seven to ten days.
Usually, the Russian military will launch its ballistic and cruise missiles in response to a Ukrainian military success on the ground or a Ukrainian strike inside Russia.
“Russia is almost certainly following this approach in an attempt to overwhelm Ukrainian air defences,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the war.
In about 12 weeks, Russia has launched more than 1,000 ballistic and cruise missiles against Ukraine.
“However, there is a realistic possibility that Russia will break this pattern to strike again in the coming days in an effort to undermine the morale of the Ukrainian population over the new year holiday period,” the British Military Intelligence added.
Although the Russian missile and drone strikes hit civilian infrastructure and kill innocent people, including children, women, and the elderly, Moscow has been focusing on the Ukrainian power distribution network.
By disrupting, degrading, and destroying the Ukrainian power grid, Moscow wants to increase the suffering of the Ukrainian people to the maximum in an attempt to force the Ukrainian government to make concessions in possible negotiations.
However, this is very unlikely to happen for the time being. In a devastating majority, the Ukrainian people united behind their government and military and wished to pursue the war until the end and when the last Russian soldier has left the country.
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Expert Biography: A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
