Article Summary: China is strengthening its nuclear triad with the development of its Type 096 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN). The Type 096, expected in the late 2020s, will carry advanced JL-3 ballistic missiles capable of hitting U.S. territory from greater distances, enhancing China’s strategic deterrence.
Key Point #1 – Quieter and stealthier than previous Jin-class subs, it poses a new challenge to U.S. anti-submarine capabilities. Additionally, suspected Russian collaboration may boost its stealth performance.
Key Point #2 – Coupled with China’s growing nuclear arsenal—aiming for 1,000 warheads by the 2030s—this new submarine will further complicate U.S.-China nuclear dynamics, underscoring the need for strategic arms control discussions between both countries.
Those 4 Words: China’s Nuclear Detterence Submarine
China’s Type 096 Submarine: A Growing Nuclear Threat?
The United States and its Western allies are scratching their heads again about China. This time, it is about undersea warfare. China has a newfangled nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine – an SSBN – in development. This “Type 096” boat will be able to strike enemies with a nuclear warhead and gives it more range due to its nuclear propulsion to threaten the United States and the West.
China Is a Bonafide Nuclear Power
China has an estimated 600 operational nuclear warheads. This stockpile is growing by the year. This new boomer will strengthen the submarine leg of its nuclear triad.
“The Type 096 will be more numerous, more stealthy, and may range over a wider area, all of which necessitates a rethink of U.S. capabilities and their deployment,” Emma Salisbury, an associate fellow at the U.K.-based Council on Geostrategy, said to Newsweek.
Better Nuclear-tipped Ballistic Missiles
The Type 096 will have advanced JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missiles. These nuclear weapons can reach the United States. The JL-3 is more potent than the earlier JL-2, which has less range. China already has older Jin-class ballistic missile submarines, and the Type 096 boats will eventually replace the six Jin-class Type 094 subs.
With the JL-3, Chinese submarines like the Type 096 can sail further away from North America in the Pacific Ocean and still attack with a nuclear weapon.
The Type 096 will be quieter than the Jin-class, and the extended range is a welcome addition to the People’s Liberation Army Navy. The PLAN eventually wants eight to ten Type 096s.
Improved Nuclear Strategy Allows for First Strike Maximum Deterrence
The Chinese have long said their nuclear posture is one of “minimum deterrence.” This means that its nuclear weapons are only for second-strike use and not first use. But with more than 600 warheads in its stockpile, China has a credible first-strike capability, especially with a newer long-range nuclear-powered SSBN. China would like to have 1,000 nuclear warheads by the 2030s.
Russia Could Be Helping with the Nuclear Propulsion
To make the Type 096 sub better, the United States believes Russia is giving China the necessary technologies to make it quieter. This is in exchange for the Chinese supporting Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. China denies working with Russia on its nuclear-powered Type 096 boats.
“U.S. naval researchers previously reported that the [Type 096] shares similarities with Russian designs in terms of stealth capabilities, sensing equipment, and weapons systems. This includes a specialized ‘raft’ design, which utilizes a rubber support system to reduce engine noise, improving the submarine’s stealth performance,” according to the Eurasian Times.
The Type 096 will be 492 feet long and can reach a top speed of 29 knots. The Type 096 is similar in capability to Russia’s Borei-class SSBNs. The Type 096 is expected to enter active duty in the late 2020s or early 2030s.
Don’t Forget About China’s New Nuclear-powered Aircraft Carrier
China is also working on a sizeable nuclear-powered supercarrier to rival the U.S. Navy’s Ford-class flat-tops. The Type 096 would give the PLAN a substantial pairing with the new aircraft carrier and place U.S. deterrence efforts in East Asia at risk.
Once China receives the Type 096 and becomes seaworthy, the United States should consider entering into arms talks with China. The People’s Liberation Army nuclear triad will be fully mature by then, and 1,000 nuclear warheads are a problem.
The Chinese have walked away from nuclear arms limitation negotiations because of U.S. support for Taiwan. It may take the Trump administration to realize that in East Asia, with North Korea and China as nuclear powers, it is time to get serious about arms control.
China could create a stronger nuclear triad to give it more leverage in nuclear talks. It can always hang the Taiwan albatross around the United States. Arms limitation talks with the Chinese would be advantageous for both sides.
SSBN China Submarine. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
China could get a security promise from the United States to limit support for Taiwan, and the United States could receive permission to inspect Chinese nuclear infrastructure. The Americans could also get the Chinese to curtail the exchange of nuclear submarine information from Russia.
Overall, the United States has a problem on its hands with the Type 096 submarine. The SSBN will be stealthier than the Type 094, and the U.S. Navy will have to devise ways to counteract it with better anti-submarine warfare capabilities.
The Type 096 will have an improved nuclear missile that China could use for a first strike or a definite second strike should the unthinkable happen and nuclear war become imminent. China is beginning to enforce its own type of deterrence in East Asia, and it is time the United States recognizes that China is a nuclear power to be reckoned with.
Ohio-class submarine. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
