In the leadup to the 2024 election, an increasingly common take is that the Democrats are going to replace President Joe Biden on the ticket with California Governor Gavin Newsom.
The speculation makes sense. Biden is already the oldest person to ever serve as president, appears to be in physical/mental decline, and has struggled to gain traction in the polls. Newsom, meanwhile, is perceived as a current and future star of the Democratic Party.
But Biden out and Newsom in? For 2024? It’s not likely but here’s a rundown of the thinking.
Biden Out
Biden withdrawing from the 2024 election is the most plausible portion of the Biden Out-Newsome In scenario. Biden reportedly spent months deliberating whether to run again before ultimately agreeing to a reelection bid. But the circumstances that caused such intense deliberation haven’t really changed. Biden is just so old. He’s fragile and he’s sundowning. He’s already, today, the oldest president ever to serve. If he were reelected, he would be in office through his 86th birthday. That’s inappropriate – especially considering his current state.
But Biden’s health is only the most practical check against Biden running again. The other check would be Biden’s popularity, which has remained stubbornly low throughout his first term. And while it’s true, mainstream popularity is harder to come by in our increasingly polarized time, Biden is uniquely unpopular. If Biden does stay in the race, Republicans will hit him for inflation, energy costs, the Afghanistan withdrawal, and of course his age.
What About Harris?
Now if Biden were to withdraw – either voluntarily or involuntarily – Democrats would scramble to replace him. Newsom wouldn’t be guaranteed the slot. Actually, some observers have speculated that Vice President Kamala Harris is being groomed to step in for Biden in the event that he withdraws. Harris makes sense as the candidate in that she is the VP and hits some of the identity markers that Democrats are fixated on. But Harris is also profoundly unpopular – so much so that Democrats have debated whether she should be replaced on the 2024 ticket for fear she would hamper Biden’s reelection chances.
So, in the event that Biden steps out, Harris is no guarantee, either, leaving a lane open for Newsom.
Gavin Newsom In
“Gavin Newsom is running for President,” The New York Post reported last month. “He may not have announced yet, but there’s no doubt about it: he’s off.”
Of course, Newsom is being careful not to step on any toes in the Democratic Party. He’s not actually running, and won’t unless he’s given the green light. But he may be posturing for the top position; Newsom has been stumping, and touting California’s economic performance, and appearing on Sean Hannity’s show for a sit-down interview – all tactics to build a more national profile.
“Mr. Newsome is a young, charismatic politician who brings a fresh face to the party and has the ability to reenergize the Democratic base. The California governor also has a solid donor base and is good at raising money, an ability most politicians lack,” Adam Brandon argues in The Washington Times.
“As a presidential candidate, Mr. Newsom would force Republicans to respond to tough political discussions that they will try to avoid this cycle … This tactic will give Mr. Newsom an advantage to win over the electorate who are single-issue voters or who identify as independent and don’t like the extreme positions of either side of the aisle.”
We’ll see what happens. But for now, President Biden is still the presumptive Democratic nominee.
Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor and opinion writer at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.
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