Former President Donald Trump, according to just about every poll taken of the Republican race in the last six months, has a huge lead in the Republican nomination contest for 2024.
While a dozen candidates are in the race, Trump has at least 50 percent in most recent polls.
Donald Trump: Fifty Percent and Fading
According to the latest Morning Consult tracking poll, released last Tuesday, Trump has 55 percent support, way ahead of second-place Ron DeSantis, with 20 percent.
Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is in third with 8 percent. Former Vice President Mike Pence is in fourth with 7 percent, followed by former Ambassador Nikki Haley with 4 percent and Sen. Tim Scott with 3 percent.
However, per a new Pew Research survey, Trump remains unpopular with the general public – and increasingly unpopular with Republicans.
“Trump remains broadly unpopular with the public: 63% of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of the former president, while 35% view him favorably. A year ago, Trump’s rating stood at 60% unfavorable,” the Pew survey said. “In the new survey, 66% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents have a very or mostly favorable opinion of Trump, while 32% have a very or mostly unfavorable view of him.”
Trump’s number with Republicans has dropped nine percent over the course of the last year. It’s unclear why — although it’s possible the multiple indictments have taken a toll.
In addition, 91 percent of Democrats view Donald Trump unfavorably.
There isn’t great news for top Democratic officials, either, including the president and vice president.
“Six-in-ten Americans hold a very or mostly unfavorable opinion of Biden, while 39% view him favorably. Biden is viewed slightly more negatively than he was a year ago, when 55% held an unfavorable opinion of him,” Pew said.
“Around six-in-ten Americans (59%) also view Vice President Kamala Harris unfavorably, while 36% express a favorable opinion of her. Views of Harris are more negative than they were last July, when 52% held an unfavorable opinion of her and 43% rated her favorably.”
As for House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, half of Americans have an unfavorable view. While a quarter of Americans view him favorably, a full 23 percent of those surveyed have never heard of the top Republican in the House.
With Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY), the Senate Majority Leader, also viewed unfavorably by 49 percent of respondents, it shows that every top political leader in the country is viewed unfavorably by more people than not.
Polls for Presidents
That said, more voters view Biden favorably (39 percent) than do Trump (35 percent). And with Biden and Trump both leading their party primaries by wide margins, it appears likely that the presidential election will feature a rematch between the last two presidents, who are both unpopular.
The most recent head-to-head polls have mostly either favored Biden, or been tied. The RealClearPolitics polling average has President Biden ahead by 0.5 points, and the president has led most recent polls, with the exception of the Harvard-Harris poll last week that had Trump leading by 5 points and was an apparent outlier. A Quinnipiac poll in mid-July had Biden winning by 5, also more than most, while Yahoo had Biden winning by 4 and Morning Consult by 2, in the most recent surveys. The most recent polls by Morning Consult and Economist/YouGov listed the race as tied.
One observer noted that, in that Harris poll, Trump’s lead has narrowed, as he was up by 7 percent in May and 6 percent in June.
Trump, however, has acted as though he is winning every poll, even using that as an argument that he should not be indicted.
“Do you think that A.G. Garland, and Deranged Jack Smith, understand that we are in the middle of a major political campaign for President of the United States?,” the ex-president said Sunday on Truth Social. “Have they looked at recent poll numbers? Why didn’t they bring these ridiculous charges years before – Why did they wait to bring them NOW – A virtually unheard of scenario? PROSECUTORIAL MISCONDUCT! ELECTION INTERFERENCE!”
Expertise and Experience
Stephen Silver is a Senior Editor for 19FortyFive. He is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.
From 19FortyFive
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