Article Summary: The U.S. economy has shifted rapidly from optimism to recession fears, fueled largely by President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies and recent market volatility.
-Although Trump previously promised booming prosperity, he’s now warning Americans of short-term pain and economic “detox.” Trump and allies have started blaming President Biden for current economic conditions, while strategists suggest he might downplay recession risks, appealing to patriotism and predicting lower inflation and interest rates.
-With no future election to face, Trump may feel less pressure, confident a recovery will precede his legacy. However, recession concerns persist, challenging Trump’s narrative of delivering consistent economic success.
The Donald Trump Recession Could Happen
The R-word — recession — is suddenly on the lips of just about everyone who follows the economic picture.
According to a CNN analysis, the economy went, in just 20 days, from “booming to a recession scare.” And while a recession is not anything close to assured — the last big recession scare, in 2022, never came to pass — the picture went from positive to negative extremely quickly, with the stock market bleeding value the last two weeks.
And per that analysis, the continuing uncertainty over President Trump’s tariff threats remains a big reason why.
Trump Reacts
Trump, throughout his 2024 presidential campaign and early days back in office, has frequently promised economic prosperity and widespread wealth for everyone, even declaring at a rally last year that “We are going to boom like we’ve never boomed before.” Asking Americans to live through some short-term economic pain was never part of the pitch.
But the last three weeks, Trump has changed his tune.
Per the New York Times, Trump has been refusing to rule out a recession, while his Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, has warned that an economic “detox” is necessary. At one point, Trump even stated that “you can’t really watch the stock market,” even though he was obsessed with the stock market and frequently touted positive news about it during his first presidency.
Trump, on Tuesday, was set to address a group of business CEOs and Wall Street executives as part of the Business Roundtable, many of whom supported him in the election but likely now have a great deal of questions.
Blame Biden?
It’s common when an economic downturn hits early in a presidency for the current president or his allies to blame the previous administration. When things turned south economically in the first year of the George W. Bush administration, Fox News quickly dubbed it “the Clinton-Gore recession.”
Fox is doing a similar thing now, almost 25 years later. Maria Bartiromo said this week that should a recession arrive, “It would be Biden’s recession.”
Such a claim may end up harder to make than at other times, simply because the economic picture dramatically got worse shortly after Trump came into office, and it’s easy to point to specific policies that are the reason why.
Other Defenses
Politico predicted what some of the talking points might look like when it comes to how the Trump Administration will defend itself amid bad economic news.
An economic slowdown, the thinking goes, could finally bring inflation down, in a way further than the “soft landing” executed by the Fed during the Biden Administration. Interest rates could also see a cut. Trump is also likely to appeal to patriotism amid the tariffs, in seeking to have products built in America.
Why Donald Trump Might Not Care
It’s not hard to realize why Trump may not be panicking as much about a recession as he might otherwise be.
Trump is in his second term and never has to face voters again. An economic downturn might hurt the Republican Party going forward, but Trump has never shown that he especially cares about the relative well-being of his party.
Plus, it’s still the opening months of his second term. Even if a recession hits now, recessions tend not to last years. If there’s a recession, the recovery will almost certainly be well on its way by the end of Trump’s term.
If his concern is his legacy, a recession in the first year of a four-year term would likely not form the basis of how his second presidency is remembered, even if that presidency weren’t as eventful as Trump’s already has been.
President of the United States Donald Trump speaking with supporters at a “Keep America Great” rally at Arizona Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Phoenix, Arizona.
If There’s a Will…
Trump almost certainly believes, based on everything we’ve seen from him in the last ten years, that he can move economic prosperity back into existence by the sheer force of his will.
And perhaps he can. But about eight weeks into Trump’s presidency, the picture is looking grim.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter
Jim
March 11, 2025 at 1:12 pm
The author writes, “Trump has never shown that he especially cares about the relative well-being of his party.”
What we do know is Trump does care about his legacy.
Beyond already part of American History as president, he is only the second man to have non-consecutive terms (the other Grover Cleveland, the 22nd and 24th president of the United States, from 1885 to 1889 and again from 1893 to 1897) which last happened 132 years ago… some thought it would never be repeated.
Trump isn’t satisfied with the above.
Trump wants to hand off to the Republican nominee in 2028 an economy and foreign policy which puts the wind at the back of the nominee.
Having that nominee win in the Fall of ’28 adds to his legacy and building the Republican Party into the dominate political party (like FDR did for the Democrats) in the United States is the legacy Trump wants to leave at the end of his term.
Bet on it.
Can he succeed?
Depends on his policies and effectiveness.
Tariffs will not be the reason if Trump fails to achieve his personal aspirations… they might be part of it, but not the whole.