Joe Biden Can Still Win in 2024: Standing defiantly at the dais in the United States House of Representatives, slurring and awkwardly whispering through his State of the Union Address, President Joe Biden managed to do something his critics keep assuming that he can’t: managing incredibly low expectations.
In so doing, Biden has shown why he has been in the political game for so long—and why he has risen to the top of the dogpile.
Biden was elected in 2020 because he was seen as the “anti-Trump.” Whereas in 2016, the American people were looking for an outsider to disrupt the stilted political system that had stopped serving the American people, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the American people were looking for calm and stability—two things that President Donald Trump was incapable of delivering to them.
So what happens in 2024? Can Joe Biden win a second term?
Donald Trump the Unstable
American voters were annoyed with Trump’s constant rage-tweeting; they became aggravated that Trump’s presidency was so unstable, what with the constant revolving door of personnel and the continual investigations and spats with the media.
Before 2020, voters had tolerated Trump’s eccentricities because the economy was doing well, once COVID-19 happened the country had been locked down, the economy went into freefall. Trump’s one silver bullet in the 2020 election—the economy’s strength—went away virtually overnight once the pandemic began in earnest in the United States. With that advantage gone, it became a personality contest between the mad fireball Donald Trump and “Sleepy” Joe Biden.
In its moment of crisis, the Americans chose the serenity of sleepiness to the radical uncertainty of rage.
Many pundits today believe that Joe Biden is unelectable. And while I have been a fierce critic of the president, I also recognize that most Americans are not paying attention to politics the way that I do. In fact, that inattentiveness to politics is one of the primary reasons why Biden keeps making it through when he should not.
Republicans insist that Biden is the next Jimmy Carter. That may be.
But, do most voters believe this?
Joe Biden is the Democratic Party’s Gerald Ford
Judging from the way that the 2022 Midterm Elections played out, that doesn’t seem to be the case.
Actually, most voters seem more skeptical about Trump and his rising “MAGA” base within the Republican Party than they do with Joe Biden’s sclerotic and listless presidency. Far from being Jimmy Carter, then, most Americans likely view Biden as a Democratic Party version of former President Gerald R. Ford.
Ford was the successor to Richard M. Nixon, who infamously resigned after he was accused of being involved in the Watergate burglary.
In the aftermath of Nixon’s presidency, the Legislative Branch worked assiduously to limit the power of the executive branch—making the Ford presidency one of the weakest in American history. Ford was viewed by his own party as merely a placeholder for someone more conservative and more politically dynamic. This is precisely how many Democrats view Biden today.
Still, that doesn’t mean that Biden will automatically lose.
The Republicans assuming this are making a dangerous and inaccurate calculation. After all, mere polarization alone means that the Democratic Party’s voters will stand by their man no matter what and most Republican voters will oppose him.
Biden’s Record (On Paper)
Whatever the media claims about Biden, it’s important to note that at least on paper, his has been a successful presidency in terms of bipartisan legislation passed. Historians will likely remember him as one of the most effective legislative presidents in American history, given the sheer volume of bills he’s gotten passed since taking office.
Many Americans (myself included) were critical of Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal. Yet, most Americans approved of Biden’s withdrawal (perhaps not the style of the exit but the idea that we needed to leave Afghanistan after 20 years of endless war).
The economy, while not great, has also not totally collapsed. This only works in Biden’s favor if someone like Donald Trump is the Republican nominee running against Biden in 2024. If 2024 is a rematch of 2020, then Trump and the Republicans may be in for it. Because the same moderate voters—many of the so-called “Biden Republicans”—who came out to vote for Biden over Trump in 2020 may do so again.
It isn’t that most voters think Biden is the greatest president or wouldn’t replace him, it’s just that there are no viable alternatives in their eyes. Trump is too unstable and they’d rather the serenity of Biden’s senile stability rather than Trump’s braggadocio.
The State of the Union
Judging from Biden’s recent State of the Union address, he will continue to be competitive.
His speech was workmanlike and not very memorable. What was important, though, was the fact that Biden advocated for almost Trump-like economic nationalist policies. Most Americans liked what they had heard that evening (while the Republicans booed Biden’s calls to save Social Security, a wildly popular social program aimed at helping the elderly).
Even many Trump-supporting pundits noted how Biden’s speech resonated with them and their economic agenda (which deviates from the low-tax-and-low-regulation Republican Party economic orthodoxy). Further, Joe Biden is very much a man for his time. Whereas in 2001, he was described by The Guardian as being on the fringes of the Democratic Party, just 20 years later, he’s the president. This is less because Joe Biden has changed and more because the American electorate has clearly shifted to the Left.
Alas, the Republican Party’s preferred programs will ring less and less true the closer we get to the 2030s.
Bottom line: the Republicans are fools for underestimating Joe Biden. For all his faults, he has consistently upstaged them. Rather than chortling on about how Biden is Jimmy Carter 2.0, Republicans should be honing meaningful attacks on Biden’s actual record and other aspects of the Biden presidency so as to weaken and reduce Biden’s stature in public—making it possible for the Right to get a clearer shot at him. As it stands, however, Biden very well may get reelected because the Republican Party is living in the past.
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Brandon J. Weichert is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who recently became a writer for 19FortyFive.com. Weichert is a contributor at The Washington Times, as well as a contributing editor at American Greatness and the Asia Times. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower (Republic Book Publishers), The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy (March 28), and Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life (May 16). Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Charles Griep
March 2, 2023 at 12:26 pm
shouldnt joe biden be replaced by jill biden in your article?
Andreas Brecht
March 2, 2023 at 1:38 pm
Weve4ybody knows that Biden is dumber than a rock and that the only way he can win in 2024 is massive fraud like in 2020
Mark
March 2, 2023 at 2:00 pm
Andeas Brecht and others like him will be exhibit A in 2024 as to how the far right has driven moderates to the Democrat Party.
Jim
March 2, 2023 at 2:10 pm
It’s not that Republicans underestimate Joe Biden, it’s that events are overwhelming Joe Biden.
Some of these events are not of Joe Biden’s making.
But some are… and his administration should be held responsible & accountable to the American People.
Nobody should underestimate anybody in this political contest.
The waters are choppy for everybody… there are no easy political pathways… to election in 2024.
And, this is the making of both political parties… the elite among them.
Biden is a symptom, not the cause of many of the travails facing our nation… and there are many.
But the buck stops @ the president’s desk.
Does he want to defend his record to the American people?
cobo
March 2, 2023 at 3:16 pm
No need to worry about big guy.
He’s been predicted to have a serious illness this year that’s highly possible to lead him to a certain spot of dirt at Arlington.
Bye-bye 2024.
GhostTomahawk
March 2, 2023 at 5:57 pm
Republicans aren’t underestimating Joe Biden. They’re overestimating the American peoples ability to pull their collective heads out of their rear ends.
Tig Oglesby
March 2, 2023 at 7:01 pm
Your writing is all over the place. Biden is listless in one paragraph and, on paper, one of the most effective presidents (bi-partisan speaking) in another. Biden is somehow a fringe far lefty? Say’s nobody. At any rate, I appreciate a guy who criticizes leadership. That said, none of your pieces bother reminding the readers that Trump was central to that whole Jan 6 thingy, which MIGHT be a reason most people puke in their mouths when they think of his presidency and thus reject him. What’s more, your criticism of guys like Buttigieg and his, as you say, “sort of” veteran status is equally true about his Direct-Commission counterpart on the right, Mr Personality- Desantis. Usually I find any mocking of a guys service to his country as something only a non-serving twit would do, but we can all dole it out equally now, can’t we?
GhostTomahawk
March 4, 2023 at 1:30 am
@mark
People aren’t going to the democrats. Moderates and minorities are going the other direction.
There is a reason why the democrats way the covid emergency to continue… lots of “anomalies” in voting. Nevada Arizona and Georgia aren’t blue states without mail in ballots
Steven Naslund
March 4, 2023 at 7:27 am
The real problem today is that it does not actually matter much who the Democrats nominate. They are dominated by such group think that if they nominated Mickey Mouse, he would get all the Democrats votes. Republicans somewhat to their detriment are much more independent thinkers and tend to fragment their voting base. I think “undecided voters” is a big myth. All that matters is which party can energize their voters. How could you possibly be undecided with the parties being polar opposites? Anyone that undecided probably does not care to decide. Donald Trump’s problem is that he energizes BOTH sides to vote so Biden does not even have to run a campaign. The vote was NOT Trump, it wasnt we love Joe. Just look at the Fetterman election to see this. It is becoming a completely party line game.
Webej
March 5, 2023 at 8:37 pm
You make it sound like Joe Biden is a thing, someone who can plan and calculate strategies. It is obvious to everyone that he follows cues & cards … all policy and strategy decisions are made by an unseen partisan cabal behind the curtain.
It gives your whole narrative a kind of unreal, surreal, unreal, weird kind of atmosphere, sort of Twin Peaks type thing, but different
geekpoet
March 6, 2023 at 4:51 am
This article is basically the writer trying to convince themselves that Biden isn’t a hot mess.