Mark Carney has his victory and his mandate. During the campaign he promised to revisit a deal that would eventually bring eighty-eight F-35s to Canada.
The same deterioration of relations with the United States that gave Carney his victory has also made the F-35 deeply unpopular.
As the world’s most prolific stealth fighter, the F-35 makes sense from a logistical and longevity standpoint.
Nevertheless, Carney does not have a good set of options for curtailing or replacing the deal in the immediate future.
Canada and the F-35: The History
Canada has long linked its defense industrial base strategy to the United States. While Avro Canada produced some important aircraft in the 1950s (the CF-100 Canuck and the aborted CF-105 Arrow), Canada’s air forces became largely reliant on American equipment during and after the Cold War.
As such, it was not surprising that Canada displayed early interest in the F-35. The Canadian government also expected engagement with the F-35 project to help the country’s aviation industry. Stephen Harper’s government originally agreed to acquire 65 F-35s in 2010, in a process that was riddled with controversy largely because of a lack of alternative bids. The fact that the F-35 is not quite like any other fighter on the international market made comparison difficult, of course.
By 201,5 the F-35 had become a drag on Harper’s electoral fortunes, and Justin Trudeau won office in part based on a promise to review the F-35 deal.
Over the course of this debate the F-35 suffered its own difficulties in procurement delays and cost overruns, providing ammunition for critics of the aircraft. After an exceedingly long and torturous process, Canada agreed in 2022 to purchase eighty-eight F-35 Joint Strike Fighters from Lockheed Martin to replace the Royal Canadian Air Force’s aging fleet of CF-18 Hornets.
But all of that preceded President Trump’s second election. Trump’s rhetoric immediately damaged US-Canada relations, with threats of tariffs and of annexation turning an amicable relationship rapidly into a hostile one. The F-35, as a symbol of US-Canadian cooperation, almost inevitably became a political touchstone in Canada’s recent election, again putting the acquisition in doubt.
The Future of the Trans-Atlantic DIB
Canada isn’t the only place where the F-35 is having trouble. Germany is seeking alternatives to the F-35 out of concern about its long-term relationship with the United States. The F-35, memorably described by Jonathan Caverley as “the American Belt and Road” is tightly identified in symbolic and materials terms with American power. Concerns about an “off switch” are overblown, but the F-35 is a sophisticated piece of technology that will depend for its entire life cycle on updates and upgrades from the US defense industrial base.
A related problem has to do with the incestuosness of the trans-Atlantic defense industrial base. As Andrew Latham has pointed out, all of the competitors to the F-35 (including the Dassault Rafale, the Eurofighter Typhoon, and the Saab Gripen) contain US components and are subject to US export controls.
A Canada that went with the Gripen instead of the F-35 wouldn’t be quite as exposed to the vagaries of US security policy, but Ottawa would still depend on Washington for the key components and upgrades necessary to keep the fleet in the air.
Carney’s dilemma thus arrives as part of a package of problems associated with the potential disintegration of the trans-Atlantic defense industrial base. Every country in NATO is now contemplating increases in defense spending and worrying about its relationship with the United States.
Canada is more exposed than most because of its geographic position and because of Trump’s bizarre fixation with the “51st state,” but Ottawa’s problems are those of the West in microcosm. Canada has the great fortune and misfortune of living next to the United States.
If Canada decides to step back from the F-35 purchase, it could send the already poor relations between Ottawa and Washington spiraling in a downward direction.
F-35 and Canada: What Happens Now?
Thus there’s no question Canada is in a quandary. The F-35 is the best bet for the health of Canada’s defense aerospace sector; no competitor can offer the same degree of technological and industrial integration.
F-35 Image Credit: Lockheed Martin.
Image: Creative Commons.
Image of F-35 at sea. Image Credit: US Navy Flickr.
Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Photo by Liz Lutz Job Reference Number: FP17-17068 WMJ Reference Number: 17-17068 Customers: Carolyn Nelson Event: Luke AFB Aerials: Norway F-35 Aerials Location: Luke Air Force Base Date: 08-25-2017 Time: 1000-1130
A U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning II fighter jet performs during the California International Airshow in Salinas, California, Oct. 30, 2021. The F-35A is a fifth generation multi-role fighter platform. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Andrew D. Sarver)
The F-35, notwithstanding its important flaws, is also the best fighter available, at least until sixth generation fighters start to come online at some point in the 2030s. Canada cannot escape the reality of its proximity to the United States and the consequent entanglement in America’s political economy.
Trump or no, Canada’s strategic orientation has been locked around the United States since the 1920s, and nothing that Prime Minister Carney can do will change that fact. For all that Ottawa will complain, Canada is still likely to go forward with the F-35 for the foreseeable future.
About the Author: Dr. Robert Farley
Dr. Robert Farley has taught security and diplomacy courses at the Patterson School since 2005. He received his BS from the University of Oregon in 1997, and his Ph. D. from the University of Washington in 2004. Dr. Farley is the author of Grounded: The Case for Abolishing the United States Air Force (University Press of Kentucky, 2014), the Battleship Book (Wildside, 2016), Patents for Power: Intellectual Property Law and the Diffusion of Military Technology (University of Chicago, 2020), and most recently Waging War with Gold: National Security and the Finance Domain Across the Ages (Lynne Rienner, 2023). He has contributed extensively to a number of journals and magazines, including the National Interest, the Diplomat: APAC, World Politics Review, and the American Prospect. Dr. Farley is also a founder and senior editor of Lawyers, Guns and Money.
