Summary and Key Points: The U.S. Air Force faces a critical choice: extend the life of the aging F-22 Raptor or invest in the expensive and uncertain Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter.
-The NGAD’s estimated $300 million per aircraft raises concerns about affordability, prompting officials to consider substantial upgrades to the existing F-22 fleet instead.
-Upgrading Raptors to the advanced Block 30 standard would ensure the U.S. maintains air superiority against evolving threats like China’s fifth-generation fighters. Given NGAD’s unclear timeline, prioritizing F-22 modernization seems prudent to avoid capability gaps.
-Congress must urgently guide this decision, preventing costly mistakes and ensuring long-term air dominance.
F-22 vs. NGAD: Why the Air Force Faces a Tough Choice on Its Future Fighter
The US Air Force has a decision to make. The service branch is working on the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter to replace the F-22 Raptor. However, there are questions about the staying power of the NGAD program. The new airplane could run as much as $300 million a unit. The program is on pause until Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and his acquisition team decide whether to proceed with the project. Meanwhile, the F-22 grows older by the day.
How long can the Air Force fly the Raptor effectively if there is no NGAD to replace it?
The F-22 has a new enemy: Father Time.
The F-22 Will Require a Significant Investment
There had been plans to retire the fighter by 2030. One reason is the F-22 is expensive to keep in the air. In FY2025, the proposed budget for the Raptor through 2029 is $4.7 billion for procurement and $3.1 for research, development, testing, and evaluation.
The platform adds up to $7.8 billion. There are around 185 F-22s in service. That’s about $42 million per airplane over the next four years. The Air Force would have to spend that much just to keep the F-22 around, and this budget doesn’t include required updates.
What Will Happen to the NGAD?
The F-22 is supposed to serve as a “bridge” to the NGAD. Unfortunately, the 6th generation warplane has not been included in the list of 17 priorities that Secretary Hegseth has laid out. However, the F-22 upgrades required in the next five years could be integrated into the NGAD, which could trim the price of the nascent ultra-stealth warbird.
The budget assumes that 32 Block 20 F-22s will be retired, saving some money. Then, the remaining 142 will receive updates to keep the technology and specifications current. Each airframe needs to graduate to the Block 30 variant—the most advanced model. The idea is to make the F-22 remain relevant to fight China if needed. The Chinese now have two fifth-generation fighter jets, so it makes sense that the United States would need two as well—counting the F-35 in the equation.
Tough Decisions to Make on the Proposed F-22 Upgrade Package
Here is the problem with the update plan. Bringing all F-22s into the Block 30 standard will take about five years. The updates may not all be completed by the time the NGAD is ready, so it doesn’t make sense to do all the upgrades if the airplane will be retired shortly after the process is completed.
This schedule assumes that the NGAD will be in service by 2030, if the program gets the green light. So, the Air Force is caught in a conundrum. Pursue the NGAD and get it built in numbers in the next five years and update the F-22 simultaneously, then retire the Raptors or skip the F-22 upgrades entirely. This is a confusing state of affairs.
For the Block 30 standard, the Air Force aims to work on “the air vehicle, engine, Operational Flight Program (OFP), and training systems to improve F-22 weapons, communications, navigation, pilot-vehicle interface, and electronic warfare suite,” according to Air & Space Forces magazine.
These essential upgrades should make the F-22 effective over the next five years. However, these plans are still a gamble. What if NGAD is canceled? The Air Force would have made the correct decision on working on the Block 30 standard. However, if NGAD is built? Would it make the upgrade process a fool’s errand?
This assumes the NGAD will be ready in 2030. I’m betting it will take until 2035. Only the engines are progressing nicely in the project. Two NGAD propulsion systems compete to be installed on the 6th generation fighter. The rest of the airplane design is not certain.
F-22 Raptor. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
NGAD Is an Ambitious Program
Plus, the NGAD will be controlling drones called Collaborative Combat Aircraft. It will need to be able to carry lasers and launch hypersonic weapons. The platform must be ultra-stealthy, and the whole thing needs to be a “family of systems.”
The Best Decision Is to Complete the F-22 Upgrades
Therefore, since the NGAD is so immature, the Air Force should probably go ahead with the Block 30 upgrades and assume the NGAD will be canceled or delayed. The Air Force does not want to be caught with an older F-22 that is not as effective in the skies.
That means the F-22 could last until 2035 and not 2030. That would probably be fine with its pilots, who believe the Raptor is a fast and super maneuverable air superiority fighter who can easily win dogfights.
Congress must step into the breach and help the Hegseth-run Pentagon decide soon on the fate of NGAD because this will help determine the upgrade process on the F-22. Lawmakers should question Pentagon uniform and civilian leadership on the future of both the NGAD and F-22 programs.
Otherwise, billions could be wasted, and F-22 pilots may not fly the most updated airplane.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
