Why We’re Not Worried About China’s J-20 Stealth Fighter

Key Points: This analysis challenges recent Chinese claims, based on simulations, that its J-20S fighter dominates the US F-22 Raptor in dogfights.

-While a 95% win rate was cited, this required teaming the J-20S with three drones; 1-v-1 simulations reportedly showed the F-22 winning over 90% of the time due to superior radar.

-The F-22 maintains significant advantages in stealth (estimated ~100x smaller radar cross-section than J-20) and maneuverability.

-Some Reason to Worry: Although the J-20 boasts longer range, the F-22’s overall combat effectiveness, internal cannon, and upcoming integration with US ‘loyal wingman’ drones ensure its continued air superiority.

J-20: China’s Original Stealth Fighter

The Chinese J-20 is China’s attempt to answer the F-22 as a fifth-generation dogfighter. It represented a significant leap in the United States’ military aviation capabilities. 

Developed by Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, the J-20 is designed to perform various roles, including air superiority and strike missions. It features an elongated fuselage, forward-swept wings, and canards, which enhance its agility and maneuverability but lessen its stealthiness. 

The Chinese continue to highlight the J-20’s attributes, even going so far as to say it wins 95 percent of simulated dogfights. One is left to question if this is just an attempt to bolster sales of its aircraft elsewhere. 

Why the J-20 Has Some Claims As Powerful

A team of Chinese researchers recently conducted a simulated aerial battle between the newly unveiled twin-seater J-20S and the US F-22 Raptor.

The simulation was conducted by a research team led by Zhang Dong, an associate professor at Northwestern Polytechnical University (NPU), a major player in studying cutting-edge military technologies. The NPU merged with the People’s Liberation Army Military Engineering Institute.

Zhang’s team simulated air battles using a state-of-the-art digital system. “Our platform includes realistic six-degree-of-freedom models for real fighter jets in service, sensor models, and missile simulations, capable of replicating real-world manned-unmanned air combat,” they wrote.

This 95 percent win rate was attributed to the J-20S’s capability to collaborate with three unmanned aircraft, commonly known as loyal-wingman drones. China unleashed a scale model at an airshow in November.

A report from the Chinese state-owned publication Global Times claimed that the J-20S is more capable of tactical command and control, electronic disruption, and situational awareness and has been designed for conducting both manned and unmanned collaborative combat.

However, in the same report, simulations also revealed that a single J-20 with eight medium-range air-to-air missiles had a less than 10% chance of defeating an F-22 with six AIM-120C missiles. The US F-22’s radar had the advantage in detection, even though the Chinese missiles had a greater range.

US Air Force Loyal Wingman Drones Are Developing Too

While the 95 percent splash that China made using four total aircraft—one J-20 and three drones—made its way through the media, China’s less than 10 percent chance in a one-to-one dogfight is the real ratio to watch.

But what about the three drones? The USAF is also testing its Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program, known as the “loyal wingman” program. And F-22s, F-35s, and the newly unveiled F-47s will all be able to control CCAs in combat. 

The F-47, F-22, and F-35 will be able to operate in the Air Force’s Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program, a multi-pronged initiative to test, develop, and implement new autonomous and manned-unmanned aircraft teaming concepts.

It is also known as the Loyal Wingman concept, which is capable of flying independently or in small groups and will be used to counter China’s anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities. The F-22 will be able to deploy with these as well.

The F-22 Is Better, Sorry, China 

Some articles in the CCP-controlled media claim that the J-20 is more stealthy than the F-22. That is bunk. Despite being designed in the 1990s and flying for 20 years, it is still the stealthiest fighter, bar none.

The F-22 has a radar cross-section estimated to be as much as 15 times smaller than the F-35 and roughly 100 times smaller than China’s J-20. India’s Air Force claims it can detect J-20s in the air. 

The F-22 has superior maneuverability over the J-20.

The Weapons 

The armament issue has also been conveniently overlooked. The J-20 has been reported to be capable of carrying 14 air-to-air missiles. But eight of those would be externally carried on pylons under the wings. That would negate the stealth even further. 

The J-20 can carry four  PL-15 long-range missiles internally, plus two short-range PL-10s in smaller side internal bays. In contrast, the F-22 can carry six medium-range AIM-120 radar-guided air-to-air missiles in the main weapons bay and two short-range AIM-9 infrared heat-seeking air-to-air missiles in internal side bays. 

Plus, the F-22 has one M61A2 20-millimeter cannon with 480 rounds. As American F-4 Phantom pilots learned in Vietnam, air-to-air dogfights often end up within cannon range. The J-20 doesn’t have one.  

The J-20 Does Have Some Range

This is an area where the Chinese fighter has a definite advantage. The J-20 can travel over 1,000 nautical miles on internal fuel, nearly doubling the F-22’s 600 nautical miles. 

This may soon change, however, as Lockheed Martin is reportedly developing stealth fuel tanks to fit on the F-22, which could increase its range to nearly the same range. Both aircraft are capable of supercruise. 

However, in air-to-air combat, the F-22 remains the king and will remain so until the F-47s are welcomed into the Air Force’s fighter jets. 

J-20 Photos 

J-20 Stealth Fighter. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Image: Chinese Internet.

Image: Chinese Internet.

Image: Creative Commons.

About the Author

Steve Balestrieri is a 19FortyFive National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing for 19FortyFive, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.