Key Points and Summary: A new CNA report highlights key areas Taiwan must address to defend against a potential Chinese invasion.
-Drawing lessons from Ukraine’s battlefield experience, the report urges Taiwan to significantly expand its drone arsenal, strengthen satellite communications to counter cyber and electronic warfare threats, and enhance conscription training.
Lt. Col. Thomas Wolfe, the 455th Expeditionary Operations Group deputy commander, performs preflight checks on an F-16 Fighting Falcon at Bagram Airfield, Afghanistan, Feb. 1, 2016. The 421st EFS, based out of Bagram Airfield, is the only dedicated fighter squadron in the country and continuously supports Operation Freedom’s Sentinel and the NATO Resolute Support missions. (U.S. Air Force photo/Tech. Sgt. Nicholas Rau)
-While Taiwan has made progress, such as forming a National Drone Team and improving its garrison forces, the report suggests these efforts may be insufficient.
-With China increasing pressure, Taiwan must accelerate its military modernization, embrace cognitive warfare strategies, and ensure readiness for a possible full-scale conflict in the near future.
Taiwan Prepares for War: Drones, Satellites, and Conscription in Focus
To hold the line against an aggressive China, Taiwan will have to commit to a holistic force restructuring, embrace cognitive warfare, and invest in drones – lots and lots of drones.
Those are some of the lessons from a new report released in December from the Navy-affiliated think tank Center for Naval Analyses (CNA).
The report highlights a phrase now in common use on Taiwan: “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow.” It’s clear that the self-ruled nation understands the gravity of a potential attack of annexation from China. However, the report’s authors raise questions about whether, even so, the country is doing enough to prepare for the increasingly anticipated assault.
Here’s what they found.
Drones could even the odds against China – but Taiwan needs a lot of them
The war of defense that Ukraine continues to wage against an invading Russia has represented the first protracted conflict with extensive use of unmanned systems on both sides, and the world is watching. One notable theme has been the way that relatively inexpensive drones have proven a match for tanks and other costly conventional battlefield weapons, thus providing an opportunity to make a fight far more of a contest than it would otherwise be.
CNA’s report highlights the work Taiwan has already done to build up its drone arsenal, presumably while absorbing lessons from Ukraine’s battlefield in real time. It notes that Taiwan has developed a “National Drone Team” to pilot investments in uncrewed systems and established a new innovation center for research and development on the island. The National Drone Team has established plans to create an unmanned “kill chain” and to build more than 3,200 drones in five different categories by 2028.
Still, in light of China’s dominance of the drone industry through companies like DJI and the short lifespan of unmanned systems in a hot conflict, the report suggests Taiwan needs to think bigger.
“Although the Taiwan military has committed to acquiring more than 3,200 drones by 2028, media reports that Ukraine’s military has 20,000 drone operators, acquired 100,000 drones in 2023, and plans to produce one million drones in 2024 suggest that Taiwan will need to dramatically expand its acquisition of uncrewed systems to meet wartime requirements,” the report states.
Kevin Pollpeter, the report’s lead author, said in a December presentation at CNA that uncrewed systems could keep Taiwanese defenses going after setbacks from a first assault.
“In an initial Chinese attack on Taiwan, they’re going to shut down the air bases, right? They’re not going to be able to launch their F-16s and their Mirages … They won’t be able to use them, so they’re going to have to rely on [unmanned aerial vehicles], anything from smaller UAVs up to larger, like MQ-9 type UAVs,” Pollpeter said. “They’re talking about small quadcopter-type operations. They’re talking about uncrewed surface vessels to go after a Chinese amphibious force, or even underwater uncrewed vessels. They’re talking about uncrewed ground systems – very useful in urban situations.”
The U.S. Navy Nimitz-class aircraft carriers USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) and USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) transit the Philippine Sea during a photo exercise with multiple carrier strike groups, Oct. 3, 2021. The integrated at-sea operations brought together more than 15,000 Sailors across six nations, and demonstrates the U.S. Navy’s ability to work closely with its unmatched network of alliances and partnerships in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Michael B. Jarmiolowski) 211003-N-LI114-1208.
Taiwan is starting to take Chinese cognitive warfare seriously
In 2022, the same year Russia invaded Ukraine, former Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen cited information warfare operations as the greatest threat to the island’s survival, the report notes. Russia, of course, has capitalized on cognitive warfare, using misinformation and disinformation for influence operations that are at the core of its strategy.
Taiwanese researchers are paying attention to the power of disinformation and propaganda in war. But while Taiwanese fact-checking centers have been established, the report states, the country’s psychological warfare strategy is incomplete, requiring more internet equipment and infrastructure to observe harmful messaging and respond to it in real time.
Pollpeter cited a 2018 earthquake in Japan that left hundreds of Taiwanese citizens stranded at an airport in Osaka, and described how the Chinese government had effectively spread reports that it had sent buses to retrieve the passengers – on the condition that they swear allegiance to China and identify as Chinese. However, the whole account was false, and created chaos and confusion for the Taiwanese government.
“Taiwan faces a threat that is probably more pernicious and less easily countered,” Pollpeter said.
Strong satellite communications will be critical
The impact of Elon Musk’s Starlink network in Ukraine is one example of the proven criticality of reliable communications networks on the modern battlefield.
CNA’s report notes that Taiwan’s connectivity is supported by 14 submarine internet cables, making communications vulnerable to Chinese sabotage. Between 2017 and 2023 it states, cables to Taiwan have been cut 30 times, often by accident.
Taiwan is taking notice: In 2023, the Taiwan Ministry of Digital Affairs and Chunghwa Telecom finalized agreements with European companies, the report states, to establish satellite communication services and gain access to low-earth orbit networks.
A Chengdu J-10 fighter of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force.
“The Taiwan Space Agency has suggested that it may need 120 satellites for resilience, and the Taiwan government has committed to acquiring additional ground-based satellite communication terminals,” the report says. “However, the number of terminals is far below the amount used by Ukraine.”
Pollpeter suggested again that the threat from China and the necessary remedy may be larger than what Taiwan is considering.
“They’ve got the idea, but are they taking it as far as they need to, even in regard to just Starlink or satellite communications?” he said. “Granted, Ukraine is a lot larger than Taiwan; [the Taiwanese] wouldn’t need as many terminals. But Ukraine has about 40,000 Starlink terminals. Right now, Taiwan is talking about 700.”
It’s time to shore up a highly trained conscription-based military force
Both Russia and Ukraine have built and sustained their fighting forces through aggressive and far-reaching conscription policies. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, then-Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen lengthened service commitments under the island’s existing conscription policy from four months to one year, despite public objections. This was designed, according to the report, to both increase the size of the Taiwanese garrison force and develop better-trained troops. Other restructuring efforts at the same time divided the country’s military into four elements, better allocating the duties of national defense in case of an invasion.
And as conscripts build up a new-and-improved garrison force, holes are beginning to show, Pollpeter said, citing a lack of sufficient military instructors and equipment.
“These Garrison troops are the conscripts that will fight in the cities, right? It’s going to be the active-duty troops, the full-time troops that have signed on for four-year terms of enlistment will be on the beaches fighting the [Chinese People’s Liberation Army],” Pollpeter said. “The garrison troops, which are going to be the one-year conscripts, are going to be situated in the cities trying to bog down the PLA. And so in order to do that, you need some of these weapons that they’ve been using to train like, you know, Stingers, Javelins, Kestrels, those sorts of things. And what they’re finding then is that they just don’t have the number of instructors or the equipment to train on.”
J-20 Stealth Fighter. Image: Creative Commons.
So, will Taiwan be ready when a fight comes to its shores? CNA researcher and report coauthor April Herlevi said the future is uncertain, and in many ways allies have to wait for Taiwan to reach its own conclusions about what it needs.
“If you look at think tanks, if you look at military journals, and some of the think tanks associated with the Ministry of National Defense, they are taking these discussions to heart, and they are taking it seriously,” she said. “I also don’t think they want to just take, ‘Oh, if someone from the U.S. says you have to do this, this is what’s going to be your solution.’ They have to do their own research too. They’re not going to just assume that other people are right.”
About the Author: Hope Seck
Hope Hodge Seck is an award-winning investigative and enterprise reporter who has been covering military issues since 2009. She is managing editor of Military.com. Hope’s previous assignments have included a war zone embed in Afghanistan with Marines and multiple reporting trips to the Middle East and aboard amphibious ships and aircraft carriers. This first appeared in Sandboxx.
