Key Points and Summary: Saudi Arabia has expressed interest in joining the UK-Italy-Japan Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), which aims to develop a sixth-generation fighter by 2035.
-Riyadh’s financial resources and push for defense localization under Vision 2030 could benefit the program, but concerns remain.
GCAP 6th Generation Fighter
-Japan, wary of Saudi Arabia’s ties with China and Russia, is hesitant to share sensitive technology.
-Additionally, adding a fourth partner could complicate decision-making.
-Saudi Arabia’s exclusion from the F-35 program has fueled its pursuit of advanced fighters elsewhere, but its entry into GCAP remains uncertain amid geopolitical and strategic tensions.
Saudi Arabia Eyes 6th-Gen Fighter Project: What’s Next for GCAP?
Saudi Arabia has reportedly expressed interest in joining the Global Combat Air Programme, or GCAP, a multinational effort by the United Kingdom, Italy, and Japan to develop cutting-edge sixth-generation combat aircraft.
Saudi Arabia’s potential inclusion into the GCAP project does raise some opportunities, but it also poses potential challenges given the project’s geopolitical and highly complex technical aspects.
Global Combat Air Programme or GCAP, Explained
GCAP launched in December 2022 as a collaboration between the United Kingdom’s BAE Systems, Italy’s Leonardo, and Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to produce a sixth-generation fighter by 2035, replacing existing aircraft like the Eurofighter Typhoon and Japan’s F-2.
The engineering obstacles are immense, as GCAP would need to master a number of new technologies.
Saudi Arabia: Potential Cash Injection
One of the main advantages of Saudi Arabia joining GCAP would be the financial resources it could provide.
The development of a sixth-generation fighter is expected to cost tens of billions of dollars, and Riyadh’s vast defense budget could help ease the financial burden on the existing partners.
Saudi Arabia is one of the world’s biggest arms importers and spends billions of dollars on military kit, mostly from the United States but also from some European countries, particularly for fighter aircraft.
Fledgling Defense Industry
Saudi Arabia is keen to invest in building their own defense industry. Riyadh’s Vision 2030 initiative seeks to develop its domestic defense industry and ultimately wants to localize 50 percent of defense spending.
Participation in GCAP could help achieve this goal by giving Saudi companies access to advanced aerospace tech. However, it remains unclear whether all GCAP partners would be willing to share sensitive aerospace technology with the Kingdom.
“I think [joining] the program [GCAP] is important to Saudi Arabia and it’s managed by MoD. And we are part of that from the localization point of view. There is a serious discussion [as] Saudi Arabia is very keen on the sixth-generation fighters, and we are talking to the UK their partners and we are making good steps forward,” Ahmad Al-Ohali, the governor of the Saudi government’s General Authority for Military Industries (GAMI), told Breaking Defense early last year.
Al-Ohali acknowledged the potential obstacles, “but I think we have options and we know what we require. As His Royal Highness Prince Mohammed said seven years ago, there will be no armament transaction without localization. To us, this is our motto… there’ll be no transaction without serious, decent and important localization in Saudi Arabia.”
Japanese Reservations & Concerns
Japan, in particular, has expressed reservations about Saudi Arabia’s involvement in GCAP. Tokyo has expressed concern about Riyadh’s relatively good relations with both China and Russia. Given Japan’s increasingly tense relationship with Beijing and its historical distrust of Moscow, Tokyo is wary of potential security risks associated with expanding the GCAP partnership.
Image of the UK’s concept model for the next generation jet fighter “Tempest”, which was unveiled by Defence Secretary, at Farnborough International Air Show back in 2018.
Adding a fourth partner to GCAP has the potential to complicate decision-making, raising the prospect of potential disagreements over operational priorities, technology transfer, and production workloads.
Saudi Arabia’s Exclusion from the F-35 Program
Saudi interest in GCAP is also a reflection of the country’s frustration over being excluded from the American-led F-35 program. The United States has refused to sell its most advanced stealth fighter to Riyadh, in part thanks to regional security dynamics — the United States seeks to ensure Israel maintains a qualitative military advantage in the region.
GCAP is Saudi Arabia’s attempt to secure access to advanced fighters without having to rely on approval from Washington.
A U.S. Air Force F-35 Lightning II approaches a U.S. Air Force KC-135 Stratotanker over the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, July 22, 2020. The F-35 Lightning II is an agile, versatile, high-performance, multirole fighter that combines stealth, sensor fusion and unprecedented situational awareness. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Duncan C. Bevan)
The Future is Uncertain
Saudi Arabia’s membership in GCAP remains an open question. While the program could benefit from a likely generous Saudi cash infusion, Japanese security qualms, as well as the potential for significant project complexity, may scupper Riyadh’s inclusion.
About the Author: Caleb Larson
Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines from Donbas and writing on the war’s civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.
