Canada Has a Big Message for the F-35: The Dassault Rafale Could Replace It

Key Points: Political friction between Canada and the US, stemming from the Trump administration’s rhetoric and trade actions, casts doubt on Canada’s $13 billion F-35 fighter deal.

-Prime Minister Mark Carney’s review, driven by concerns over US reliance, opens the door for alternatives like the French Dassault Rafale.

Dassault Rafale. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

-The Rafale offers “omni-role” versatility, lower operating costs (~$27k/hr vs F-35’s ~$42k/hr), and a stable French supply chain.

-However, it lacks stealth and has a higher unit cost (~$125M vs F-35’s ~$109M). While political desires for diversification favor France, the F-35’s stealth and lower purchase price remain compelling factors.  

What Would Make the Canadians Choose the Dassault Rafale Over the F-35?

Here we go again. President Donald Trump has picked a fight with one of America’s top allies.

This time it is with the Canadians. The Commander-in-Chief supposedly wants to be “commander” of Canada too – hopefully making it the 51st state somehow.

This has many people from the Great White North exclaiming that “Canada is not for sale.” Canadians are also hopping mad about tariffs targeting their exports to the United States.

F-35 Deal Could Be in Jeopardy: Enter the Dassault Rafale

Speaking of exports, U.S. defense firms are beginning to suffer from the trade war with Canada. The North American neighbors had previously sought to purchase 88 F-35s from Lockheed Martin in a deal worth $13 billion. The Canadian military has already paid for 16 stealth Lightning IIs, but they have yet to take delivery.

The Canadians Are Getting Cold Feet

This is because Prime Minister Mark Carney believes that his country relies too heavily on the United States for its security. Carney has told his civilian defense leadership to review the entire F-35 deal. This could mean that if Carney is elected full-time, he could cancel the agreement for the Joint Strike Fighter.

Dassault Rafale F3-R. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

What About the Dassault Rafale?

That would lead the Canadians to look elsewhere to rejuvenate their aging air force. One choice would be the French Dassault Rafale. The Rafale would be an intriguing choice. It is a multi-role fighter that gets high marks from customers. The Rafale can do it all – from air policing to air superiority. It can dogfight with any warbird in its class and is the right choice if ground strikes are needed.

The Rafale is non-stealthy, which is its downside. However, the French manufacture many of their parts domestically, ensuring a dependable supply and manufacturing chain. Meanwhile, the F-35 has numerous partners that either operate, produce, sustain, or contribute to the development of the F-35. These countries include the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, Norway, the Netherlands, Italy, and Denmark.

France Defense Contractors Punch Above Their Weight

France believes that their defense industrial base is just as good as any in Europe. Dassault claims it can deliver a Rafale in three years after the initial order. This could beat Lockheed Martin to the punch that must contend with the need to fulfill multiple orders plus the requirement to deliver spare parts and maintenance support to the 19 countries that fly it.

Dassault likes to call the Rafale an “omni-role” fighter that can bring to bear aerial attack and ground strike capabilities, as well as reconnaissance and electronic warfare, to the fight. The Rafales also have lower operating costs than the F-35. It requires $42,000 per hour to fly the Lightning II, while the Rafale can pinch the pennies down to around $27,000 per hour. 

However, unit costs make the Rafale more expensive. Dassault sells the Rafale for $125 million a piece, while the F-35 runs about $109 million per bird. This could make more sense for Canada.

Plus, the F-35 is stealthy and has omni-role abilities too, with dog-fighting and ground strike ability in spades.

Canada will take a look at all of these comparisons and contrasts. The F-35 is less expensive per unit but pricier to keep in the air. The Rafale would have higher up-front costs but would be cheaper to fly.

It Boils Down to Politics

The entire decision could come down to domestic political pressures. The Canadians have had it with the Americans. France is seen as less threatening with a more stable leadership. Emmanuel Macron hasn’t done anything to upset the Canadians. Carney, if elected, may want to diversify his security partnership. Conservative Pierre Poilievre could win the election to become prime minister, and he has already stated that if elected, he will review the F-35 order from the United States. 

However, it is likely that Poilievre would be able to mend fences with the Americans since he would be seen as someone of a similar political stripe to Trump. But the mercurial U.S. leader may have done lasting damage to the American-Canadian relationship. That could mean the French could swoop in and be the long-term security partner that Canada is looking for.

Operated by Flottille 12F, Aeronavale, based at Landivisiau.
Seen during a practice display routine at Zaragoza Air Base, Spain, during the 2016 NATO Tiger Meet (NTM).

Lockheed Martin would surely crow about the F-35 deal and use its lobbyists to convince U.S. lawmakers on Capitol Hill to also engage in some fighter plane diplomacy with the Canadians. The F-35 is manufactured in Texas, and Senators John Cornyn and Ted Cruz could place pressure on Carney or Poilievre to honor the F-35 deal.

We’ll see how this shakes out. The Canadians are tired of the Americans and their chaotic political leadership. A new form of Canadian nationalism and patriotism has emerged, and the French could capitalize on Canada’s lingering suspicions about the American relationship that were so strong in prior years. My money is still on the F-35, though, and I have faith that this brouhaha, along with the trade war and other damaging rhetoric, will subside. The Lightning II is stealthy and more survivable than the Rafale. It will serve the Canadians better down the road if Canada ever uses its military overseas. 

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.