Has Donald Trump wrecked the single most important relationship in American foreign policy?
Remaining on good terms with Canada is a diplomatic slam dunk, a task so easy to do right that most every President since Canadian independence has succeeded with ease.
And yet we are now in a situation where relations with America’s northern neighbor are arguably more precarious than at any time since the nineteenth century.
Trump Goes to War on Canada
Trump has created this problem for himself and for America.
While it is likely that any Canadian government would have reacted poorly to becoming a target in Trump’s tariff war (especially only a few short years after having concluded a multilateral trade deal with Trump), the problem has only been exacerbated by Trump’s characterization of Canada as America’s future “51st State.”
The tariff war threatens to unsettle an economic relationship that is critical to the productivity of industries on both sides of the border, productivity that is dependent upon having secure supply chains and a secure investment environment. Joining the United States is a fringe position in Canada and has become less popular over the last few months. Specious claims about Canadian fentanyl smuggling have also exhausted much goodwill that Canadians might have towards the US.
From Bad to Worse
And what has this foreign policy achieved? Thus far, not much benefit is evident. Trump managed to elect the first Canadian Prime Minister to run on an avowedly anti-American platform for several generations.
Mark Carney’s election as Prime Minister only came as a shock when compared to electoral expectations of a few months ago, when Conservative party leader Pierre Poiliviere seemed like a mortal lock. Trump’s inability to control himself made it easy for Liberals to link Poiliviere to the American President, turning an expected Conservative triumph into an easy Liberal win.
On Tuesday, Carney visited Washington for his first official meeting with Trump, and the atmosphere remained frosty, if not as explosive as the President’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Trump did not back away from either his threat to impose destructive tariffs on Canada, or on his quixotic quest to annex America’s neighbor. For his part, Carney emphasized Canadian sovereignty and did not back away from the challenge of economic conflict with the United States.
It is surely bad for the United States when a Canadian prime minister sees antagonism towards Washington as a winning domestic political strategy.
Trump’s Tariff Challenge Has Canada In a Bind
There are, of course, limits to Canada’s freedom of action.
Given its geographic position Canada can only go so far in terms of confrontation with the United States. Canada is more dependent on trade with the United States than pretty much any other major economy in the world, and so Ottawa will need to suffer American high-handedness to at least some degree.
For example, Canada cannot divorce itself from the US defense industrial base, even for iconic American weapons like the F-35. But the direction and degree of Canada’s lean remains in question. Canada can still reorient aspects of its economy towards the European Union, and it can rely to some degree on its relations with the Commonwealth. These do not replace the United States but they do backstop the damage that Washington can cause. In the long term, pushing Canada towards Europe is not a win for the United States, especially if the US comes to regard the EU as a geopolitical rival.
What Happens Next? Canada: America’s New Enemy?
It is thus true enough that Canada has nowhere to go, and thus must make some kind of amends with the Trump administration. But in international politics degrees of enthusiasm and of cooperation matter; a Canada that views the US as a partner is different than a Canada that views the US as the Neighbor from Hell.
F-35A Fighter for Canada. Image Created by Grok 3.
As Russia has demonstrated, the character of relations between a great power and its neighbors can vary mightily, and it does the US no favors to create suspicion and paranoia in Ottawa.
The United States has had the extraordinary good fortune of having pliable, friendly neighbors for over the last century, a situation that Moscow and Beijing can only fantasize about. Trump is in the process of squandering that good fortune, and while it may behoove Democrats to crow about his missteps, the unfortunate consequences could be long-lasting.
About the Author: Dr. Robert Farley
Dr. Robert Farley has taught security and diplomacy courses at the Patterson School since 2005. He received his BS from the University of Oregon in 1997, and his Ph. D. from the University of Washington in 2004. Dr. Farley is the author of Grounded: The Case for Abolishing the United States Air Force (University Press of Kentucky, 2014), the Battleship Book (Wildside, 2016), Patents for Power: Intellectual Property Law and the Diffusion of Military Technology (University of Chicago, 2020), and most recently Waging War with Gold: National Security and the Finance Domain Across the Ages (Lynne Rienner, 2023). He has contributed extensively to a number of journals and magazines, including the National Interest, the Diplomat: APAC, World Politics Review, and the American Prospect. Dr. Farley is also a founder and senior editor of Lawyers, Guns and Money.
