How Taiwan Could Turn a Chinese Invasion into a Costly Nightmare

Key Points and Summary: Taiwan faces a growing threat of invasion from China, which has been bolstering its military and expressing its intent for “reunification.”

-While Taiwan is strengthening its conventional defenses and seeking international support, a key strategy involves asymmetric warfare.

-This approach leverages Taiwan’s mountainous terrain to create a stronghold for insurgency in case of initial Chinese success.

-By inflicting sustained costs on the PLA through guerilla tactics, targeted assassinations, and disruption of supply lines, Taiwan aims to make the invasion too costly for China to sustain.

-This strategy, combined with potential economic pressure from international sanctions, is designed to deter a Chinese invasion or force a withdrawal.

Taiwan’s Secret Weapon Against China: Mountains and Guerilla Warfare

Fears of a Chinese amphibious assault against Taiwan are real, and IndoPACOM, Taipei, and various institutions are currently preparing contingencies for a naval attack and potential blockade of the island nation. Nevertheless, questions remain about whether direct American and other allied intervention will come and whether the Republic of China (ROC) Armed Forces will hold and repel the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) enough to force Beijing to stop their ambitions.

If the PLA were to score critical victories in the first several hours and eliminate critical Taiwanese infrastructure and leadership, a failsafe asymmetric plan should be implemented in the island’s more fortified mountains.

China Ramps Up Naval Preparations and Rhetoric

The People’s Republic of China has made it no secret that ‘reunification’ with Taiwan is essential for Beijing’s goal of reversing the “century of humiliation.” Reunification by diplomatic means or military force is enshrined in the mainland’s current laws and foreign policy.

In preparation for a potential conquest of Taiwan, the PRC has built the world’s largest naval force, eclipsing the US Navy. Whereas the US Navy is divided into seven fleets with various global responsibilities, China is primarily located in East Asia, giving Beijing a major boost against America’s Seventh Fleet.

Aside from a naval buildup, the PLA has increased its aerial capabilities and enhanced siege warfare to prepare for a potential blockade of Taiwan. Furthermore, recent reports showed heavy barges being created to land troops and equipment more effectively in Taiwan, suggesting the ruling Communist Party has made up its mind about an invasion and that it may only be “when,” not “if.”

Taiwan and Allied Preparations for Invasion 

Taiwan is currently preparing a major defensive posture and revamping the ROC Armed Forces to prepare for the looming threat of the PRC. The ROC went through a period of stagnation, corruption, and lack of preparation. For such actions, a reconstitution of forces into smaller, fast teams with stronger NCO and field officer authority will be needed.

Taipei plans to bolster the island’s defense with major arms purchases, including a wish list for an Aegis destroyer, HIMARS, several dozen F-35s, four hundred Patriot air defense missiles, and anti-ship missiles.

Chinese PLAN Navy. Image: Chinese Internet.

Simultaneously, after spending two decades in perpetual land conflicts, the United States realized the growing Chinese military threat in the Indo-Pacific and is preparing for amphibious warfare. The US military is moving away from tanks and enhancing naval capabilities at home and abroad, such as the AUKUS trilateral submarine pact.

Furthermore, the United States Marine Corps has reconstituted its troops for Force Design 2030 to combat the PLA through small and fast transports that can be easily carried in amphibious vessels through various islands in the Indo-Pacific.

Japan is also in the process of remilitarization, which has not been seen since World War Two. Tokyo realizes Beijing’s rising threat. Already having a major dispute over Chinese naval maritime agitations near the islets, the Japanese government expressed willingness to potentially intervene if Taipei is militarily threatened.

The PLA Will Immediately Conduct Decapitation Strikes

The greatest threat to China’s potential conquest of Taiwan would be direct American intervention and possible help from other allies such as Japan. Because of the time limit to draw Taipei into a quick capitulation before Washington intervenes, Beijing would look to enact immediate decapitation strikes on Taiwanese political and military leadership.

The PLA would implement blockading Taiwan through the now world’s largest navy supplemented by a growing Air Force. The PLA would also utilize weak points on the island to land their barges for ground forces and armor.

China’s economy is currently stagnant with signs of decline, and Beijing’s best way to avoid global sanctions for an invasion is to score a quick victory and not be dragged down into a prolonged war with major casualties, such as Russia is experiencing in Ukraine. Hoping for countries to be unwilling or too preoccupied to defend Taiwan, a last resort will ultimately have to be asymmetric warfare in the form of insurgency in the mountains.

If the PLA Succeeds, Mountain Warfare Will be the Last Resort for Taiwan

Outside of superior firepower, the ROC military lacks experience and motivation. Nevertheless, the ultimate goal of defending against a PRC invasion is to show the mainland that the costs of invading will outweigh the rewards, and the best way to do so in case Beijing is initially successful is through insurgency.

Taiwan’s grueling topography is arguably its strength, which makes asymmetrical warfare even more crucial. Taiwan’s mountainous terrain allows the military to conceal and protect combat aircraft from Chinese Air Force sorties and furthermore gives the ROC military and its leadership the chance to regroup unabated in the rigorous fortifications.

J-36 Fighter from China. Image Credit: X Screenshot.

Whereas China would prefer a sole conventional conflict with an unconditional surrender, the ROC should create units specializing in irregular warfare. With the rigid mountains serving as fallback options for leadership and regular forces, paths leading to them should be fortified by tens of thousands of mines and choke points for designated marksmen and anti-aircraft specialists.

Akin to Ukraine’s successful assassinations of Russian leadership in occupied areas and Russia proper, Taiwan’s intelligence apparatus can take lessons from the Ukraine war, as key liquidations of PLA leadership would demoralize mainland occupational forces.

The People’s Republic’s biggest disadvantage to guerrilla warfare will be its public image, economy, and energy resources. Indoctrinating the PRC for decades that the mainland and Taiwanese citizens are one with the mainland, the ruling CCP could face international and domestic scrutiny for killing and harming Taiwanese as they did during the Hong Kong Protests in 2019.

A prolonged occupation to attempt to quell the ROC’s guerrilla insurgency could also further degrade the already growingly stagnant Chinese economy. While conventional wars, such as preparing a major amphibious operation not seen since D-Day, would be very expensive, a Taiwanese insurgency would only further burden the PRC’s economy.

America’s true cost burden during the forever wars of Afghanistan and Iraq wasn’t the initial push, as both the original Taliban government and Saddam’s regime fell quickly; it was the perpetual occupations with no clear goals that followed. The PLA would have to move to not only immediately quell the insurgency but also pacify tens of millions of Taiwanese civilians in their notorious re-education camps, which would be a major economic and public relations nightmare for the mainland.

Chinese Navy Warship Created by Artist. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Furthermore, if China were to take over Taiwan, there would be no guarantee that Taipei’s allies, such as the United States, would stay idle. If willing, the US military could blockade the Malacca Strait—China’s economic and energy lifeline. The strait accounts for much of China’s energy resources, and a blockade could quickly turn the mainland’s economy into disarray and force Beijing into negotiations, where the PLA could be forced to withdraw from Taiwan.

Ideally, the best way to deter a PRC invasion of Taiwan is for the ROC Armed Forces to be prepared to attract the PLA to where Beijing realizes the economy and international backlash. Through asymmetric warfare, Taiwan can force China to see that the costs outweigh any rewards in a perpetual occupation filled with a bloody insurgency.

About the Author: Julian McBride 

Julian McBride, a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor, is a forensic anthropologist and independent journalist born in New York. He is the founder and director of the Reflections of War Initiative (ROW), an anthropological NGO that aims to tell the stories of the victims of war through art therapy. As a former Marine, he uses this technique not only to help heal PTSD but also to share people’s stories through art, which conveys “the message of the brutality of war better than most news organizations.”