What should be worrisome for his campaign is that Donald Trump likely has the support he needs to win the Republican nomination, yet likely would lose in a general election.
At issue is that Trump is now unpopular with many voters, and his efforts to secure the base might only alienate others.
An NBC News poll from last month found that nearly 70% of GOP voters continue to stand behind the former president.
That should be seen as very good news for Trump now, but worrisome figures for the Republican Party down the line.
Securing 70% of a voting block is great, but in this case, it means that nearly one-third of registered Republicans might not be willing to give Donald Trump another chance in 2024.
It should be added that a majority of Americans would like to see a candidate besides Trump next year, whilst an even greater number of voters feel the same about President Joe Biden.
In other words, America can’t stand Donald Trump or Joe Biden, and 2024 is shaping up to be an election where voters will turn out to choose the lesser of two evils. That could be Trump’s race to lose.
Suburban Women – An Important Voting Block for Donald Trump
As TheHill.com reported on Monday, Trump faces a problem with suburban women. The Supreme Court, which now includes three justices who Trump nominated, infamously overturned Roe v. Wade. In addition, E. Jean Carroll’s lawsuit against Trump doesn’t bode, as he continues to mock his accuser. Trump doesn’t believe the jury’s verdict could deter women from voting for him.
“No, I don’t think so,” Trump said during last week’s Republican Town Hall, which was hosted by CNN.
However, his detractors think otherwise.
“It’s incredibly misogynistic and damaging, but it’s also old news,” Jennifer Horn, former chairwoman of the New Hampshire Republican State Committee and co-founder of the anti-Trump group the Lincoln Project, told TheHill.
“This is who Trump has always been, and the Republican Party has embraced it,” added Horn. “I think that he probably believes he can win the general election with the same behavior we saw the other night.”
Suburban women played a major role in securing Joe Biden’s victory in 2020, a fact that can’t be readily dismissed.
The Brookings Institution found that suburban counties and smaller metropolitan areas strongly contributed to Biden’s victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, as well as in Georgia.
Though it is true that white suburban women made a swing again, backing Republicans in Congress in the 2022 midterms, Trump-back candidates largely underperformed. The GOP is working to win back the suburbs, but it is increasingly apparent that Trump might not be the candidate to make it happen.
Trump continues to alienate groups, belittle individuals, and pick unnecessary fights. Some of this plays to the MAGA base, but he’ll need far wider support if he is serious about winning the general election. He is making the same mistake he made in 2016 – namely assuming the support is there.
As it now looks as if Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will formally announce in the coming days, support in the ‘burbs could shift to DeSantis and away from Trump.
That could make it a bit more challenging for Trump to even win the nomination.
Author Experience and Expertise
A Senior Editor for 19FortyFive, Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu.