Documents leaked in January last year stated German military experts envisage a scenario in which Russia defeats Ukraine and then attacks NATO’s Baltic members, spelling out how Putin could seek to realize his ambition.
Russian President Putin has clarified his feelings about the Baltic states, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. Once part of the Soviet Union, they broke away after its collapse. Putin wants them back.
Kaliningrad’s Position Is Of Strategic Importance
Kaliningrad Oblast is a Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea’s southern coast and the Russian Federation’s westernmost region. Although it has no land connection with Russia, it covers approximately 5,800 square miles and has a population of around one million. Its capital is the city of Kaliningrad.
The region gets most of its supplies by rail, passing through Belarus, a close ally of Putin’s, and Lithuania. That rail line is a key choke point.
The Suwalki corridor (also known as the Suwalki Gap) separates the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea from Belarus. Now, it is home to thousands of Russian troops, including advanced fighter jets and nuclear weapons. The corridor is also the only way to travel by road or rail from Poland and Central Europe to the Baltic states—arguably NATO’s most exposed members.
The region gets some supplies through the port from St. Petersburg. Kaliningrad is home to the Russian Baltic Sea fleet. It is the only Russian port free from ice year-round.
Kaliningrad, formerly Königsberg, was a city settled by 13th-century Teutonic knights. It was the capital of Prussia and was seized by the Soviet Union from Germany in World War II. Kaliningrad extends Russia’s capacity to project its power into the Baltic region, containing air defenses, electronic warfare units to scramble GPS systems, cruise missiles, and more.
Armata T-14 Tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the oblast became part of the Russian Federation. It maintained good relations with the West until Putin annexed Crimea in 2014.
Kaliningrad and Ukraine War Linked
A Lithuanian intelligence report said Russia is responding to NATO’s new, expanded presence in the Baltic by massively expanding its own military presence in the region.
Since it invaded Ukraine, Russia has frequently threatened Poland and the Baltic States with reprisals for their positions on the conflict, often rattling its saber with military exercises in Kaliningrad and Belarus. However, this didn’t deter Warsaw and Vilnius, among the first European powers to offer military aid to Kyiv, deepening Moscow’s resentment.
Some analysts believed that Moscow planned on a quick defeat of Ukraine, followed by the cutting of the Swalki corridor and a provocative action or two on the Lithuania border with Belarus to gauge NATO’s reaction. The move would cut the Baltic NATO members off from the rest of Europe, exposing them to further Russian attacks.
Putin was banking heavily, and possibly still is, on Western disunity.
Sweden and Finland Change The Outlook
Once Sweden and Finland became NATO members, the entire landscape of the Baltic changed. The Baltic Sea has become a NATO lake, with Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg within easy striking distance of Sweden’s missiles and aircraft.
Russian T-14 Armata Tank. Image Credit: Social Media Screenshot.
Russia has moved nuclear weapons into Kaliningrad to protect it against an invasion by the Baltic nations to the north, Poland from the south, and Sweden and NATO from the west. It is now isolated.
Russia has long accused NATO of seeking to encircle it, with Putin citing the claim as part of the justification for Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. But his actions in invading Ukraine have caused Finland, and now, more importantly, with Sweden becoming the newest member of NATO, Putin has inadvertently placed his forces at a severe disadvantage in Kaliningrad Oblast.
Former Lithuanian foreign minister Linas Linkevicius said Russia’s previous false accusations that NATO surrounds it are now becoming a reality.
However, with the war in Ukraine now consuming vast amounts of manpower, tanks, aircraft, and equipment, Putin doesn’t have the resources to open a second front using Kaliningrad and Belarus as launching points.
Despite this, Lithuania refers to the Kaliningrad oblast as the “biggest threat in the region,” and Poland remains concerned about Russian artillery and missile attacks emanating from the Kaliningrad oblast against NATO nations.
T-14 Armata Tank from Russia
Kaliningrad’s future depends on how weakened or strong Russia is after the war with Ukraine is finally over. Russia will not want to lose it, as it would be a blow to Putin’s prestige. However, a demilitarized Kaliningrad would guarantee peace for a time, perhaps even a return to an independent Königsberg.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a 19FortyFive National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing for 19FortyFive, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications
