Is the GOP doomed in 2024 if they nominate Donald Trump? Even after one indictment, and possibly more of them to come, former President Donald Trump is the clear Republican frontrunner in 2024. But are the Republicans committing political suicide if they go with the ex-president again?
Donald Trump: What We Know
The Manhattan District Attorney’s office has already indicted former President Donald Trump, and more criminal charges may very well be coming, either from the special counsel’s office or the Fulton County District Attorney’s office in Georgia.
Trump may very well spend much of late 2023 and early 2024 traveling back and forth between the campaign trail and court appearances, a situation unprecedented in American political history.
Yet despite that, Trump has a huge lead in the polls. In the latest Morning Consult tracker, released last Monday — after the Manhattan indictment was announced, but before Trump had been arraigned in New York on Tuesday —the former president had 55 percent support in the crowded Republican field, compared to just 26 percent for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. No other candidate had more than single-digit support.
So clearly, especially after the indictment, Trump has the support of a majority of the Republican base. But does he have any support from the general electorate to return to the White House? That’s a tougher question for the ex-president.
A criminal conviction, of course, would make the election of Trump all but impossible. But even before that, a trial — sure to be one of the most high-profile in the nation’s history — would remind voters daily of uncommonly sleazy behavior on his part right when Trump is in the middle of running for president.
And besides, Trump has been at the center of the Republican Party’s identity ever since he started running for president in 2015. Since then, Trump won the election in 2016 without winning the popular vote. In 2018, Republicans lost the House in the midterm elections. In 2020 Trump lost the presidency, and in 2022, Republicans significantly underperformed expectations, failing to recapture the U.S. Senate.
In other words, Trump’s 2016 victory is starting to look less like a re-defining victory and more like a fluke, one that won’t be easily repeated.
GOP: A Toxic Political Brand?
This comes as there are increasing signs that the Republican brand is becoming toxic with more and more of the general electorate, last seen by a result last week in a Wisconsin Supreme Court election that flipped the majority of that body to the liberals on the court. According to an analysis by CNN’s Harry Enten, the two biggest reasons are the abortion issue and Trump.
“That result is just part of a larger story in which Democrats and Democratic-backed candidates across the nation have been performing better in elections this year than Joe Biden did in their states or districts in 2020. And it potentially portends well for Democrats’ 2024 fortunes,” Enten wrote.
In Wisconsin, Trump won narrowly in 2016, and Biden won by a similar margin in 2020, but the liberal judge, Janet Protasiewicz, won by more than either of them last week. It continues a trend of special elections of late in which Democratic candidates have outperformed Biden’s 2020 performance. And this happened even as Biden’s approval rating has remained well below 50 percent.
The abortion issue continues to be salient, and the Republicans have no clear answers that will appeal to the general electorate. Also, there’s been little-to-no indication that GOP attempts to run against “wokeness” have brought them any political success whatsoever.
“Trump remains the clear favorite for the GOP nomination for president, despite his indictment and continuing unpopularity among the general electorate. If those things don’t change going into 2024, Republicans may be in big trouble,” Enten wrote.
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Of course, many things could change between now and November of 2024, and it remains unclear who the Democrats will be running as their candidate in that general election. But as of now, it looks like the GOP could be in trouble if they go with Trump again.
Expertise and Experience
Stephen Silver is a Senior Editor for 19FortyFive. He is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.
