Can Nikki Haley win the 2024 GOP nomination?
Probably not.
Despite being a prominent conservative with respected credentials, Haley will be chasing the nomination from behind, for Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are far and away the two favorites at the moment.
Polling and booking both support the idea that Haley is a long shot.
But longshots have won before.
Jeb Bush was supposed to win the 2016 GOP primary.
Hillary Clinton was supposed to win the 2016 general election.
Haley winning the 2024 GOP primary isn’t any crazier than Trump winning the 2016 primary.
Will Nikki Haley challenge her former boss?
To date, no one has agreed to run against Trump. Nikki Haley, who Trump appointed as his UN ambassador, is expected to be the first on February 15th.
As Trump told reporters, Haley called him to talk about a 2024 run. Trump said his advice was to “go by your heart if you want to run.”
That doesn’t sound like a very Trumpian response but he does seem to have a cordial relationship with Haley. We’ll see if that cordiality endures on the campaign trail.
The Challenges Ahead
Haley will have ground to make up. A Morning Consult poll found that Haley is the fourth most popular GOP presidential candidate right now.
Leading that pack is Trump, with 48 percent of respondents. Ron DeSantis earned second place with 31 percent.
Trump and DeSantis are far ahead of the number three candidate, Mike Pence with 8 percent, and the number four candidate, Haley with 3 percent
. The survey also gauged favorable impressions. Haley had left a favorable impression with 44 percent of voters. Trump and DeSantis earned 76 percent and 73 percent respectively.
A McLaughlin & Associates poll also found that Haley enjoyed backing from just 3 percent of “Republican primary voters.” Again, Haley was fourth.
But British booking website Bet365 has Haley in third place. The odds? 12 to 1 that Haley is the next GOP presidential candidate.
Trump on the other hand leads the way with 5 to 4 odds; DeSantis was second with 11 to 8 odds. Pence lagged behind in fourth at 22 to 1 odds.
Haley forging ahead despite the odds
The early numbers do not seem to have phased Haley, who tweeted a video last month with the caption: “it’s time for a new generation to lead.”
In the video, Haley said that “the survival of America matters, and it’s bigger than one person, and when you’re looking at the future of America I think it’s time for new generational change. I don’t think you need to be 80 years old to go be a leader in DC, I think we need a young generation to come in, step up, and really start fixing things.”
Right, so clearly a knock at Trump, who is in his late 70s – and Biden, who is 80. And an indirect self-endorsement (Haley is 51).
Haley will run, but she’s unlikely to generate much support. And accordingly, Haley will be pressured to drop out sooner rather than later for fear that a splintered GOP primary will allow Trump to cruise to another nomination.
Instead, the GOP is hoping to rally around one Trump-alternative – and at the moment, the most likely alternative is Ron DeSantis.
But like I said, weirder things have happened than Haley winning the nomination.
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Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison lives in Oregon and listens to Dokken.
