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The Ukraine War is Becoming A Massive Drone War

Shahed-136. Image Credit: YouTube Screenshot.
Shahed-136. Image Credit: YouTube Screenshot.

Key Points: Ukraine’s counter-drone efforts achieved a breakthrough by diverting nearly 100 Iranian-made Shahed drones back toward Russian positions during a massive attack on November 26.

-Employing advanced electronic warfare (EW), including the Pokrova EW system, Ukraine spoofed the drones’ satellite navigation, causing them to reverse course.

-Though the redirected drones likely caused minimal damage, this tactic highlights Ukraine’s growing expertise in countering Russia’s unmanned aerial systems.

-The Pokrova system disrupts GPS signals, forcing drones to rely on unreliable inertial navigation.

-These developments underline the vulnerabilities of drones reliant on satellite guidance, raising questions about their reliability in modern warfare.

Ukraine’s Counter Drone Efforts Had Iranian-Made Shahed Do a Literal U-Turn

When the Iranian-made Shahed unmanned aerial combat vehicle (UACV) takes off and heads to its targets, its operators usually don’t expect to see it again. The one-way attack drones were developed to reach a target and detonate like a missile. While it is possible that a strike can be called off, and the drone recovered – but last month, Ukrainian force were able to successfully divert 100 of the UACVs back to Russian positions.

According to the French-based Le Monde, on November 26, Russia launched 188 Shahed drones and four Iskander-M ballistic missiles at Ukrainian positions.

It was the largest drone and missile strike carried out by the Kremlin’s forces to date; yet, it was far from successful – with 76 downed “kinetically by Ukrainian aid defenses using fight jets, helicopters, mobile air defense batteries, and surface-to-air missiles.” Electric jammers also helped counter some of the incoming drones.

Electronic Warfare vs. Drone Warfare

Beyond the drones that were downed, even more were sent back from whence they came. Ukraine employed “electronic warfare” (EW) techniques that “spoofed” the satellite coordinates of 95 of the drones, which caused the drones to do a literal U-turn in the sky and strike Russian positions instead.

Russian Drone in Ukraine

Russian Drone in Ukraine

It is unclear if the drones did much damage, which is unlikely as the Ukrainians wouldn’t have precise control. However, an additional 43 were also sent back to Belarus around the same time.

Earlier this year, the D.C.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) claimed that Kyiv’s EW efforts have become increasingly successful at countering Russia’s drones.

“Ukrainian EW systems are disrupting radar-guided Shahed-136/131 drones, causing the drones to change course and crash after running out of fuel,” ISW reported, citing Ukrainian military analyst Petro Chernyk.

The Defence Blog suggested that the Ukraine’s military deployed its Pokrova EW system in February, and reported it is “capable of suppressing and spoofing satellite navigation signals of drones and cruise missiles over a wide area.” This is noteworthy as the Iranian-made Shahed relies on satellite navigation to reach a target, and any signal loss results in it flying by a “primitive inertial navigation system.”

Without satellite navigation, even wind could disrupt the UACV enough that it would miss its target.

Drone

Drone. Image Credit: Screenshot.

The Pokrova EW System – which is named for the “Feast of Protection,” a religious celebration in Ukraine that can be traced back to the 10th century – doesn’t just jam the signal, it spoofs the satellite navigation. It mainly has been employed to have the UACVs fly and crash away from their intended targets, but the recent reports do make it seem like the technology is being refined enough that the drones are returned towards Russian lines.

It might not be enough to make the drones an actual threat to the Kremlin, but then again, it just might. The last thing Russia would want is to have to worry that its loitering munitions will return and strike its own positions.

This may also be something tech entrepreneur Elon Musk should pay attention to; as he recently claimed drones could replace manned aircraft like the F-35. While it is unlikely that an F-35 pilot would suddenly defect, drones can not only be countered but could increasingly have their satellite coordinates spoofed.

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu

Written By

Expert Biography: A Senior Editor for 1945, Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer who has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,000 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu.

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