The B-21 Raider is a quantum leap in the areas of stealth and information technologies. Its integration into the US Air Force’s bomber fleet would provide a significant advantage over its adversaries.
However, at an estimated cost of $700 million per aircraft, the B-21 is a huge financial investment for an already strained defense budget.
On top of that, the USAF is interested in a fleet of over 100 B-21s, an investment that is certain to further strain the budget.
What is the right step forward in regard to the B-21? Should the Air Force invest in a project that will cost billions in taxpayer dollars, or should they pull the plug and risk losing a game changing capability?
The Case for the B-21 Raider
The B-21 Raider is designed to be a dual-capable, penetrating strike stealth bomber, capable of delivering both conventional and nuclear munitions.
It is intended to operate in high-threat environments, ensuring the U.S. maintains its air superiority. The B-21 will replace aging bombers like the B-1 Lancer and B-2 Spirit, which are becoming increasingly costly to maintain and less effective against modern air defenses.
The B-21’s advanced stealth capabilities, open systems architecture, and ability to integrate future technologies make it a critical component of the U.S. military’s long-term strategy.
Its ability to perform a wide range of missions, from intelligence gathering to electronic warfare, enhances its value as a versatile and indispensable asset.
While the initial costs are high, proponents argue that the B-21 will be more cost-effective in the long run.
The Air Force has managed to reduce the projected cost for the first five production lots by 28%, saving over $5 billion.
This trend suggests that as production scales up, the unit cost will continue to decrease, making the B-21 a more affordable option over time.
The Case Against the B-21 Raider
Critics argue that the B-21’s high initial costs are prohibitive. The estimated cost per aircraft has risen to over $700 million, and the total program cost is expected to maybe exceed $100 billion.
In an era of budget constraints and competing priorities, such a significant investment in a single weapons system is seen by some as imprudent.
The substantial investment in the B-21 program means that other critical areas may receive less funding.
Critics argue that the Air Force should focus on a more balanced approach, investing in a diverse range of capabilities rather than concentrating resources on a single platform.
This includes enhancing cyber capabilities, unmanned systems, and other emerging technologies that could offer more cost-effective solutions to modern threats.
There is also concern based on historical precedents. The B-2 Spirit program, for example, was initially planned to produce over 100 aircraft but was cut to just 21 due to escalating costs. Critics fear that the B-21 program could follow a similar trajectory, resulting in fewer aircraft at a higher cost per unit.
The B-21 is not the only multibillion dollar project being pushed by the USAF. Other projects like the F-35, F-15EX, and the NGAD project have all been eating significant financial investments in the defense budget.
Critics argue that the USAF needs to get its priorities in order. Pursuing one or two large scale projects is necessary, but several at the same time? Juggling too many ambitious projects is likely to have consequences in the long term.
The Air Force Wants Over 100??
The USAF has expressed interest in procuring a fleet of 150 to 200 B-21 stealth bombers. Proponents of the B-21 argue that a larger fleet is necessary to maintain strategic deterrence and operational flexibility.
The current geopolitical landscape, with rising threats from countries like China and Russia, necessitates a robust and capable bomber force. A larger fleet would ensure that the U.S. can sustain prolonged operations and respond to multiple threats simultaneously.
A larger fleet also mitigates the risk of attrition. In the event of a conflict, having a greater number of B-21s ensures that the loss of a few aircraft does not significantly degrade the Air Force’s capabilities. This redundancy is crucial for maintaining a credible deterrent and ensuring mission success under adverse conditions.
Increasing the production rate could also lead to greater economic efficiency. Higher production volumes typically result in lower unit costs due to economies of scale.
This means that the overall cost per aircraft could decrease if the Air Force commits to purchasing more units.
Opponents argue that the current plan to purchase 100 B-21s is already a significant financial commitment.
Doubling or tripling this number would place an enormous strain on the defense budget, potentially at the expense of other critical programs.
The opportunity cost of such a decision could be detrimental to the overall readiness and modernization of the armed forces.
There is also the argument that future technological advancements may render the B-21 obsolete sooner than expected.
Investing heavily in a large fleet of B-21s could limit the Air Force’s ability to adapt to new technologies and emerging threats.
A more flexible approach, with a smaller fleet and the option to invest in next-generation systems, might be more prudent.
Scaling up production significantly could introduce new challenges. The complexity of the B-21’s design and the need for stringent quality control measures mean that ramping up production quickly could lead to delays and cost overruns.
Additionally, maintaining a larger fleet would require substantial investment in infrastructure, training, and logistics, further increasing the overall cost.
What To Do with the B-21 Raider?
The debate over the B-21 Raider’s cost and the number of units the Air Force should procure is complex and multifaceted.
On one hand, the B-21 represents a critical investment in maintaining the U.S. military’s technological edge and strategic deterrence capabilities. On the other hand, the high costs and potential opportunity costs raise valid concerns about the program’s long-term sustainability and impact on the broader defense budget.
Ultimately, the decision will hinge on balancing these competing priorities and assessing the evolving security environment.
Whether the Air Force should purchase more than 100 B-21s remains an open question, but it is clear that the B-21 Raider will play a pivotal role in shaping the future of U.S. airpower.
About the Author: Isaac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a 19FortyFive Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
