The raging war in Ukraine has underscored the vitality of the Black Sea region. The shipping route works to secure geopolitical stability and the global economy, as starkly demonstrated by Russia’s blockade on Ukrainian grain shipments and the resultant impact on the global food supply.
To discuss this issue the Yorktown Institute held the Strategic Nexus: The Black Sea, Competition, and the Ukraine War conference.
Setting Up a Strategic Conference
The event, held in Washington, D.C. in late June, was co-sponsored by the Yorktown Institute and the Romania-based New Strategy Center. Yorktown Institute founder Dr. Seth Cropsey moderated the discussion.
Key Discussion Points
Among the salient points raised by Dr. Cropsey during his opening remarks was that absent of Ukraine, Russia is a normal power, *not* a great power, and Putin’s failure to defeat Ukraine thus far has “spoiled Russia’s coup de main.” The moderator also stressed that China remains a core supporter of Russia’s war effort, the country’s reticence about publicly backing the Kremlin notwithstanding, and that there is an intersection of Russian, Chinese, and Iranian interests – which starts to look like a new ‘Axis of Evil’. Moreover, Dr. Cropsey stated that the U.S. must turn to Romania as a stalwart Black Sea ally, and stressed that (1) NATO must help Romania maintain a Black Sea balance, and (2) the U.S. must articulate a meaningful and effective Black Sea policy with Romania at its heart.
Keynote speaker George Scutaru, CEO and co-founder of New Strategy Center, reaffirmed Dr. Cropsey’s point about the need for a long-term strategy dedicated to the Black Sea and Romania, noting that this is a clear-cut case of Democracy vs. Autocracy, and that the Black Sea matters because of resources such as grain and energy.
Regarding the energy variable, Scutaru highlighted the potential for Romania to undercut Russian energy supplier Gazprom. He also stated that Romania currently has a defense budget of $7 billion, 25 percent of which is allocated for new weapons acquisition.
Words from Ambassador Andrei Moraru, Ambassador of Romania to the United States offered a Black Sea perspective. The ambassador stated that Russia remains a threat to the rules-based international system and reaffirmed his country’s support for the Republic of Moldova as well as Finland’s recent entry into NATO.
Admiral Jonathan Greenert (USN, Ret.), former Chief of Naval Operations, framed his portion of the discussion of the Black Sea’s importance in terms of the “70-80-90 Rule.” This rule estimates that 70 percent of the Earth’s surface is covered with water, 80 percent of the world’s population lives along coastlines, and 90 percent of international trade crosses the ocean at some point. He added that besides Romania, “It’s about Turkey,” and how Turkey and Erdogan behave “is really the deal.”
Dr. Antonia Colibasanu, senior associate expert at New Strategy Center, reinforced an emphasis on turkey. In addition to seconding the importance of Turkey, dubbed the Black Sea a “geopolitical node” just like the South China Sea, and stressed the danger of such a geopolitical node turning into a flashpoint.
Q&A with Generals Vlad and Hadrian-Bondor
The 19FortyFive sat down with Romanian generals Major General Remus-Hadrian Bondor, chief of Strategic Planning Directorate, and Lieutenant General Gheorghiţă Vlad, Deputy Chief of the Defense Staff, Romanian Land Forces.
“What current capabilities are Russian Naval Spetsnaz and Russian naval infantry bringing to the fight, and what sort of special naval operations or naval infantry capability does Romania’s Navy have to counter this?”
MG Hadrian-Bondor responded, mentioning a Russian VDV brigade that was used in the southern area of operations, initially as a recon and later an assault force, ultimately wastefully. He added that Romania has a regiment of marines that has the main mission of controlling the Danube Delta; they are very knowledgeable about the terrain and able to counter any penetration attempts as well as conduct counter-amphibious operations.
LTG Vlad piggybacked onto this by mentioning a battalion with “naval strike missiles” and discussing Romania’s need to update its naval strategy, with not just a “big fleet” but also a “small fleet of fast boats” to better protect Romania’s interior waters.
Christian D. Orr is a former Air Force Security Forces officer, Federal law enforcement officer, and private military contractor (with assignments worked in Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kosovo, Japan, Germany, and the Pentagon). Chris holds a B.A. in International Relations from the University of Southern California (USC) and an M.A. in Intelligence Studies (concentration in Terrorism Studies) from American Military University (AMU). He has also been published in The Daily Torch and The Journal of Intelligence and Cyber Security. Last but not least, he is a Companion of the Order of the Naval Order of the United States (NOUS). In his spare time, he enjoys shooting, dining out, cigars, Irish and British pubs, travel, USC Trojans college football, and Washington DC professional sports. If you’d like to pick his brain in-person about his writings, chances are you’ll be able to find him at the Green Turtle Pasadena in Maryland on Friday nights, singing his favorite karaoke tunes.
