Looking at the title of this article, the first reaction might be to ask if this is a trick question. Excluding NATO-member Poland and the two most recent additions to the alliance – Finland and Sweden – the words “Europe” and “arms build-up” usually do not belong in the same sentence.
A measurable surge in European defense production would have to occur before there would be something that the Russians would feel compelled to respond to. The most recent developments are not encouraging – if you are the Europeans, that is.
The letdown is probably even worse for the Ukrainians, who are apparently going to have to place more of their fate in Europe. This is mainly due now to the US halting shipments of military aid and shutting down the intelligence and satellite data that Ukraine has used for targeting Russian military facilities and detecting Russian drone and missile attacks.
Just recently, it was even announced that the US Government had blocked US commercial satellite firms from selling imagery to Ukraine. “The suspension was immediately felt by soldiers in the Ukrainian military, which relies on fresh imagery to plan attacks, study terrain and assess the efficacy of artillery strikes,” read the coverage in the Washington Post.
At the same time, a gathering of EU officials last week determined to find a way to compensate for Washington’s cutoff of aid to Kyiv, which ended with less than spectacular results.
The EU – minus Hungary – “signed off on a Ukraine statement that draws red lines for future peace talks, calls for Kyiv’s accession to the bloc, and pledged future military aid without specific targets,” read the report on the event from Politico.eu.
What Is Russia Likely To Do
Should Europe actually begin a defense production surge, Russia will have a major problem.
Its “go-to” response of “we will just start building more than you” may not be possible. For over a year now, Moscow’s arms makers have struggled with a triple-whammy of labor shortages, supply chain inputs of foreign components now banned for sale to Russia by sanctions, and locally-made commodities also being in short supply.
Long ago, Russia was forced to scale back its quality control standards in order to meet production targets. It is an image at odds with the massive defense-industrial empire that defeated Germany in WWII and built the Cold War-era Soviet military machine.
Russia has also suffered from the ability to produce enough gunpowder in the past three years. Those plants that have attempted to increase their output have sometimes been damaged or destroyed by Ukrainian long-range missile and drone strikes.
Special Measures from Russia
In the absence of being able to out-produce European firms, the Russians would undoubtedly revert back to what they do best: espionage, sabotage, and other dirty tricks.
A long feature story from the BBC details the activities of a six-person spy ring – all Bulgarians – who had been operating in the UK until 2023 on behalf of Russia.
At one point, the ring had planned to send part of their group to Stuttgart, where they believed Ukrainian soldiers were training on Patriot missile systems. Part of their mission was to capture the mobile phone data of the Ukrainian troops training in Germany.
Had they managed to do so, “they might have used it to pinpoint those same troops on the battlefield – leading Russian forces to Western-supplied Ukrainian air defenses,” reads the BBC report.
“This was espionage activity of the highest level of seriousness,” prosecutor Alison Morgan KC told the jury at the Old Bailey, the name commonly used for the Criminal Court of England and Wales in London.
Another Bulgarian spy ring – this time in Bulgaria itself – was broken up in 2021, with several of those arrested having held senior positions at Bulgaria’s Defense Ministry and in the Military Intelligence Service.
This spy ring is believed to have used these individuals’ access to the MoD to steal significant amounts of highly classified information.
The country’s chief prosecutor, Ivan Geshev, described the espionage as “unparalleled since 1944.”
ATLANTIC OCEAN (July 19, 2008) A French F-2 Rafale fighter prepares to launch during combined French and American carrier qualifications aboard the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71). This event marks the first integrated U.S. and French carrier qualifications aboard a U.S. aircraft carrier. The Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group is participating in Joint Task Force Exercise “Operation Brimstone” off the Atlantic coast until the end of July. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Christopher Hall/Released)
This is the path Russia will most likely take. Look for European defense plants to suddenly suffer mysterious fires, for there to be disruptions in internet services at vital choke points, and for other surreptitious attempts to undercut defense-related activity. You can bet on this just as sure as you can bet on an active PR campaign to restart the Nord Stream-2 pipeline. It is all part of Moscow’s plan.
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is now an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments, and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.
