Can Ukraine Keep Fighting Russia Without U.S. Military Weapons?

In November 2023, retired UK General Sir Richard Barrons addressed an audience of European leaders at the Lucerne Dialogue in Switzerland.  

Speaking to the issue of could Europe go it alone to support the Ukrainian military in its war against Russia should the US curtail the aid it has provided since 2022 he said, “don’t tell me that you can’t afford to mobilize your industry and will so that Ukraine wins.”

“You imagine an economy of 15 trillion Euros a year,” he continued. “Give me 75 billion Euros a year for 2-3 years, and I will make sure that the Ukrainian army wins. It’s not about whether it’s affordable. It’s about choice, about competence.”

Ukraine Crisis: No More U.S. Military Arms? 

The concern that this scenario is no longer theoretical and could become reality has risen due to the ultimatum that US President Donald Trump has presented to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

“Your people are very brave but you’re either make a deal, or we are out, and if we’re out you’ll fight it out,” was the US President’s position stated last week .

Trump canceled a planned signing ceremony for a bilateral minerals deal, telling Zelensky he had “disrespected” the United States and that he was “not ready for peace if America is involved.”

Monday Night Cancellation?

According to some reports, the administration had already discussed cutting off all shipments of military aid, but no decisions had been made as of last week.   

However, as of Monday night, 3 March, a decision was made to “pause” all shipments of US military assistance to Ukraine.

Two unnamed US officials who were reportedly familiar with the thinking behind the decision stated this was a calculated move on Trump’s part.  

It is hoped that cutting off these military assistance deliveries will force Zelenskiy to the negotiating table.

How Ukraine Gets Military Aid 

Three channels used during the Biden Administration provided military hardware to Ukraine. The most often-used of these is the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA). In this hardware, already in military stocks in the US are taken “off the shelf” and then usually shipped to the US base in Rzeszów in Southestern Poland near the Ukraine border.

The other mechanisms are through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) and Foreign Military Financing (FMF). Before last night’s cutoff, the aid committed to Ukraine was projected to be enough to last another six months, but if there is a complete shutdown in deliveries, the prospects for Kyiv become much darker.

Can Europe Fill The Military Void?

Since the row between Zelensky and Trump last Friday, senior European leaders have been transmitting their messages of encouragement to Kyiv.  

Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, has used her social media accounts to assure Zelenskiy that he is “never alone” and that “we will continue working with you for a just and lasting peace”, but there has been no details of what those promises mean in terms of on the ground realities.

The biggest issue is that aside from having very low production rates for the military hardware that Ukraine requires. Prompted by the setbacks Ukraine’s forces suffered last year due to shortages of artillery shells, Europe has increased its own production to nearly 2 million artillery rounds a year.

But analysts watching the op-tempo of the war to date state this figure is not even enough to fill Ukraine’s requirements.  Also, if the bulk of production was sent to Ukraine, Europe’s own military establishments would not receive nearly enough to support their own forces should they be pressed into action.

Ukraine tanks fighting. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

This week, reporting on the latest developments in the war have characterized Europe’s long-term approach to providing for its defense as “lamentably lax.” 

This has been the product of a threat seen as too distant geographically (until now) and the reluctance of politicians to increase taxes.

About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson 

Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is now an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw.  He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design.  Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.