Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump leads likely adversary and incumbent President Joe Biden in five of the six battleground states he needs to win next year’s election.
A new poll by the New York Times and Siena College found the former president leading the Democratic candidate by as much as ten points in swing states, which voted for Biden in 2020. Growing discontent with the 80-year-old’s policies has left him trailing the Republican opponent in all states, baring Wisconsin, where he leads by two points.
Trump leads Biden by ten points in Nevada, a state he narrowly lost in 2020. Moreover, the 77-year-old holds an advantage in Georgia (+6), Arizona (+5), Michigan (+5), and Pennsylvania (+4).
Across the nation, the former president leads the incumbent by 48 percent to 44 percent.
Biden Losing Support Across The Board
Compared to 2020, Biden’s landslide support from minority demographics has fallen, with an increasing number of minority voters leaning towards Trump. A much closer contest is expected, with two-thirds of the electorate believing that the country is heading in the wrong direction.
Voters under 30 now only favor Biden by a single percentage point, while his lead among Hispanic voters is down to single digits. His advantage in urban areas is half of Trump’s edge in rural regions, and while women remain in favor of the President, double the number of men support the Republican frontrunner.
Black voters are leaning towards Trump in swing states. A historically strong demographic for the Democrats, 22 percent of Black voters now support the former president – a level not seen for a Republican candidate in modern times. Intriguingly, the racial realignment between the two parties now means that Biden only leads Trump in Wisconsin, the swing state with the largest proportion of white voters.
Dissatisfaction with both likely candidates remains high; that being said, voters appear to be taking their frustrations out on the President rather than his predecessor.
Democratic Disaster?
It’s not all doom and gloom for the Democrats. Biden still has a year to improve his polling figures during a 2024 in which Trump will spend large portions of time and likely money in court. The economic outlook is improving from the struggles of 2022, and even then the Democrats were able to limit the damage in last year’s midterms. Moreover, Vice President Kamala Harris – largely out of the spotlight for much of Biden’s presidency so far – is already on the campaign trail focusing on much-needed demographics with strong financial backing.
The hard work has already begun, and who can blame the Democrats? As the nation enters the final year of the current electoral cycle, Biden trails an opponent who has been indicted four times so far, including in a state which he leads by six points. If the Trump Train is not running out of steam anytime soon, a fresh approach may be needed if the Democrats are to hold the White House.
The New York Times/Siena College poll consists of 3,662 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and was conducted by telephone using live operators from Oct. 22 to Nov. 3, 2023. When all states are combined, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. The margin of sampling error for each state is between 4.4 and 4.8 percentage points.
Shay Bottomley is a British journalist based in Canada. He has written for the Western Standard, Maidenhead Advertiser, Slough Express, Windsor Express, Berkshire Live and Southend Echo, and has covered notable events including the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee.
